The Wolf Den #256 - The Parable Of The Ox Revisited (FREE ISSUE)
thewolfden.substack.com
One of the most common questions that I am asked about Bitcoin is “where is all of this going?” Back in early December, my team and I discussed where we thought the top of this cycle would be, and each of us had our own favorite chart, model, or prediction that didn't offer any more clarity than the next. After mindless debating, we found an old wives’ tale to actually help us land at an agreeable Bitcoin top prediction - The Parable Of The Ox.The “Parable Of The Ox” is about a competition in the early 1900s where hundreds of people would attempt to guess the weight of an ox at a county fair. The winner got to keep the ox. Farmers, mathematicians, philosophers, locals, and travelers took the competition very seriously. At one point, famous statistician Francis Galton recognized that the average of all guesses was extremely close to the actual weight of the ox. Rather than throw out his own educated guess, he relied on the accrued predictions of others, including even the absurdly low and high guesses. What he found was that the average of everyone else's predictions almost perfectly matched the weight of the ox.Galton’s method works very well in finance, especially when a million people are shouting a million guesses on each end of the spectrum. Crypto Twitter has offered us the opportunity to look at everyone’s guesses, including the ones we both love and hate. So back in December, we decided to compile the top 9 Bitcoin predictive models, and taking the average of the predictions, we calculated $235,000 to be the average prediction for this cycle top. You might think that our 9 favorite models aren't a good representation offered by the market, but we found someone who ran the same test after ours on the 200 top predictions. His average turned out to be $231,931, giving strong confluence to our idea in general.Will it go there? I have no idea, but I do find the calculation to be a reasonable sweet spot. There are so many variables affecting where the cycle top could land, so I won’t bother spending too much time on the idea, but the simplicity of the prediction is fascinating and one that I can’t help but consider. I have continued to cite this magic number during interviews and press conferences and plan to stick with it through this cycle. $235,000 here we come (hopefully).If you do desire to get this email more often, you can join the paid version!The paid version is only $15 a month and goes out every single weekday. It is just like the issue you are currently reading! Composing this newsletter is how I spend the majority of my time, and I take the fact that my members are paying me very seriously. I would love to have you become a more frequent part of this community.https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/membersIf you cannot pay with a credit card, please respond to this email and we can get you setup with crypto. If you do want to pay with crypto, I can offer 7 months for the price of 6, or 14 months for the price of 12 for the inconvenience!This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.COIn This Issue:The Parable Of The OxBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsChart RequestsHow To Sell BitClout TokensGoogle Is Welcoming More Crypto AdsBiden Administration Focusing On Crypto In Ransomware AttacksCentral Bank Digital Currencies Are The Future (In Russia)The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Henry FongCheck Out Cosmos!My Recommended Platforms And Tools
The Wolf Den #256 - The Parable Of The Ox Revisited (FREE ISSUE)
The Wolf Den #256 - The Parable Of The Ox…
The Wolf Den #256 - The Parable Of The Ox Revisited (FREE ISSUE)
One of the most common questions that I am asked about Bitcoin is “where is all of this going?” Back in early December, my team and I discussed where we thought the top of this cycle would be, and each of us had our own favorite chart, model, or prediction that didn't offer any more clarity than the next. After mindless debating, we found an old wives’ tale to actually help us land at an agreeable Bitcoin top prediction - The Parable Of The Ox.The “Parable Of The Ox” is about a competition in the early 1900s where hundreds of people would attempt to guess the weight of an ox at a county fair. The winner got to keep the ox. Farmers, mathematicians, philosophers, locals, and travelers took the competition very seriously. At one point, famous statistician Francis Galton recognized that the average of all guesses was extremely close to the actual weight of the ox. Rather than throw out his own educated guess, he relied on the accrued predictions of others, including even the absurdly low and high guesses. What he found was that the average of everyone else's predictions almost perfectly matched the weight of the ox.Galton’s method works very well in finance, especially when a million people are shouting a million guesses on each end of the spectrum. Crypto Twitter has offered us the opportunity to look at everyone’s guesses, including the ones we both love and hate. So back in December, we decided to compile the top 9 Bitcoin predictive models, and taking the average of the predictions, we calculated $235,000 to be the average prediction for this cycle top. You might think that our 9 favorite models aren't a good representation offered by the market, but we found someone who ran the same test after ours on the 200 top predictions. His average turned out to be $231,931, giving strong confluence to our idea in general.Will it go there? I have no idea, but I do find the calculation to be a reasonable sweet spot. There are so many variables affecting where the cycle top could land, so I won’t bother spending too much time on the idea, but the simplicity of the prediction is fascinating and one that I can’t help but consider. I have continued to cite this magic number during interviews and press conferences and plan to stick with it through this cycle. $235,000 here we come (hopefully).If you do desire to get this email more often, you can join the paid version!The paid version is only $15 a month and goes out every single weekday. It is just like the issue you are currently reading! Composing this newsletter is how I spend the majority of my time, and I take the fact that my members are paying me very seriously. I would love to have you become a more frequent part of this community.https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen/membersIf you cannot pay with a credit card, please respond to this email and we can get you setup with crypto. If you do want to pay with crypto, I can offer 7 months for the price of 6, or 14 months for the price of 12 for the inconvenience!This newsletter is sponsored by PHEMEX, the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage. Sign up with the link above and get some free Bitcoin. I really encourage you to check them out.IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.COIn This Issue:The Parable Of The OxBitcoin Thoughts And AnalysisAltcoin ChartsChart RequestsHow To Sell BitClout TokensGoogle Is Welcoming More Crypto AdsBiden Administration Focusing On Crypto In Ransomware AttacksCentral Bank Digital Currencies Are The Future (In Russia)The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Henry FongCheck Out Cosmos!My Recommended Platforms And Tools