The Wolf Den #468 - Bitcoin Isn’t Changing, We Are.
Holders Lead The Way - IntoTheBlock
In this report, we bring to you the latest in on-chain cryptocurrency analysis. We look at the blockchain directly and analyze balances, transactions, and the overall activity of market participants. This gives us a unique insight into the future of the market.
This section is written in conjunction with IntoTheBlock (ITB). ITB is an intelligence company that leverages machine learning and advanced statistics to extract intelligent signals tailored to crypto-assets. IntoTheBlock tackles one of the hardest problems in crypto: to provide investors with a view of a crypto asset that goes beyond price and volume data.
The Wolf Den research team uses IntoTheBlock to dig deeper and get the most important insights about the crypto market.
Ethereum Long-Term Holders Lead The Way
IntoTheBlock’s Ethereum ownership indicators
Ethereum continues to gain steam ahead of Ethereum’s transition to proof of stake, and it appears that long-term holders anticipated this growing interest
Addresses holding Ether for over a year grew their positions by over 4 million ETH within weeks as prices plummeted in late January
This has led to their holdings reaching yearly highs, although it has been dropping in the last few days
Optimism surrounding the merge continues to grow. The implementation of EIP-1559 previously propelled crypto’s rise in August 2021; can the merge do the same now?
Bitcoin Reaches 40m Holders
IntoTheBlock’s Bitcoin network indicators
40M+ Holders — For the first time the number of addresses holding Bitcoin has surpassed 40 million
After dropping in February, the number of addresses holding Bitcoin has continued to grow and set new highs
In just the span of 1 year, Bitcoin added roughly 5 million new addresses with a balance.
This points to growing interest and adoption for Bitcoin
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Revisiting the idea that I shared a few days ago. By no means do I expect this to happen exactly, but from a technical perspective, retesting this zone as support makes sense. The only issue is that seemingly everyone is expecting it. What does that means? Either price front runs this area and bounces above (which it already somewhat has), or price smashes through and goes lower.
6-HOUR CHART
Updating the bear div from yesterday. As anticipated, it appears we have hidden bullish divergence, although I would like to see a more definitive "elbow up" on RSI to confirm.
Bitcoin is currently forming a bull flag. There is a flag pole up and touches up and down in a descending channel. Beautiful. We want to see 2 touches up and down, alternating, which we do not have yet. But the idea is clear.
If you are trading this, you wait for confirmation on a break of the upper channel resistance. This would technically send price over 50K.
Altcoin Charts
FTT/USDT
Everyone loves FTX and the moves that they are making to facilitate mainstream adoption of crypto. Now they have a chart worth loving as well.
As you can see, FTT broke the major downtrend resistance (blue) a few days ago. It also broke a key horiztonal resistance a few days ago, which it has already tested once as support, at $49.95.
This level was also the top of a clear ascending triangle (black), with price making higher lows on the ascending black line towards the flat resistance at $49.95. With that confirmed pattern, the target is around $80, based on the depth of the ascending triangle.
The blue Fibonacci levels can be used as lower targets and likely areas of resistance. You can see that the 38.2% level is currently acting as strong resistance
If the bull market is back, FTT should fly.
The Bitcoin Obituary
Did you know that Bitcoin has been pronounced dead 446 times by the mainstream media? There’s a website that you can look at HERE that tracks this odd, but hyper-relevant metric.
According to the site, here’s how the qualification process works: “the content itself (not just the headline) must be explicit about the fact that Bitcoin is or will be worthless (no “maybe” or “could”). The content was produced by a person with a notable following or a site with substantial traffic. At the time being, we only accept obituaries in English.”
If you take a look at the obituary chart, you’ll notice that the most recent stat came about a month and a half ago from our good friend Charlie Munger. Remember when he called Bitcoin “a venereal disease” and said that he “admires the Chinese for banning it?” Despite 446 premature burials, the asset is stronger now than ever.
Weekly Roundtable
My weekly roundtables with industry experts have become my favorite part of the week. Today's is at 9:30 AM EST. Tune in!
The Ronin Hack Has A (Somewhat) Happy Ending
The company behind the popular play-to-earn game made the promise after a $625 million hack.
Victims of the Ronin hack received good news yesterday morning, when Sky Mavis, the company behind Axie Infinity, pledged to reimburse all stolen funds. Here’s what the company had to say about returning the $625M worth of stolen funds: “we are committed to ensuring that all of the drained funds are recovered or reimbursed, and we are continuing conversations with our stakeholders to determine the best course of action.” It will be interesting to see how things unfold moving forward. Hacks are never easy to recover from and Sky Mavis's bottom line takes a huge hit. The hack won’t be forgotten, but ideally, the story ends here and things slowly return to normal. Take this story to be a lesson - you should never keep all of your money in one place.
Will Smith Inu
In standard shitcoin fashion, Will Smith Inu pumped nearly 500% in less than 24 hours and is now searching for a floor that may never come. If you even thought about apeing into this coin, you ought to Will Smith smack yourself. There is plenty of money to be made in crypto, but these outright memes almost never work out .
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Jameson Lopp
As the world of Bitcoin continues to grow, it’s no surprise that we’ve seen a rise in cyber security violations. That’s why it’s essential to keep your wallet secure. Co-Founder of Casa and long-time bitcoin advocate, Jameson Lopp, is on a mission to empower you to be your own bank. He joins us on The Wolf of All Streets to discuss the importance of self sovereignty, how political narratives play a role in the future of bitcoin, and whether or not there’s anything standing in Bitcoin’s way.
In this episode with Jameson Lopp, we discussed:
Changes at Casa
“Not Your Keys, Not Your Coins”
A shift in the custody narrative
Casa’s value
The biggest threat to your assets
Multisig Security
Self Sovereignty
Schmuck Insurance
Canada and Financial Cancel Culture
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)
Political Narratives and the Future of Bitcoin
El Salvador: please don’t f*** things up
Adoption of Bitcoin
Can anything stop Bitcoin’s success?
Bitcoin is the only free market that we have left
Follow Jameson and Casa
This episode is sponsored by: ARCULUS
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.