The Wolf Den #40 - Advice, Analysis, Shorts, Longs And So Much More!
thewolfden.substack.com
Life is about managing risk. Whether it be with your health, career, finances or relationships, every choice that you make has a likely consequence and reward. This has never been more clear in life than with the coronavirus pandemic. We decide each day whether to go to the grocery store, wear a mask and gloves or stay home based on our own determination of appropriate risk.It is balancing and making these decisions that ultimately determines our path in life.This is amplified by many multiples in trading and investing. Managing risk is EVERYTHING.Are you willing to lose money on a trade? If not, then don't take it. You can only win if you're not afraid to lose. And you can only do that if you truly accept the risks in front of you" - Sami AbusaadProper risk management does not mean avoiding losses - it means identifying the risk of a trade and planning accordingly. Every trader loses - some are profitable even when they lose on more trades than they win. How is this possible? By taking small losses and getting extremely comfortable with the idea of losing money. On the flip side, they are able to maintain strong hands when price is rising and not sell at the first sign of distress. Small losses and large gains. That's the game we play.Traders need to be emotionless - which happens to also equate to being fearless. Are you free of fear when you execute a trade? How does a professional trader eliminate fear from the equation?The formula is easy, but actually sticking to it is the biggest challenge that traders face. Here is the simple answer: appropriate position sizing, a fixed plan that does not change and the understanding that losing is part of the game. That's really it. Once you trade for long enough, it becomes a matter of simple math. You look at a chart, determine where the stop loss should be, calculate the position size based on the stop and portfolio size, figure out where your take profit is, execute the trade and walk away. What happens next is irrelevant - you followed your plan. As I often say, a good trade is defined by following your plan, not the success of the actual trade. A bad trade is one where you alter your plan, even if it is profitable. A trader's success is judged over thousands of trades.Proper risk management leads to trading without emotion, which leads to success.A quick note on today's news...6.6M more Americans filed for unemployment, bringing the total to 17M in 3 weeks. This is an incredibly large number and obviously indicates a recession or depression, depending on how you choose to define them. This number was announced at 8:30 AM EST... 2 minutes before the FED announced an ADDITIONAL 2.3 TRILLION DOLLARS IN STIMULUS.Can you hear that sound? It's the money printers going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.What is even more interesting is that it is being sold to the American public as a "Main Street" assistance package, implying it is for your average American and not Wall Street. What are the stipulations? Your business has to have less than 10 THOUSAND employees and 2.5 BILLION DOLLARS a year in revenue.That does not sound like my Main Street!Buy Bitcoin as a hedge against hyperinflation. Period. A MAJOR THANK YOU AS ALWAYS to my newsletter sponsors, VOYAGER and PHEMEX. Please make sure to read about them below! I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I now use Phemex for trading with leverage.I am amazed at the chart requests - it seems that we have moved to primarily equities, with very few crypto charts being looked at. As a note of warning, almost EVERY STOCK CHART LOOKS THE SAME. Price is trading under the key MAs on most charts, after a significant drop and rebound. You may find looking at these a bit redundant! They are almost all presently at resistance with the entire move up on decreasing volume. That indicates likely consolidation for a continuation of a downtrend rather than a true reversal. Low volume on a big pump = low conviction.Most equities are hard for me to buy here. Catching the bottom before was the better move (I did not even try), or trading above resistance if it starts to look more convincing. Strange spot for stocks here.RUNE is not available on TradingView, so I cannot chart it.The FTM and RLC chart requests look very interesting, take a peek. If you want to see a perfect double bottom, check out the APA chart.I shorted SPX (through inverse ETFs SPDN & SPXS and SPY) and BRK.B today, both in the chart requests. Risky stuff.Reminder - the stock market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!If you like what I am doing, please feel free to share it with your friends and followers! That’s the best thank you that you could offer.What’s in this issue?Bitcoin ThoughtsThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Dr. Michael CorradoBloomberg Model States 100% Chance Of RecessionAltcoin TradesBitcoin Less Risky And Volatile Than Other Assets?PhemexVoyagerWhat Social Distancing Looked Like in 1666Pro Tip - Following Your Gut (Don't!)Chart RequestsThe Block Experience Podcast
The Wolf Den #40 - Advice, Analysis, Shorts, Longs And So Much More!
The Wolf Den #40 - Advice, Analysis, Shorts…
The Wolf Den #40 - Advice, Analysis, Shorts, Longs And So Much More!
Life is about managing risk. Whether it be with your health, career, finances or relationships, every choice that you make has a likely consequence and reward. This has never been more clear in life than with the coronavirus pandemic. We decide each day whether to go to the grocery store, wear a mask and gloves or stay home based on our own determination of appropriate risk.It is balancing and making these decisions that ultimately determines our path in life.This is amplified by many multiples in trading and investing. Managing risk is EVERYTHING.Are you willing to lose money on a trade? If not, then don't take it. You can only win if you're not afraid to lose. And you can only do that if you truly accept the risks in front of you" - Sami AbusaadProper risk management does not mean avoiding losses - it means identifying the risk of a trade and planning accordingly. Every trader loses - some are profitable even when they lose on more trades than they win. How is this possible? By taking small losses and getting extremely comfortable with the idea of losing money. On the flip side, they are able to maintain strong hands when price is rising and not sell at the first sign of distress. Small losses and large gains. That's the game we play.Traders need to be emotionless - which happens to also equate to being fearless. Are you free of fear when you execute a trade? How does a professional trader eliminate fear from the equation?The formula is easy, but actually sticking to it is the biggest challenge that traders face. Here is the simple answer: appropriate position sizing, a fixed plan that does not change and the understanding that losing is part of the game. That's really it. Once you trade for long enough, it becomes a matter of simple math. You look at a chart, determine where the stop loss should be, calculate the position size based on the stop and portfolio size, figure out where your take profit is, execute the trade and walk away. What happens next is irrelevant - you followed your plan. As I often say, a good trade is defined by following your plan, not the success of the actual trade. A bad trade is one where you alter your plan, even if it is profitable. A trader's success is judged over thousands of trades.Proper risk management leads to trading without emotion, which leads to success.A quick note on today's news...6.6M more Americans filed for unemployment, bringing the total to 17M in 3 weeks. This is an incredibly large number and obviously indicates a recession or depression, depending on how you choose to define them. This number was announced at 8:30 AM EST... 2 minutes before the FED announced an ADDITIONAL 2.3 TRILLION DOLLARS IN STIMULUS.Can you hear that sound? It's the money printers going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.What is even more interesting is that it is being sold to the American public as a "Main Street" assistance package, implying it is for your average American and not Wall Street. What are the stipulations? Your business has to have less than 10 THOUSAND employees and 2.5 BILLION DOLLARS a year in revenue.That does not sound like my Main Street!Buy Bitcoin as a hedge against hyperinflation. Period. A MAJOR THANK YOU AS ALWAYS to my newsletter sponsors, VOYAGER and PHEMEX. Please make sure to read about them below! I use Voyager for my spot trading and investing (and to compound interest) and I now use Phemex for trading with leverage.I am amazed at the chart requests - it seems that we have moved to primarily equities, with very few crypto charts being looked at. As a note of warning, almost EVERY STOCK CHART LOOKS THE SAME. Price is trading under the key MAs on most charts, after a significant drop and rebound. You may find looking at these a bit redundant! They are almost all presently at resistance with the entire move up on decreasing volume. That indicates likely consolidation for a continuation of a downtrend rather than a true reversal. Low volume on a big pump = low conviction.Most equities are hard for me to buy here. Catching the bottom before was the better move (I did not even try), or trading above resistance if it starts to look more convincing. Strange spot for stocks here.RUNE is not available on TradingView, so I cannot chart it.The FTM and RLC chart requests look very interesting, take a peek. If you want to see a perfect double bottom, check out the APA chart.I shorted SPX (through inverse ETFs SPDN & SPXS and SPY) and BRK.B today, both in the chart requests. Risky stuff.Reminder - the stock market is closed tomorrow for Good Friday.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!If you like what I am doing, please feel free to share it with your friends and followers! That’s the best thank you that you could offer.What’s in this issue?Bitcoin ThoughtsThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Dr. Michael CorradoBloomberg Model States 100% Chance Of RecessionAltcoin TradesBitcoin Less Risky And Volatile Than Other Assets?PhemexVoyagerWhat Social Distancing Looked Like in 1666Pro Tip - Following Your Gut (Don't!)Chart RequestsThe Block Experience Podcast