I started the last newsletter with a single word: jobs.3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment this week. THIS WEEK! This is by multiples the most in history, including the Great Depression and 2008 recession. Further, this only accounts for those who were eligible for unemployment (not gig workers, self-employed, contractors). Miserable.The projected drop in GDP for the next quarter is greater than the drop for the entire Great Depression. Astounding.Analysts can stare at charts all day, come up with reasons for the economy to recover, but an economy cannot function without supply and demand. People without jobs have no money. People with no money cannot spend on basic necessities. This is compounded by the fact that they are at home and businesses are closed - those necessities are not even available. This is unlikely to get much better in the near future.Meanwhile in the halls of the government, they are planning a 6 TRILLION dollar bailout, printing money out of thin air to "help the people" and the market. But who are they really helping?Let's do some quick math:6 trillion dollars are being printed. There are roughly 327 million people in the US.6 trillion divided by 327 million is $18,348. Thats your fair share.They’re going to buy everyone and their votes for $1,200, well below a living wage for most families. And many people will not even receive that money.Almost ALL of the money will go to bailing out cronies of the government and to pad the pockets of CEOs. Companies that spent 96% of their cash (airlines) on stock buy backs were not even able to survive for 1 MONTH without a bailout. We talk about individuals needing to have 6 months of cash available for an emergency. This is budgeting 101 and is a basic financial necessity. These companies do not follow the same rules! The Cheesecake Factory is refusing to pay rent on April 1 after being closed for ONLY TWO WEEKS.The bailout will be paid for with the tax dollars of the very people who are receiving $1,200. And guess what? That $1,200 only goes to the people who are the most in need and it is likely to be TAXABLE INCOME!!! You may pay taxes on the $1,200 you receive and those taxes will be used to bailout large corporations.I am not saying a bailout for the people is a negative thing - I just believe it should be FAR MORE, with less for companies.We have seen this playbook around the world, and even in our country before the Great Depression (Hoover). A few very rich people will benefit while everyone else suffers. The dollar will eventually be hyper-inflated and devalued. Even the pittance they give the people will likely not be worth the paper it is printed on if we continue down this path.$1,200 for you, while companies receive TRILLIONS.We JUST SAW this play out in Venezuela. The government printed money endlessly, causing hyperinflation in under a year. A suitcase of cash cannot buy a loaf of bread in Caracas, but they attempted to convince the people by giving them... free gas. The American people are receiving that same bribe, in the form of a $1,200 check.If hyper-inflation sets in, our children will pay $12,000 (or more) for that $1,200 check we receive now. Our government is destroying our financial future to save their friends.I will like to say that we did not learn any lessons from the Recession of 2008 - Wall Street continued the same bad behavior, with the same actors at it's core. But the reality is far scarier. It's not that we didn't learn anything - it's that those in power purposely repeated the same pattern, knowing for a fact that they could get fat on handouts and bailouts. It's all intentional and part of the plan. Socialism for the rich.And why do companies spend all of their available cash buying back stock? That's a long conversation, but here is the very basic rational. 1) They know they will be bailed out if needed and 2) buying back stock is a guaranteed way to artificially raise share prices, even if earnings have not improved. Apple has the same earnings as they did 6 years ago, but their stock continues to rise! Accounting for inflation, they are making less money.But what's the real elephant in the room? Number 3) Demographics. Boomers are retiring. People are living much longer. And guess what? Boomers don't buy stocks. As you get older, you rebalance your portfolio to safer investments, forcing you to SELL STOCK that you have held for ages. Further, at a certain age (I believe 71) Americans are forced to take disbursements from their retirement funds. That means the HAVE TO SELL THEIR STOCK - they literally have no choice! As people get older and live longer, the natural course is to sell. With that in mind, the government and corporations need to buy those shares to avoid having the stock price drop. Artificial demand props up the market. When the rug is pulled, there's a nice big golden pillow waiting to pad their landing.The people find a bottomless pit waiting below.I say let them fail. The world does not need Boeing, a company that knowingly put a dangerous plane into the sky. If American Airlines goes out of business, someone will cover their routes. Cruise lines? They're receiving bailouts when they are foreign companies that pay no taxes in America. It is ABSURD.The system is rigged. The stock market IS NOT THE ECONOMY, the people are.That is my rant for the day - it will assuredly not be my last. Reminder to take ALL CHARTS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT in a potential recession (or depression). I chose on most charts to look at the daily and above, with many on the weekly and monthly time frame. Right now is a very important time to look at the big picture and not try to take crazy short term positions.A general note - whenever I draw a line on a chart, it should be viewed as elastic and not static. It is more of a zone. So the areas around those lines are usually more accurate. Further, I try to use multiple techniques and indicators on various charts, so if you are learning TA, you should read through all of these to see how I blindly look at a chart. A lot of these charts look great.If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 10 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-crypto-newsletter-issue-10-219754 and have it sent to you) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!What’s in this issue?Bitcoin ThoughtsAnother Perspective On Covid-19 And The ShutdownMt. Gox Victims A Step Closer To Being CompensatedCOTI/BTCTrading Horizontal Support And ResistanceThe Wolf Of All Street Podcast Ft. Rob McNealyInterview With Radio Cade - Father And Son!Sponsored By VoyagerChart Requests
The Wolf Den #36 - Bailouts And Bitcoin
The Wolf Den #36 - Bailouts And Bitcoin
The Wolf Den #36 - Bailouts And Bitcoin
I started the last newsletter with a single word: jobs.3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment this week. THIS WEEK! This is by multiples the most in history, including the Great Depression and 2008 recession. Further, this only accounts for those who were eligible for unemployment (not gig workers, self-employed, contractors). Miserable.The projected drop in GDP for the next quarter is greater than the drop for the entire Great Depression. Astounding.Analysts can stare at charts all day, come up with reasons for the economy to recover, but an economy cannot function without supply and demand. People without jobs have no money. People with no money cannot spend on basic necessities. This is compounded by the fact that they are at home and businesses are closed - those necessities are not even available. This is unlikely to get much better in the near future.Meanwhile in the halls of the government, they are planning a 6 TRILLION dollar bailout, printing money out of thin air to "help the people" and the market. But who are they really helping?Let's do some quick math:6 trillion dollars are being printed. There are roughly 327 million people in the US.6 trillion divided by 327 million is $18,348. Thats your fair share.They’re going to buy everyone and their votes for $1,200, well below a living wage for most families. And many people will not even receive that money.Almost ALL of the money will go to bailing out cronies of the government and to pad the pockets of CEOs. Companies that spent 96% of their cash (airlines) on stock buy backs were not even able to survive for 1 MONTH without a bailout. We talk about individuals needing to have 6 months of cash available for an emergency. This is budgeting 101 and is a basic financial necessity. These companies do not follow the same rules! The Cheesecake Factory is refusing to pay rent on April 1 after being closed for ONLY TWO WEEKS.The bailout will be paid for with the tax dollars of the very people who are receiving $1,200. And guess what? That $1,200 only goes to the people who are the most in need and it is likely to be TAXABLE INCOME!!! You may pay taxes on the $1,200 you receive and those taxes will be used to bailout large corporations.I am not saying a bailout for the people is a negative thing - I just believe it should be FAR MORE, with less for companies.We have seen this playbook around the world, and even in our country before the Great Depression (Hoover). A few very rich people will benefit while everyone else suffers. The dollar will eventually be hyper-inflated and devalued. Even the pittance they give the people will likely not be worth the paper it is printed on if we continue down this path.$1,200 for you, while companies receive TRILLIONS.We JUST SAW this play out in Venezuela. The government printed money endlessly, causing hyperinflation in under a year. A suitcase of cash cannot buy a loaf of bread in Caracas, but they attempted to convince the people by giving them... free gas. The American people are receiving that same bribe, in the form of a $1,200 check.If hyper-inflation sets in, our children will pay $12,000 (or more) for that $1,200 check we receive now. Our government is destroying our financial future to save their friends.I will like to say that we did not learn any lessons from the Recession of 2008 - Wall Street continued the same bad behavior, with the same actors at it's core. But the reality is far scarier. It's not that we didn't learn anything - it's that those in power purposely repeated the same pattern, knowing for a fact that they could get fat on handouts and bailouts. It's all intentional and part of the plan. Socialism for the rich.And why do companies spend all of their available cash buying back stock? That's a long conversation, but here is the very basic rational. 1) They know they will be bailed out if needed and 2) buying back stock is a guaranteed way to artificially raise share prices, even if earnings have not improved. Apple has the same earnings as they did 6 years ago, but their stock continues to rise! Accounting for inflation, they are making less money.But what's the real elephant in the room? Number 3) Demographics. Boomers are retiring. People are living much longer. And guess what? Boomers don't buy stocks. As you get older, you rebalance your portfolio to safer investments, forcing you to SELL STOCK that you have held for ages. Further, at a certain age (I believe 71) Americans are forced to take disbursements from their retirement funds. That means the HAVE TO SELL THEIR STOCK - they literally have no choice! As people get older and live longer, the natural course is to sell. With that in mind, the government and corporations need to buy those shares to avoid having the stock price drop. Artificial demand props up the market. When the rug is pulled, there's a nice big golden pillow waiting to pad their landing.The people find a bottomless pit waiting below.I say let them fail. The world does not need Boeing, a company that knowingly put a dangerous plane into the sky. If American Airlines goes out of business, someone will cover their routes. Cruise lines? They're receiving bailouts when they are foreign companies that pay no taxes in America. It is ABSURD.The system is rigged. The stock market IS NOT THE ECONOMY, the people are.That is my rant for the day - it will assuredly not be my last. Reminder to take ALL CHARTS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT in a potential recession (or depression). I chose on most charts to look at the daily and above, with many on the weekly and monthly time frame. Right now is a very important time to look at the big picture and not try to take crazy short term positions.A general note - whenever I draw a line on a chart, it should be viewed as elastic and not static. It is more of a zone. So the areas around those lines are usually more accurate. Further, I try to use multiple techniques and indicators on various charts, so if you are learning TA, you should read through all of these to see how I blindly look at a chart. A lot of these charts look great.If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 10 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-crypto-newsletter-issue-10-219754 and have it sent to you) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.IMPORTANT NOTE - I will only accept requests on Wednesdays, between 8 AM and 1 PM EST. That will make sure that they are your most pressing requests. Please mark it in your calendar and email me by responding to this email!What’s in this issue?Bitcoin ThoughtsAnother Perspective On Covid-19 And The ShutdownMt. Gox Victims A Step Closer To Being CompensatedCOTI/BTCTrading Horizontal Support And ResistanceThe Wolf Of All Street Podcast Ft. Rob McNealyInterview With Radio Cade - Father And Son!Sponsored By VoyagerChart Requests