This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO“Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.” — Jeff BezosTomorrow I am releasing an epic conversation with Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation Is The Key To An Abundant Future." In our conversation, we explicitly talked about why Bitcoin is the best asymmetric bet of our time and potentially the greatest asymmetric bet to ever exist. I can’t wait for you to listen to his thoughts on the topic in the conversation. Below are my thoughts on asymmetric bets.The idea of taking bets with asymmetric upside is nothing new. As I discuss often, poker players will push all of their chips into a pot when the odds are against winning the hand because the “pot odds” favor the move. If you have a 30% of winning the hand, but only have to bet $100 more dollars with the chance of winning $1000, you make that bet every single time.The caveat to Bezos’s quote is that you can’t make this bet with all of your capital. And an important nuance it is! A poker player might push in all of the chips they have on the table, but they likely only have about 1-2% of their entire bankroll in play.If you put your entire portfolio into a single investment that only has a 10% chance of success, the odds are irrelevant. 90% of the time you will be left destitute. The spirit of the quote is correct, but the context is important. This is why traders ONLY TRADE with a small part of their portfolio, keeping the rest in stronger long-term investments. You can make the “Bezos bet” with a small percentage of your portfolio many times over without blowing up your entire portfolio.Never go truly all-in on a bet with a low chance of success - rather, risk what you can afford to lose on the chance that the small position becomes a life-changing investment. Bitcoin may be a once-in-a-lifetime asymmetric opportunity, so don’t blow it. Pace yourself - it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.IntoTheBlock will be providing their analysis tomorrow instead of today.Chart Request Live Stream at 2 PM EST. Please follow the rules. I cannot take requests at any other time, so if you send them during a different window they may not get charted. Remember, no more email requests.1 chart per person, per weekSubmit your request between now and 1 PM EST.You can only submit your request through the link below.If it is not on TradingView, there is a chance I will not able to chart it.I can not guarantee I will do your chart, I will do my best.Chart Request FormStream link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-OdB8POjicIf you are a new member, please refer to Issue 236 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-236-think-like-a-whale-592727) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.In This Issue:Asymmetric BetsBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsGermany Approves Institutional Crypto InvestingAnother Hedge Fund Is Jumping Into CryptoEIP-1559 Is Pushed Back... AgainMy Recommended Platforms And Tools
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The Wolf Den #280 - Asymmetric Bets
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This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the world's best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO“Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.” — Jeff BezosTomorrow I am releasing an epic conversation with Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow: Why Deflation Is The Key To An Abundant Future." In our conversation, we explicitly talked about why Bitcoin is the best asymmetric bet of our time and potentially the greatest asymmetric bet to ever exist. I can’t wait for you to listen to his thoughts on the topic in the conversation. Below are my thoughts on asymmetric bets.The idea of taking bets with asymmetric upside is nothing new. As I discuss often, poker players will push all of their chips into a pot when the odds are against winning the hand because the “pot odds” favor the move. If you have a 30% of winning the hand, but only have to bet $100 more dollars with the chance of winning $1000, you make that bet every single time.The caveat to Bezos’s quote is that you can’t make this bet with all of your capital. And an important nuance it is! A poker player might push in all of the chips they have on the table, but they likely only have about 1-2% of their entire bankroll in play.If you put your entire portfolio into a single investment that only has a 10% chance of success, the odds are irrelevant. 90% of the time you will be left destitute. The spirit of the quote is correct, but the context is important. This is why traders ONLY TRADE with a small part of their portfolio, keeping the rest in stronger long-term investments. You can make the “Bezos bet” with a small percentage of your portfolio many times over without blowing up your entire portfolio.Never go truly all-in on a bet with a low chance of success - rather, risk what you can afford to lose on the chance that the small position becomes a life-changing investment. Bitcoin may be a once-in-a-lifetime asymmetric opportunity, so don’t blow it. Pace yourself - it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.IntoTheBlock will be providing their analysis tomorrow instead of today.Chart Request Live Stream at 2 PM EST. Please follow the rules. I cannot take requests at any other time, so if you send them during a different window they may not get charted. Remember, no more email requests.1 chart per person, per weekSubmit your request between now and 1 PM EST.You can only submit your request through the link below.If it is not on TradingView, there is a chance I will not able to chart it.I can not guarantee I will do your chart, I will do my best.Chart Request FormStream link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-OdB8POjicIf you are a new member, please refer to Issue 236 (you can click on it here - https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/issues/the-wolf-den-236-think-like-a-whale-592727) for instructions on how to make my charts your own.In This Issue:Asymmetric BetsBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsLegacy MarketsGermany Approves Institutional Crypto InvestingAnother Hedge Fund Is Jumping Into CryptoEIP-1559 Is Pushed Back... AgainMy Recommended Platforms And Tools