The Wolf Den #325 - The Crowd Rarely Gets What It Wants
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This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin - up to $1200 worth! September 7th was supposed to be a massively bullish day for Bitcoin, slated as a future holiday for the crypto community. Bitcoiners around the world were planning to purchase $30 of Bitcoin in celebration of the first country officially adopting a Bitcoin standard. What did we get instead?A fat +20% drop across the board from whales coordinating sell orders, timed in almost perfect synchronization.There's a lesson here: the crowd rarely gets what it wants.If the crowd was always right, everyone would be a wealthy globetrotting billionaire with a supermodel spouse, hanging on a yacht in the Mediterranean. I think we can all accept that this is not presently the case.What does the crowd expect from Bitcoin in this cycle, and what can we actually expect to see?The masses seemingly want to see Bitcoin somewhere above $100,000, with an average of all popular predictions at $230,000. If the El Salvador "Bitcoin Day" dump teaches us anything, it’s that most of us are probably going to be surprised at where Bitcoin lands. If this is truly Bitcoin's most meaningful cycle and our equivalent of the dotcom boom, I expect most of us to be pleasantly surprised by the end price. If the crowd is expecting $230,000, it is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin taps $230,000 and begins to correct. The more likely scenarios are that whales front run $230,000 and it never reaches that price, or that FOMO will kick in harder than we expect, and we blow past $230,000 to much higher targets. I favor the latter.This leads to another question - who will actually be "the crowd" when Bitcoin performs its final dance of this cycle?Right now, the crowd is primarily existing Bitcoin enthusiasts who have been here for years, with a steady trickle of new blood. Our community are the ones making the predictions, tracking the charts and analyzing the news cycle.If the mainstream truly becomes enamored with the asset, they will become the crowd and their predictions and actions will become increasingly meaningful. Ours will become less relevant.My suggestion to you is to avoid following the crowd off of a cliff. You should continue to listen, as there is some wisdom in the masses and knowing what they expect can help you formulate your own opinion. Do your own research - there is a much higher chance that you are right based on your own thesis, and that your prediction is more solid than that of the emotional masses."The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone is likely to find himself in places no one else has ever been." - Albert EinsteinTo my free members (I love you!) - paid members receive emails like this at 5 times a week - Monday through Friday. Every Wednesday I chart any request sent by my paid members, often over 30 or 40 charts. It’s a ridiculous amount of work, but I do my best to add real value to anyone who subscribes. If you would like to join the paid side, you can do so for $15 a month here.https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/membersThis will give you access to everything that I have ever written. If you cannot use a credit card, please contact me directly to pay with crypto by responding to this email.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.COIn This Issue:The Crowd Rarely Gets What It WantsBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsUniswap Is Under SEC InvestigationStephen Curry Joins FTXEthereum To $26K - $35KMetis - Ethereum Layer 2 RollupsThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Alex GladsteinMy Recommended Platforms And Tools
The Wolf Den #325 - The Crowd Rarely Gets What It Wants
The Wolf Den #325 - The Crowd Rarely Gets…
The Wolf Den #325 - The Crowd Rarely Gets What It Wants
This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin - up to $1200 worth! September 7th was supposed to be a massively bullish day for Bitcoin, slated as a future holiday for the crypto community. Bitcoiners around the world were planning to purchase $30 of Bitcoin in celebration of the first country officially adopting a Bitcoin standard. What did we get instead?A fat +20% drop across the board from whales coordinating sell orders, timed in almost perfect synchronization.There's a lesson here: the crowd rarely gets what it wants.If the crowd was always right, everyone would be a wealthy globetrotting billionaire with a supermodel spouse, hanging on a yacht in the Mediterranean. I think we can all accept that this is not presently the case.What does the crowd expect from Bitcoin in this cycle, and what can we actually expect to see?The masses seemingly want to see Bitcoin somewhere above $100,000, with an average of all popular predictions at $230,000. If the El Salvador "Bitcoin Day" dump teaches us anything, it’s that most of us are probably going to be surprised at where Bitcoin lands. If this is truly Bitcoin's most meaningful cycle and our equivalent of the dotcom boom, I expect most of us to be pleasantly surprised by the end price. If the crowd is expecting $230,000, it is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin taps $230,000 and begins to correct. The more likely scenarios are that whales front run $230,000 and it never reaches that price, or that FOMO will kick in harder than we expect, and we blow past $230,000 to much higher targets. I favor the latter.This leads to another question - who will actually be "the crowd" when Bitcoin performs its final dance of this cycle?Right now, the crowd is primarily existing Bitcoin enthusiasts who have been here for years, with a steady trickle of new blood. Our community are the ones making the predictions, tracking the charts and analyzing the news cycle.If the mainstream truly becomes enamored with the asset, they will become the crowd and their predictions and actions will become increasingly meaningful. Ours will become less relevant.My suggestion to you is to avoid following the crowd off of a cliff. You should continue to listen, as there is some wisdom in the masses and knowing what they expect can help you formulate your own opinion. Do your own research - there is a much higher chance that you are right based on your own thesis, and that your prediction is more solid than that of the emotional masses."The one who follows the crowd will usually get no further than the crowd. The one who walks alone is likely to find himself in places no one else has ever been." - Albert EinsteinTo my free members (I love you!) - paid members receive emails like this at 5 times a week - Monday through Friday. Every Wednesday I chart any request sent by my paid members, often over 30 or 40 charts. It’s a ridiculous amount of work, but I do my best to add real value to anyone who subscribes. If you would like to join the paid side, you can do so for $15 a month here.https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/membersThis will give you access to everything that I have ever written. If you cannot use a credit card, please contact me directly to pay with crypto by responding to this email.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.COIn This Issue:The Crowd Rarely Gets What It WantsBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsUniswap Is Under SEC InvestigationStephen Curry Joins FTXEthereum To $26K - $35KMetis - Ethereum Layer 2 RollupsThe Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Alex GladsteinMy Recommended Platforms And Tools