The Wolf Den #140 - Ledger Hacked, Elon Musk Memed
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I shorted Bitcoin this weekend on an overbought bearish divergence with RSI on the 4-Hour chart. This is a mirror of the setups that I successfully longed here from $16,300 and $17,700. It works at the bottom and it works at the top. If you remain unbiased and unemotional, these signals are as clear as day.
Further, I drew out what I was looking for here on all 3 of those setups before they happened. I cannot see the future, they just happened to play out. But the point is that I know what I am looking for and ready to trade it if it happens, which it did in these cases.
Here are all three of those, drawn before they happened and shared in the newsletter.
Short from $24,000:
Long from $17,700:
Long from $16,300:
So what is happening with Bitcoin now? The short answer is that it's at a bit of a pivotal spot on small time frames. The signs at the top for a short were clear. Bear div, ascending wedge, declining volume, RSI overbought. I shorted at $24,000 and closed at $22,320 (just above support).
All of those have somewhat played out. As I said last week, I still think that a retest of the previous all time high (around 20K) is possible and plausible. You expect to eventually see key resistance retested as support. Further, 4 Hour RSI is now just under 50 - it has not nearly reached oversold. We know that RSI travels eventually from overbought to oversold and back, so that will happen. The question is where price will go sideways, or if it will go back up to overbought first. We can't trade on this info. Here is the current chart.
We saw a meaningful spike in volume on the drop, which means that it was a real move... unlike the weekend rise on low volume. Now we wait to see if there is follow through. At the moment, we have a nice potential reversal candle on the 4-Hour but have a few hours left. We also have a nice wick below support and a potential close above - right after the last candle stopping on support. A small bullish SFP. That's at $22,316. For now, any 4 hour close below that would signal more potential downside. Holding it is positive.
We also have a small bullish divergence in oversold territory on the hourly. Hourly divs are great for a quick bounce, but not ideal for reversals. So we will wait and see. That is shown here:
Altcoin Charts
LINK/BTC
Bad news: LINK broke support horizontally and ascending. Ok, it happens.
Good news: Price is coming to another area with major support and RSI is extremely oversold on basically all time frames. I think that this is a good shot for a scalp, if not a reversal. But this will largely depend on what Bitcoin does from here. You can see the black line, but this entire area is support based on all of the price action off to the left. This is the first time the area has been retested. I would NOT take a big position here, but if you are looking for a longer term swing trade on LINK, I could definitely see starting to build a position here. I would start small.
LINK/USD
I have been posting this chart with this demand zone for weeks. I did not catch it, because I was not paying attention and did not place any standing orders. I am sure some of you did. This is a clear support for LINK and very easy trade. If it drops below, you stop out and move on with a small loss.
ORN/BTC
I have been charting this for members for weeks. The head and shoulders played out, somewhat savage drop. That said, price is now testing the all time lows at a key support level, which should not break too easily (unless Bitcoin drops hard maybe). I am not trading this pair, but this is an area I would be watching if you are. Below this box is price discovery for all time lows, easy to let go. Safest entry would be a break of the blue line, but I could see buying support here.
Legacy Markets
No trades here today, just a comment that the market looks very shaky. There was news on COVID mutations from the UK that many took as bearish for vaccines and for immunity, and the market seems to be reacting. I doubt that this will be of major consequence, but it's a tough time to be trading stocks at the moment, so we will watch and wait.
$DUCK - Duck Liquidity Pool
This is another project that I have invested in and am very excited about it. It is being listed today on Uniswap. DYOR, of course. I invested in the presale, likely lower than the price that it will hit the market at today. Still, this has a ton of long term potential and is a great project.
Background:
Duck Liquidity Pool was pioneered by DuckDao, the world’s largest and most popular crowd-backed digital asset incubator. With DuckDaoDime (DDIM), we revolutionized the early stage crypto investment market. Next, we incubated and successfully launched some of the earliest DeFi projects in the space.
As DuckDao moved from one step to the next, it became clearer that the yield farming industry and digital asset market making were not currently designed for longer term success of all involved stakeholders. Hence, we went back to the drawing board and built a DeFi market making solution that also provides a long term passive income to all liquidity providers.
The $Duck Token:
The Duck Liquidity Pool is a DuckDAO DeFi Market Maker protocol that will provide an opportunity for yield farmers to take advantage of the new opportunities with real skin in the game. At the very core of the DLP is the “One-Sided Token Burn” (Unilateral burn) which is counterintuitive at first, because it burns 50% of the earned rewards. However, the high expected APY levels, access to 50% of profits from market making, airdrop of incubated project tokens and customized NFT campaigns can result in compounding of long term passive income. The Duck Liquidity Token’s ticker is $DUCK
Benefits vs existing yield farming options:
The $DUCK token will be listed on Uniswap during a 5 hour window between 12 pm and 5 pm UTC on Monday, 21st December 2020. Pre-Staking of LP into DUCK/ DDIM and DUCK/ETH tokens will open a few hours later. Pools part of the Duck Farm start generating rewards from Wednesday, and the exact block will be communicated on their official Telegram and Twitter channels soon.
Ledger Breach And Everything You Need To Know
Crypto Twitter exploded yesterday in response to the frightening news that Ledger, the France based crypto hardware company known for superior privacy and security, was breached. A list of over one million customers who have purchased from Ledger was exposed including names, addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses. The hack occurred back in June, but the stolen information was shared yesterday. Your funds stored on your Ledger are safe as long as you don’t click on a scam email. The most important part here is that anyone receiving emails from Ledger needs to be extremely cautious moving forward. Hackers are attempting to conduct email phishing attacks with the stolen information and there have even been reports that “apology emails” are being sent out by fake Ledger addresses in order to steal your funds. At this point, all emails you receive from Ledger should be compared to their official website to avoid clicking on a link that could lead to a loss of funds.
There are also reports of threatening emails from fake criminals, saying they have your address and are coming to your house unless you pay. We are going to see a lot of this.
The hack serves as a wake-up call to not only companies and their reckless practices but people blindly believing they are safe. Hacks are a part of the game and will continue as long as there is money in the space.
Elon Musk Is Flirting With Bitcoin (Again)
Elon Musk has been tweeting a lot about Bitcoin recently, so much so that people are beginning to speculate that Tesla could buy Bitcoin with part of their cash reserve. Elon’s tweets are incredibly cryptic - nobody has any idea what they mean. However, it has become apparent that Bitcoin has caught the attention of Elon. If Tesla were to put any of its cash reserves into Bitcoin, even half a percent, it would be huge news on both traditional fronts and in the crypto space.
Elon's tweets even drew Michael Saylor into the conversation, offering to explain exactly how to buy billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin.
I think Elon is likely just trolling a bit and having fun with the community, but you can be sure that the world and other CEOs and billionaires are watching.
1 XRP = 1.0073 Spark
If you held your XRP on a participating platform on December 12th, you will be receiving Spark Token at some point in the first half of 2021. It has been calculated that you will receive 1.0073 Spark for each XRP you hold. Since every major exchange participated in the airdrop, the amount of Spark you will be receiving decreased because there were many participants. The value of the token will be unknown until the day of the airdrop/listing.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.