The Wolf Den #39 - Crypto, Stocks, US Gov Loans, Altcoins And More
thewolfden.substack.com
Watch and wait.That's my current status for buying and selling stocks. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I closed all of my shorts yesterday morning. Judging by the overnight action and movement this morning, I am REALLY glad I did! As Keynes said in the 1930s:“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”My shorts have been exceptionally profitable, hitting targets that would have taken months or years in the past in a matter of days. That said, there's nothing wrong with admitting that you have no feel for where the market is going next. When you have that instinct, you exit and wait for clarity.So my current strategy (which can change quickly) is to observe from the sidelines. As an investor, I have continued to buy Amazon and SPY automatically every two weeks, regardless of price. My portfolio is still intact, with some cash on the sidelines from the positions I sold early in the drop.As a trader, I am fully in cash at the moment after closing my shorts. Remember, I ONLY TRADE WITH 15% OF ANY GIVEN PORTFOLIO. I am not one to try to time the generational bottom of a stock market move, and the velocity of the move back up has been a bit surprising (to almost everyone). I still see the market in "dead cat bounce territory," meaning that I am not convinced that this is a true reversal. There will be time to react, whichever way it goes.GDP will still shrink. People still do not have jobs. The virus will still spread.Perhaps these issues won't hurt the market in the face of optimism and infinite QE, but I still believe that the economy is far from bottoming out and correcting. I am still looking to short, in general.I had the unfortunate experience of helping others and myself go through the PPP loan process yesterday. For those not in America, this is the "Paycheck Protection Program" that is being lauded as the great savior of American Small Businesses.The program is an ABSOLUTE SHIT SHOW (pardon my language). It requires banks to be the lenders, even though the loans will largely be forgiven or will accrue 1% interest starting in a year. Banks have 0 incentive to do this, but are being forced by the government to process the loans. The rules and applications have changed 3 times in 5 days. The websites are down. Customer service is overwhelmed. Wells Fargo has already run out of resources to file applications.1.7 Trillion in applications had been filed yesterday. The program is funded for 350 Billion.This program is what is supposed to be lifting the economy and protecting our interests.Who's applying?McDonalds, for one. They received an exemption, even though the rule is that relief is only for companies with 500 employees or less. I am pretty sure there are over 500 Americans who play Ronald McDonald at birthday parties alone, ignoring the rest of their employees. McDonalds also qualifies for the much larger bailouts.Once again, the actual people who need the money will likely be screwed - and the government will probably need 10 Trillion dollars just to fund the applications.Not good.Due to the language used in setting up the program, almost anyone is eligible - and there's really no qualifier for monetary need. If you can argue that you might need help at some point soon, you can apply for the loan. At worst, you have to pay it back over a few years with 1% interest, after a portion is forgiven. It's basically free money, even if it needs to be paid back.Further, I have already heard of wealthy hedge fund managers etc. that are applying for the loan (which is meant to keep people on payroll) who intend to let employees go and then rehire the day before the deadline that allows the loan to be forgiven. If you have 10 employees now, you can fire them all, get a loan for up to 20K for each, and then rehire 10 people in a few months.Awful.That said, if you are American and are being affected, you should go through the process. I have included links and some brief advice in the newsletter.Now let's move on.A huge thank you to both of my sponsors, VOYAGER and PHEMEX! I trade spot Bitcoin (and altcoins) on Voyager and have started trading with leverage on PHEMEX, including the GOLD/USD pair.I ONLY ENDORSE PLATFORMS THAT I USE!What’s in this issue?Bitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Mark YuskoEthereumTD Sequential LessonAltcoin SetupsUS Government LoansBinance Buys CoinMarketCapKuCoin On TradingViewSponsored By VoyagerSponsored By Phemex
The Wolf Den #39 - Crypto, Stocks, US Gov Loans, Altcoins And More
The Wolf Den #39 - Crypto, Stocks, US Gov…
The Wolf Den #39 - Crypto, Stocks, US Gov Loans, Altcoins And More
Watch and wait.That's my current status for buying and selling stocks. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I closed all of my shorts yesterday morning. Judging by the overnight action and movement this morning, I am REALLY glad I did! As Keynes said in the 1930s:“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”My shorts have been exceptionally profitable, hitting targets that would have taken months or years in the past in a matter of days. That said, there's nothing wrong with admitting that you have no feel for where the market is going next. When you have that instinct, you exit and wait for clarity.So my current strategy (which can change quickly) is to observe from the sidelines. As an investor, I have continued to buy Amazon and SPY automatically every two weeks, regardless of price. My portfolio is still intact, with some cash on the sidelines from the positions I sold early in the drop.As a trader, I am fully in cash at the moment after closing my shorts. Remember, I ONLY TRADE WITH 15% OF ANY GIVEN PORTFOLIO. I am not one to try to time the generational bottom of a stock market move, and the velocity of the move back up has been a bit surprising (to almost everyone). I still see the market in "dead cat bounce territory," meaning that I am not convinced that this is a true reversal. There will be time to react, whichever way it goes.GDP will still shrink. People still do not have jobs. The virus will still spread.Perhaps these issues won't hurt the market in the face of optimism and infinite QE, but I still believe that the economy is far from bottoming out and correcting. I am still looking to short, in general.I had the unfortunate experience of helping others and myself go through the PPP loan process yesterday. For those not in America, this is the "Paycheck Protection Program" that is being lauded as the great savior of American Small Businesses.The program is an ABSOLUTE SHIT SHOW (pardon my language). It requires banks to be the lenders, even though the loans will largely be forgiven or will accrue 1% interest starting in a year. Banks have 0 incentive to do this, but are being forced by the government to process the loans. The rules and applications have changed 3 times in 5 days. The websites are down. Customer service is overwhelmed. Wells Fargo has already run out of resources to file applications.1.7 Trillion in applications had been filed yesterday. The program is funded for 350 Billion.This program is what is supposed to be lifting the economy and protecting our interests.Who's applying?McDonalds, for one. They received an exemption, even though the rule is that relief is only for companies with 500 employees or less. I am pretty sure there are over 500 Americans who play Ronald McDonald at birthday parties alone, ignoring the rest of their employees. McDonalds also qualifies for the much larger bailouts.Once again, the actual people who need the money will likely be screwed - and the government will probably need 10 Trillion dollars just to fund the applications.Not good.Due to the language used in setting up the program, almost anyone is eligible - and there's really no qualifier for monetary need. If you can argue that you might need help at some point soon, you can apply for the loan. At worst, you have to pay it back over a few years with 1% interest, after a portion is forgiven. It's basically free money, even if it needs to be paid back.Further, I have already heard of wealthy hedge fund managers etc. that are applying for the loan (which is meant to keep people on payroll) who intend to let employees go and then rehire the day before the deadline that allows the loan to be forgiven. If you have 10 employees now, you can fire them all, get a loan for up to 20K for each, and then rehire 10 people in a few months.Awful.That said, if you are American and are being affected, you should go through the process. I have included links and some brief advice in the newsletter.Now let's move on.A huge thank you to both of my sponsors, VOYAGER and PHEMEX! I trade spot Bitcoin (and altcoins) on Voyager and have started trading with leverage on PHEMEX, including the GOLD/USD pair.I ONLY ENDORSE PLATFORMS THAT I USE!What’s in this issue?Bitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Mark YuskoEthereumTD Sequential LessonAltcoin SetupsUS Government LoansBinance Buys CoinMarketCapKuCoin On TradingViewSponsored By VoyagerSponsored By Phemex