The Wolf Den #344 - Retail Is Wrong At The Worst Times
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This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.Clues hinting at current market sentiment are everywhere. Some of the best market insight that I have gotten over the years has come from observing retail traders. It didn't come from eager investors ready to share an edge. It didn't come from insiders, hedge fund traders, or whales. The retail herd has been notoriously wrong at the worst times.On occasion, a retail trader is right and scores big. Sometimes they even make a bad decision and are rewarded for their misguided but lucky choices. More often than not though, retail is wrong, and they are usually wrong at the worst times. Recognizing this and taking the opposite side of their bet can pay big dividends.Paying attention to all market participants is essential, including your "normie" friend, neighbor, taxi driver, or hairdresser. As much as we may hate to admit it, we all have people in our lives that are seemingly wrong about everything.We all know a person who works hard but always comes up short, or an acquaintance that loses faith in his investment, usually a week or month before things start to turn around. This person has the gift of poor timing.In a set of measurements, accuracy is closeness of the measurements to a specific value, while precision is the closeness of the measurements to each other.It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. — John Maynard KeynesThese people are rarely accurate, but their decisions are almost always precise - but precisely wrong. That is where the value lies. The trader or investor who is talented at timing the tops and bottoms of a market is accurate. That is rarely retail.The person who is repeatedly early or late, impatient and wrong is precise, always missing the target completely. Use their precision to your advantage. This person can be your signal to act or quickly stay put. Use their lack of insight to your advantage, they are actually unwittingly pointing you in the right direction.I often have a good sense that the market is ready to turn around when retail traders I use as a counter signal air their pent-up frustrations with the market. This can be seen in the fear and greed index. The moment the herd becomes fed up with the choppiness of Bitcoin, it always seems to wake up.Knowledge is everywhere. Insight is rarely presented on a silver platter, but when you do a little digging you can find actionable advice from unexpected sources, Master this and you can master nearly any market.Chart Request Live Stream at 1:30 PM EST. Please follow the rules. I cannot take requests at any other time, so if you send them during a different window they may not get charted. Remember, no more email requests.1 chart per person, per weekSubmit your request between now and 12:30 PM EST.You can only submit your request through the link below.If it is not on TradingView, there is a chance I will not able to chart it.REMINDER: I can only do so many charts on the livestream. My assistant picks 25 random requests from everyone’s submissions and those are the coins I chart.Chart Request FormChannel link (Stream will be there later): https://www.youtube.com/scottmelker?sub_confirmation=1If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 236 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-236-think-like-a-whale-592727) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.In This Issue:Retail Is Wrong At The Worst TimesBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsThe Crypto Safe Harbor Proposal ReturnsU.S. Bank Offers Crypto Custody ServiceMy Recommended Platforms And ToolsIF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO
The Wolf Den #344 - Retail Is Wrong At The Worst Times
The Wolf Den #344 - Retail Is Wrong At The…
The Wolf Den #344 - Retail Is Wrong At The Worst Times
This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.Clues hinting at current market sentiment are everywhere. Some of the best market insight that I have gotten over the years has come from observing retail traders. It didn't come from eager investors ready to share an edge. It didn't come from insiders, hedge fund traders, or whales. The retail herd has been notoriously wrong at the worst times.On occasion, a retail trader is right and scores big. Sometimes they even make a bad decision and are rewarded for their misguided but lucky choices. More often than not though, retail is wrong, and they are usually wrong at the worst times. Recognizing this and taking the opposite side of their bet can pay big dividends.Paying attention to all market participants is essential, including your "normie" friend, neighbor, taxi driver, or hairdresser. As much as we may hate to admit it, we all have people in our lives that are seemingly wrong about everything.We all know a person who works hard but always comes up short, or an acquaintance that loses faith in his investment, usually a week or month before things start to turn around. This person has the gift of poor timing.In a set of measurements, accuracy is closeness of the measurements to a specific value, while precision is the closeness of the measurements to each other.It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. — John Maynard KeynesThese people are rarely accurate, but their decisions are almost always precise - but precisely wrong. That is where the value lies. The trader or investor who is talented at timing the tops and bottoms of a market is accurate. That is rarely retail.The person who is repeatedly early or late, impatient and wrong is precise, always missing the target completely. Use their precision to your advantage. This person can be your signal to act or quickly stay put. Use their lack of insight to your advantage, they are actually unwittingly pointing you in the right direction.I often have a good sense that the market is ready to turn around when retail traders I use as a counter signal air their pent-up frustrations with the market. This can be seen in the fear and greed index. The moment the herd becomes fed up with the choppiness of Bitcoin, it always seems to wake up.Knowledge is everywhere. Insight is rarely presented on a silver platter, but when you do a little digging you can find actionable advice from unexpected sources, Master this and you can master nearly any market.Chart Request Live Stream at 1:30 PM EST. Please follow the rules. I cannot take requests at any other time, so if you send them during a different window they may not get charted. Remember, no more email requests.1 chart per person, per weekSubmit your request between now and 12:30 PM EST.You can only submit your request through the link below.If it is not on TradingView, there is a chance I will not able to chart it.REMINDER: I can only do so many charts on the livestream. My assistant picks 25 random requests from everyone’s submissions and those are the coins I chart.Chart Request FormChannel link (Stream will be there later): https://www.youtube.com/scottmelker?sub_confirmation=1If you are a new member, please refer to Issue 236 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-236-think-like-a-whale-592727) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.In This Issue:Retail Is Wrong At The Worst TimesBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsThe Crypto Safe Harbor Proposal ReturnsU.S. Bank Offers Crypto Custody ServiceMy Recommended Platforms And ToolsIF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO