The Wolf Den #430 - The Current Market Is A Casino
thewolfden.substack.com
This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin - up to $3600 worth. Many are speculating that the bear market is over. This is definitely possible, but don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Bitcoin is currently trading at around 42K, down 39% from its 69K ATH. The macro environment is shaky and there's a long way to go to attain new highs.As you know, last week was my heaviest buying across all asset classes ever. I caught "a bottom," but it is too early to tell if it is "the bottom."I try to keep my analysis simple. Aside from looking at support and resistance levels on the chart, the more bullish the crowd gets at these levels, the more hesitant I become. The opposite is also equally true. The more bearish the crowd gets at these levels, the more optimistic I become. Fear was rampant last week, and presenting the very idea that the bottom even COULD be in was met with resistance and anger. A good sign.While recent price movement has been encouraging, markets are still structurally weak. Jerome Powell and the Fed have turned hawkish, and the biggest companies in the world are seeing stock movements reminiscent of low cap altcoins. Meta stock effectively dropped 25% in a matter of minutes, something that even Bitcoin has never come close to achieving. Trying to actively trade stocks at the moment is akin to heading to Vegas and trying your luck on the slot machines. This volatility is a dream for experienced traders, but most will suffer losses. The market video game has been turned to "expert" level.The past few months have been a drought for positive narratives. There have been no major announcements to rally the retail troops. We haven’t seen meaningful regulatory changes, the SEC hasn’t commented on a spot ETF, a Latin American country hasn’t joined El Salvador, Tesla hasn’t reaccepted Bitcoin, and no major company has added Bitcoin to the balance sheet. A single catalyst, either positive or negative could send the market careening in either direction.This is likely a great time to concentrate on sentiment, as the crowd is most likely to suffer the punishment of a volatile market. What we have currently seen is slowly grinding price action from the lows - the worst form of punishment for late shorts and bears who assumed that price had to go much lower. The slow movement up makes timing an entry or exit extremely difficult. They are trapped.Would it be a surprise to see late longs trapped after this movement up? Of course not. We could be in a situation where everyone actively trading gets caught offsides with whipsaw price action. I am not predicting this, just making it clear that it's possible.As long as the stock market remains a casino, we need to be cautious. Most traders should be making the easy choice to sit on their hands until the air clears. Jumping in now is like dropping into a war zone with no training. Let others run in first and let the battle run its course. As for investors, they should do as they always do - dollar cost average and buy the dip. Best of luck out there and let’s all have a great week!In This Issue:The Current Market Is A CasinoBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsThe Cryptocurrency IcebergBored Ape Yacht Club DoxxedConsider Bitcoin And Ethereum FirstMy Recommended Platforms And ToolsIF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO
The Wolf Den #430 - The Current Market Is A Casino
The Wolf Den #430 - The Current Market Is A…
The Wolf Den #430 - The Current Market Is A Casino
This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin - up to $3600 worth. Many are speculating that the bear market is over. This is definitely possible, but don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Bitcoin is currently trading at around 42K, down 39% from its 69K ATH. The macro environment is shaky and there's a long way to go to attain new highs.As you know, last week was my heaviest buying across all asset classes ever. I caught "a bottom," but it is too early to tell if it is "the bottom."I try to keep my analysis simple. Aside from looking at support and resistance levels on the chart, the more bullish the crowd gets at these levels, the more hesitant I become. The opposite is also equally true. The more bearish the crowd gets at these levels, the more optimistic I become. Fear was rampant last week, and presenting the very idea that the bottom even COULD be in was met with resistance and anger. A good sign.While recent price movement has been encouraging, markets are still structurally weak. Jerome Powell and the Fed have turned hawkish, and the biggest companies in the world are seeing stock movements reminiscent of low cap altcoins. Meta stock effectively dropped 25% in a matter of minutes, something that even Bitcoin has never come close to achieving. Trying to actively trade stocks at the moment is akin to heading to Vegas and trying your luck on the slot machines. This volatility is a dream for experienced traders, but most will suffer losses. The market video game has been turned to "expert" level.The past few months have been a drought for positive narratives. There have been no major announcements to rally the retail troops. We haven’t seen meaningful regulatory changes, the SEC hasn’t commented on a spot ETF, a Latin American country hasn’t joined El Salvador, Tesla hasn’t reaccepted Bitcoin, and no major company has added Bitcoin to the balance sheet. A single catalyst, either positive or negative could send the market careening in either direction.This is likely a great time to concentrate on sentiment, as the crowd is most likely to suffer the punishment of a volatile market. What we have currently seen is slowly grinding price action from the lows - the worst form of punishment for late shorts and bears who assumed that price had to go much lower. The slow movement up makes timing an entry or exit extremely difficult. They are trapped.Would it be a surprise to see late longs trapped after this movement up? Of course not. We could be in a situation where everyone actively trading gets caught offsides with whipsaw price action. I am not predicting this, just making it clear that it's possible.As long as the stock market remains a casino, we need to be cautious. Most traders should be making the easy choice to sit on their hands until the air clears. Jumping in now is like dropping into a war zone with no training. Let others run in first and let the battle run its course. As for investors, they should do as they always do - dollar cost average and buy the dip. Best of luck out there and let’s all have a great week!In This Issue:The Current Market Is A CasinoBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsThe Cryptocurrency IcebergBored Ape Yacht Club DoxxedConsider Bitcoin And Ethereum FirstMy Recommended Platforms And ToolsIF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO