The Wolf Den #50 - Halving, Alt Trades, Poker Vs. Trading And More
thewolfden.substack.com
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companies: VOYAGER and PHEMEX.I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I use Phemex for trading with leverage . Sign up to both with the links above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them both out - you know that I never endorse a product that I do not use!The Bitcoin halving is finally behind us.The halving was all the rage in crypto for the past few months, with pundits and experts making wild predictions in both directions about the potential impacts of the event. Many were waiting for the very moment of the halving to place their bets on price direction, assuming that there would be significant volatility. This event was the source of endless bickering and name calling, controversy and emotion.As I expected when I said that the halving reminded me of Y2K (for those of you old enough to remember), the moment passed with little fanfare. There was neither an immediate pump or dump, as many predicted for the past few weeks, months and years would happen. It was a nonevent for traders.Don't get me wrong - the halving is important. The idea that supply is cut in half every 4 years, guaranteeing that Bitcoin remains a deflationary asset is fundamental to the belief in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. As a believer in the future of Bitcoin, the concept is truly essential and is what sets it apart from other forms of money.Great.That does not mean that it matters to traders. By now, you likely know where I stand on fundamentals and Bitcoin. I solely trade the chart when it comes to Bitcoin - I don't pay attention to narrative, because I have seen time and time again that these "events" do not move the market. The Halving, Chinese New Year, Wall Street Bonuses, Tax Returns, STIMULUS CHECKS - these were all supposed to massively impact Bitcoin price. These narratives are all cut from the same cloth - conjecture, speculation and hopium.Narratives in the crypto space are like miracles in religion - they give people a reason to justify things that they cannot explain. They need a story to give them an excuse for their losses, or to make them feel brilliant if price goes their way.We have all seen it - everyone screams MANIPULATION! when they lose money. This generally happens when they are on the wrong side of a significant move. There has to be a reason, be it the halving, a whale selling to cover margin calls in the stock market, China banning crypto or bitcoin loving unicorns flying in from India to steal our coins.People always seem to need answers for why things happen.The simple fact is, you losing money does not mean that a force is conspiring against you. It just means you lost. You don't need an outside explanation - you just need an idea for the next trade.Blaming outside forces for your losses is just your inability to accept that a loss is your fault. You are personally accountable for your losses. You should understand the risks of trading any market that you choose to participate in. If you need a narrative, then you are likely too emotional or unstable to be an effective trader.Bitcoin is a free market, unaffected by narrative (for now). There’s a buy order for every sell order. Large players moving the market with their orders is not manipulation - it is a key facet of the free market. They just happen to have more money than the rest of us. It's your job to do what they do and not be their prey. It's that simple.Bottom line - if you think the market is manipulated, don’t put your money in it. If you need a narrative to explain why price does what it does, you may not be cut out for this.Take what the market gives, accept your fate, claim responsibility for the outcome and move on to the next opportunity.What's In This Issue?Bitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisDouble Tops - A Quick LessonThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Dave ChapmanTrading Lessons Learned From Poker The Men Who Stare At ChartsJPMorgan Continues To Build Their BlockchainPaul Tudor Jones Has 2% Exposure To BitcoinAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsGreat Analogy For Fed Intervention In The MarketUsing Leverage To Mitigate Counterparty RiskCascading Liquidations And BitcoinPhemexVoyager
The Wolf Den #50 - Halving, Alt Trades, Poker Vs. Trading And More
The Wolf Den #50 - Halving, Alt Trades, Poker…
The Wolf Den #50 - Halving, Alt Trades, Poker Vs. Trading And More
This newsletter is sponsored by 2 amazing companies: VOYAGER and PHEMEX.I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I use Phemex for trading with leverage . Sign up to both with the links above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them both out - you know that I never endorse a product that I do not use!The Bitcoin halving is finally behind us.The halving was all the rage in crypto for the past few months, with pundits and experts making wild predictions in both directions about the potential impacts of the event. Many were waiting for the very moment of the halving to place their bets on price direction, assuming that there would be significant volatility. This event was the source of endless bickering and name calling, controversy and emotion.As I expected when I said that the halving reminded me of Y2K (for those of you old enough to remember), the moment passed with little fanfare. There was neither an immediate pump or dump, as many predicted for the past few weeks, months and years would happen. It was a nonevent for traders.Don't get me wrong - the halving is important. The idea that supply is cut in half every 4 years, guaranteeing that Bitcoin remains a deflationary asset is fundamental to the belief in Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. As a believer in the future of Bitcoin, the concept is truly essential and is what sets it apart from other forms of money.Great.That does not mean that it matters to traders. By now, you likely know where I stand on fundamentals and Bitcoin. I solely trade the chart when it comes to Bitcoin - I don't pay attention to narrative, because I have seen time and time again that these "events" do not move the market. The Halving, Chinese New Year, Wall Street Bonuses, Tax Returns, STIMULUS CHECKS - these were all supposed to massively impact Bitcoin price. These narratives are all cut from the same cloth - conjecture, speculation and hopium.Narratives in the crypto space are like miracles in religion - they give people a reason to justify things that they cannot explain. They need a story to give them an excuse for their losses, or to make them feel brilliant if price goes their way.We have all seen it - everyone screams MANIPULATION! when they lose money. This generally happens when they are on the wrong side of a significant move. There has to be a reason, be it the halving, a whale selling to cover margin calls in the stock market, China banning crypto or bitcoin loving unicorns flying in from India to steal our coins.People always seem to need answers for why things happen.The simple fact is, you losing money does not mean that a force is conspiring against you. It just means you lost. You don't need an outside explanation - you just need an idea for the next trade.Blaming outside forces for your losses is just your inability to accept that a loss is your fault. You are personally accountable for your losses. You should understand the risks of trading any market that you choose to participate in. If you need a narrative, then you are likely too emotional or unstable to be an effective trader.Bitcoin is a free market, unaffected by narrative (for now). There’s a buy order for every sell order. Large players moving the market with their orders is not manipulation - it is a key facet of the free market. They just happen to have more money than the rest of us. It's your job to do what they do and not be their prey. It's that simple.Bottom line - if you think the market is manipulated, don’t put your money in it. If you need a narrative to explain why price does what it does, you may not be cut out for this.Take what the market gives, accept your fate, claim responsibility for the outcome and move on to the next opportunity.What's In This Issue?Bitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisDouble Tops - A Quick LessonThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Dave ChapmanTrading Lessons Learned From Poker The Men Who Stare At ChartsJPMorgan Continues To Build Their BlockchainPaul Tudor Jones Has 2% Exposure To BitcoinAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsGreat Analogy For Fed Intervention In The MarketUsing Leverage To Mitigate Counterparty RiskCascading Liquidations And BitcoinPhemexVoyager