The Wolf Den #54 - Shaky Corn, Satoshi's Ghost, The Pareto Principle, More
thewolfden.substack.com
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companies: VOYAGER and PHEMEX.I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I use Phemex for trading with leverage . Sign up to both with the links above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them both out - you know that I never endorse a product that I do not use!50 BTC moved from one of the first Bitcoin wallets to an unknown wallet and the crypto community lost their collective minds. Is Satoshi Nakamoto finally moving his coins? Is he just testing a transaction before moving more and dumping his fortune on the market? Did someone move the coins to prove that Craig Wright is not Satoshi?The real question is - who cares?Once again, the Bitcoin community is overreacting to a near non-event in spectacular fashion, speculating with 0 evidence on the meaning of the event and likely panic selling as a result.In crypto, we call this "Wednesday."It is an innate human characteristic to look for narrative and meaning in things. By now, you likely know that narrative carries little weight for me in my analysis of crypto markets. If some holders decided to panic sell on the news (which I still can't understand, because BTC moving from wallet to wallet is neither bullish or bearish), then there were clearly willing buyers there to absorb the orders - a beautiful and pure free market. It's interesting to note that spot and derivate prices diverged (only be $20 or so) on the drop, with over-leveraged traders eating most of the losses. Once again, this was probably a case of an opportunistic seller taking advantage of a combination of stacked, over-leveraged longs and a news event to move price down with minimal friction. A long squeeze with a story.Regardless of the reason, the drop has dampened my immediate bullishness and has put me into a "wait and see "mode for trading Bitcoin. I don't see any good reason to enter either a long or short position - I can see both short and long time frame cases for both sides. When I am this unsure, I do not put my money at risk. SINCE I WROTE THIS, BITCOIN HAS STARTED TO DROP. MOST OF THE CHART REQUESTS WERE COMPLETED BEFORE THAT HAPPENED, SO MAKE SURE TO UPDATE THEM.Let's chat about legacy markets.Today's unemployment report showed a loss of another 2.4 million jobs in the United States. Every Thursday these terrible numbers are reported... and the market goes up. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues. As you know, I am once again on the sidelines (as a trader, not as an investor) in legacy markets as well. The stock market is utterly irrational and disconnected from the economy, charts are effectively useless, and there is no way to predict what is likely to happen. It should go back down - but I would hate to lose money before it does (if it does). I also reacted very quickly near the top, so anywhere that I buy back will likely be a net gain.Important to note that I have a number of friends who are traders and hedge fund researchers on Wall Street and ALL of them are getting absolutely destroyed in the past few months. Like most of us, they cannot understand the meteoric rise from the bottom and have been getting slashed and chopped trying to alternately short and long at the wrong times.I mentioned on Twitter yesterday that it was the first time I felt my old friend FOMO starting to kick in. I had a moment when I looked at Disney stock, got legitimately rattled and thought briefly about buying back in. Disney bottomed at $79.07 - my bids were at $79. The stock is up 50% since then, and I had every opportunity to buy in the past months. I assumed it would continue back down, because that's what common sense would tell anyone. My hedge fund friends were super bearish on Disney - parks were closed, cruises are dead, movies aren't happening. Yesterday I had a brief moment where I was legitimately pissed that I had "missed out." I don't care who you are or how long you trade for, these feelings always tend to creep in - and usually at the bottom and top. If my emotions are an indicator (they always are for me, whether right or not), then I believe the top could be in for the stock market for now. If I had pulled the trigger, I would have expected to see price immediately drop. That's how the market works, that's why controlling emotions is important and that's why patterns appear on charts. I can guarantee that I am not the only one who is feeling these emotions right now. If anything, I should have immediately SHORTED Disney.The market has opened since I wrote this and stocks are down. A general note - whenever I draw a line on a chart, it should be viewed as elastic and not static. It is more of a zone. So the areas around those lines are usually more accurate. Further, I try to use multiple techniques and indicators on various charts, so if you are learning TA, you should read through all of these to see how I blindly look at a chart.If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 10 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-crypto-newsletter-issue-10-219754 and have it sent to you) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!What’s In This Issue:BitcoinTrading Support And ResistanceAltcoinsInstitutional Money Is HereThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Christopher InksDoom Everywhere = Markets UpThe Pareto PrincipleChart Requests
The Wolf Den #54 - Shaky Corn, Satoshi's Ghost, The Pareto Principle, More
The Wolf Den #54 - Shaky Corn, Satoshi's…
The Wolf Den #54 - Shaky Corn, Satoshi's Ghost, The Pareto Principle, More
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companies: VOYAGER and PHEMEX.I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I use Phemex for trading with leverage . Sign up to both with the links above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them both out - you know that I never endorse a product that I do not use!50 BTC moved from one of the first Bitcoin wallets to an unknown wallet and the crypto community lost their collective minds. Is Satoshi Nakamoto finally moving his coins? Is he just testing a transaction before moving more and dumping his fortune on the market? Did someone move the coins to prove that Craig Wright is not Satoshi?The real question is - who cares?Once again, the Bitcoin community is overreacting to a near non-event in spectacular fashion, speculating with 0 evidence on the meaning of the event and likely panic selling as a result.In crypto, we call this "Wednesday."It is an innate human characteristic to look for narrative and meaning in things. By now, you likely know that narrative carries little weight for me in my analysis of crypto markets. If some holders decided to panic sell on the news (which I still can't understand, because BTC moving from wallet to wallet is neither bullish or bearish), then there were clearly willing buyers there to absorb the orders - a beautiful and pure free market. It's interesting to note that spot and derivate prices diverged (only be $20 or so) on the drop, with over-leveraged traders eating most of the losses. Once again, this was probably a case of an opportunistic seller taking advantage of a combination of stacked, over-leveraged longs and a news event to move price down with minimal friction. A long squeeze with a story.Regardless of the reason, the drop has dampened my immediate bullishness and has put me into a "wait and see "mode for trading Bitcoin. I don't see any good reason to enter either a long or short position - I can see both short and long time frame cases for both sides. When I am this unsure, I do not put my money at risk. SINCE I WROTE THIS, BITCOIN HAS STARTED TO DROP. MOST OF THE CHART REQUESTS WERE COMPLETED BEFORE THAT HAPPENED, SO MAKE SURE TO UPDATE THEM.Let's chat about legacy markets.Today's unemployment report showed a loss of another 2.4 million jobs in the United States. Every Thursday these terrible numbers are reported... and the market goes up. It will be interesting to see if this pattern continues. As you know, I am once again on the sidelines (as a trader, not as an investor) in legacy markets as well. The stock market is utterly irrational and disconnected from the economy, charts are effectively useless, and there is no way to predict what is likely to happen. It should go back down - but I would hate to lose money before it does (if it does). I also reacted very quickly near the top, so anywhere that I buy back will likely be a net gain.Important to note that I have a number of friends who are traders and hedge fund researchers on Wall Street and ALL of them are getting absolutely destroyed in the past few months. Like most of us, they cannot understand the meteoric rise from the bottom and have been getting slashed and chopped trying to alternately short and long at the wrong times.I mentioned on Twitter yesterday that it was the first time I felt my old friend FOMO starting to kick in. I had a moment when I looked at Disney stock, got legitimately rattled and thought briefly about buying back in. Disney bottomed at $79.07 - my bids were at $79. The stock is up 50% since then, and I had every opportunity to buy in the past months. I assumed it would continue back down, because that's what common sense would tell anyone. My hedge fund friends were super bearish on Disney - parks were closed, cruises are dead, movies aren't happening. Yesterday I had a brief moment where I was legitimately pissed that I had "missed out." I don't care who you are or how long you trade for, these feelings always tend to creep in - and usually at the bottom and top. If my emotions are an indicator (they always are for me, whether right or not), then I believe the top could be in for the stock market for now. If I had pulled the trigger, I would have expected to see price immediately drop. That's how the market works, that's why controlling emotions is important and that's why patterns appear on charts. I can guarantee that I am not the only one who is feeling these emotions right now. If anything, I should have immediately SHORTED Disney.The market has opened since I wrote this and stocks are down. A general note - whenever I draw a line on a chart, it should be viewed as elastic and not static. It is more of a zone. So the areas around those lines are usually more accurate. Further, I try to use multiple techniques and indicators on various charts, so if you are learning TA, you should read through all of these to see how I blindly look at a chart.If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 10 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-crypto-newsletter-issue-10-219754 and have it sent to you) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!What’s In This Issue:BitcoinTrading Support And ResistanceAltcoinsInstitutional Money Is HereThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Christopher InksDoom Everywhere = Markets UpThe Pareto PrincipleChart Requests