The Wolf Den #466 - Patience Is The Equalizer
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
MONTHLY CHART
We still have a few days until the monthly close, so it is too early to judge the current candle. That said, the last few candles have given solid clues that the bottom was likely in and that things should be reversing. The last 3 candles have wicks to the downside, showing that buyers bought the dip aggressively on larger time frames and that sellers were unable to advance the price action. This month's candle is looking very bullish, with price currently trading at the monthly highs.
Price lost the EQ of the monthly ascending channel a few months ago, but looks ready to at least test the dashed line in the coming months - the longer it takes, the higher that line will be.
For now, there's a lot to like here.
WEEKLY CHART
Beautiful. We finally saw a weekly candle close above $45,500 and the 50 MA. These were the two remaining key levels of resistance. The current target is around $53,000, the level that was lost in December that triggered the bear market.
If you are looking for an entry, one would "expect" a retest of the $45,500 area as support, although this is far from certain. That would be a great entry if you believe that the bull market is back on.
DAILY CHART
The potential ascending triangle that I shared repeatedly has been confirmed in wonderful fashion. As you can see, we had consistent higher lows consolidating towards the flat resistance area around $45,500. This usually leads to a breakout.
Based on the depth of the triangle, you can see the red target of this pattern. Understand that pattern targets are ideas that rarely play out exactly. This one has a target around $63,600.
As you can also see on the weekly, this looks likely to retest that blue area around $45,500 as support.
4-HOUR CHART
RSI hit 85, extremely overbought. Some retracement was necessary and expected. Every time frame up to the daily has now hit overbought.
I would expect to see a significant bearish divergence with RSI on this time frame if Bitcoin continues to push up once again, although anything is possible. Other time frames are already showing them.
That said, in a true bull run, all bets are off. This could just give us the simple retest of the $45,500 area that I have been watching for.
All I can say is that Bitcoin looks great and dips are likely for buying.
Altcoin Charts
We are enjoying a rare moment where Bitcoin Dominance has dropped while the price of Bitcoin has risen. That means that altcoins have generally either kept up with Bitcoin on a bullish move, or have outperformed. This is a rare confluence of events, so hopefully you were able to ride the wave on your altcoins or any of the setups from last week that are all in profit.
If you have been with me for a while, you know that I was not sharing many altcoin charts for weeks, even months. As I often say, it's not about choosing the right coin or chart, but about deciding the right time to trade at all. Last week I saw a lot of potential and decided to start sharing charts again, which proved to be the right decision, this time (I am wrong often). Altcoins are not tradable most of the time. Knowing when to go in is really important, so I am glad that we were able to time it on this round.
At the moment, almost everything looks good, either approaching breakout or already through resistance. You can almost throw a dart now to find something that is rising. These perfect moments can end fast, so don't forget to take some profit (scale in and out).
I am keeping the charts here to a minimum, as the market is hot and likely you are already benefiting.
DOT/USDT
DOT hit the first target of the trade discussed, at the $22.66 resistance. I would NOT BUY THIS HERE. I am looking for a flip of $22.66 to support, which would target $31.49 first, with the higher lines in play if that can become support. Level to level.
Once again, I hold DOT on Voyager, earning 12% interest. I am not actively trading it.
ETH/BTC
Ethereum is outperforming BTC on this run, which is a nice surprise and perfect situation for altcoin investors and traders. This was in the chart, which I shared last week a few times. As you can see on the weekly above, Ethereum bounced beautifully off of the blue support and the 50 MA, with bullish candle structure showing the likely reversal. You can revisit last week's chart for a deeper explanation.
This still looks bullish, so I expect alts to continue to perform well.
ETH/USD
Target acquired. That does not mean that this move is done, but rather that the initial trade has hit the expected area. ETH bulls now want to see $3420 flipped to support, with the higher lines as targets if this happens.
Beautiful price action after breaking out of the symmetrical triangle.
I am not trading ETH, but it is my second largest position in crypto. I dollar cost average, buying it almost every day.
Bad Policy Proposal In EU - Again
From the article above:
Bad facts make bad law. We see this in jurisdictions all over the world, especially when it comes to digital assets. Unfortunately, we are about to see this again — this time in the European Union — in the form of a revision to the Transfer of Funds Regulation. If adopted, this revision would unleash an entire surveillance regime on exchanges like Coinbase, stifle innovation, and undermine the self-hosted wallets that individuals use to securely protect their digital assets. The vote will likely take place this week so time is running out.
Here is more nuance... read the thread below.
Crypto Tax Payments In Brazil
Rio De Janeiro is preparing to accept taxes paid in crypto beginning next year. The city plans to convert everything to Brazilian Reais in order to avoid volatility (ironic, if you track currencies). There's an off chance that the city will hold a portion of the coins in their treasury.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted a photo with the city’s mayor, saying that they made a handshake deal and that Binance will open an office in the city.
One more step towards adoption.
Merge Interest Is Growing
Ethereum’s price may not be at all-time highs, but search interest around the asset is hitting max velocity. According to Google Trends, search inquiries for “Ethereum Merge” have reached their highest level yet. The keyword recently received a score of 100, which indicates maximum relative interest. The link above includes a graph of Ethereum’s price charted alongside the “Ethereum Merge” search inquiry to show a similar picture. By no means should Google Trends be an end-all-be-all in your trading or investing, but I don't see anything wrong with using it as confluence for your ideas. Growing interest is never a bad sign.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Alex Bornyakov
Ukraine has had approximately $60M in crypto donated since Russia started its invasion. It shows the incredible power crypto can have when a people and country are most vulnerable. On this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, Alex Bornyakov (@abornyakov) — The Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine — shares just how crypto is assisting the country during this time of crisis. Alex and Scott discuss what it’s like in Ukraine right now, why the Ukrainian government has been pro-crypto, and how you can help Ukraine today.
In this episode with Alex, we discussed:
About our guest Alex Bornyakov
First-hand experience in Ukraine
Ukrainian Ministry Initiatives
Digital Diplomacy
How the Crypto community has helped Ukraine
Gavin Wood’s generous donation and the outpouring of crypto support that followed
Crypto-friendly jurisdiction
Why the Ukrainian government is pro crypto
FTX’s involvement
Has the war changed crypto perceptions?
Misconceptions surrounding Ukraine
The Russian Oligarch Crypto Narrative
How you can help Ukraine
This episode is sponsored by: 101 Management
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.