The Wolf Den Crypto Newsletter - Issue #10
Make My Charts Your Own!
When I share a chart link, it is possible for you to make the chart your own so that you can adapt my ideas, track the trade and add lines and patterns of your own! If you click on any of the links below (or my charts in any other newsletter), you will see the following list of items on the bottom right of the chart. Click on the bullhorn, which is the second one from the right, shown below.
After you have clicked on that icon, the below screen will appear. You click the big blue box that says "Make It Mine!" Now you can do whatever you want with the chart. I just ask that you do not share them publicly as your own, especially with my colors and style. These ideas are for you and you alone.
BTC
I did not intend to discuss Bitcoin, but have some very quick thoughts to share. It looks decidedly weak on short time frames. The 4 hour 21 EMA (and on other time frames lately) seems to be significant. You can see that price broke below it, tested it as resistance and dropped. Not great. Also, the black line is the top of the former trading range that price finally broke above. We do not want to see candles starting to close back in that range. This 4 hour candle is key and worth watching.
On the less negative side, the potential hidden bullish divergence with RSI is still intact on the 4 hour chart and volume has been decreasing with price since the top. That's a sign of consolidation - price and volume are not in agreement. Low conviction selling so far.
Chart Requests
ATOM/BTC
First, I have outlined all of the key levels of support and resistance on the daily chart, which you can see above. These can likely be used as areas of interest for buying and selling long into the future.
Price is currently working on a daily hidden bullish divergence with RSI, a signal of likely continuation. This would confirm at candle closing today, with a defined elbow up on RSI showing a definite change in direction. This looks very good - if alts perform well in the coming days, this would be a nice candidate for a trade.
That said, it did technically break its uptrend, shown in this channel. The good news there is that it's ascending so price can rise and still remain below it. Immediate target to me would be the next blue line.
BCH/USD
As with most large cap USD pairs, this will likely go as BTC goes for the moment. That said, price has been in a sustained uptrend from the December bottom and has managed to break up from the ascending channel. It is currently retesting the channel as support, as well as a key level of support and resistance shown in the grey box. That means that price is currently testing two key areas of support (top of channel, grey box) - nice confluence. This could be a very good entry with a tight stop below the grey zone with regards to risk and reward. Price should hit the low $300s at least if this area holds.
That said, price is finding resistance at the most key level of the chart - the top of the descending channel. It is STILL in a macro downtrend. ETH and LTC look exactly the same Vs. BTC at the moment. BTC has to rise for this to really become a solid trade.
BQX/BTC
The weekly chart is somewhat comical. This is the picture of something that is completely dead, like many alt coins charts. But perhaps it can rise from the ashes! The best sign here is the massive increase in volume over the past two weeks, larger BY FAR than at any other time in this coin's trading history. Clearly there is some interest again, although it is worth noting that this volume could be a result of the largest holders pumping the price a bit to exit their positions.
The daily is interesting. Price pumped massively, right into the resistance at the bottom of the overhead supply zone, shown by the red arrow. Bulls would really like to have held 364, the most immediate area that could have flipped from resistance to support. That was not to be, clearly.
That said, price is now sitting on the last line of defense before a full retrace of this move becomes likely - 309 sats. I am not sure if this is going to go up, but this would be a good entry in terms of risk and reward for an interested trader. Further, price has dropped on decreasing volume, which means that price action and volume are not in agreement. This is often a sign of consolidation - the volume tends to appear again on the next move up.
EOS/USD
EOS remains in an uptrend, largely as a result of the recent rise of Bitcoin. Price attempted to break out of the ascending channel but failed, running into resistance there and the top of the Bollinger Band. Price was clearly rejected and is now sitting back at the EQ of the ascending channel. After exiting the BBands to either side, price usually reverts back to at least the center, so there could be a bit more immediate downside here - that would line up somewhat well with the bottom of the channel.
When in doubt, ZOOM OUT! This looks extremely bullish - a break of the downtrend since May and retest of the top resistance as support. If you are trading long term and believe that BTC will generally rise, this looks like a potentially profitable trade.
HOT/BTC
Little has changed since I last shared HOT. I believe that it has broken the downtrend from the all time high, as shown on the break of the descending channel. Now it is ranging from 7-13 sats. Above 10 would be more encouraging. A break below 7 would be a negative development. Not much to see here for the moment.
IOST/BTC
As you likely know, I was trading IOST until recently when it broke support and started to drop. It's sitting in a bit of no man's land at the moment. It has bounced a bit, right off of the S1 pivot at 57 sats (shown in light grey lines). When trading pivots, this indicates a likely move up to the next pivot, in this case the P at 72 sats. This would also coincide with a test of the red descending resistance that has been formed by the local downtrend. That is one trade idea.
Personally, I am waiting for a larger drop (which very well may not come!) to the demand area shown as a white horizontal channel at the bottom of the chart. A touch of 53 sats would be very interesting to me for an entry.
LEND/BTC
LEND is a tough read for me as a result of the huge move up around the New Year. I actually trade this months ago at 51 sats on the double bottom shown, but exited long ago and never checked the chart again. Looks like it kept going! It seems to be traveling in an ascending channel and trading right around the EQ (equilibrium, dashed line) at present. Key areas are marked on the chart. I personally can't see a way to trade this at the moment, a bit too crazy for my taste!
LTC/BTC
The BTC pair for LTC continues to look bearish to me. It has remained in a downtrend since roughly March of 2019. It dropped into a clear trading range (the horizontal channel shown) in September and traded sideways until December. At this point, it dropped below the range and has failed to recapture it since. That would be a key sign of a potential reversal for me. Otherwise, any entry is a bit of a knife catch. The red descending line is the immediate down trend that needs to be broken, but that would still be a small move. Personally not interested until price is back in the range. Price is also currently trading below all relevant EMAs.
LTC/USD
LTC looks a bit better on the USD pair - a rising tide floats all boats, meaning that the rise of BTC has carried USD pairs up. Still, as you can see from the BTC pair, a trader would still be better sitting in BTC than trading other pairs, even with their rise against USD. It's a less significant gain.
I did not need to do anything to this chart, which I had not opened in over a month. Price bounced above the key demand structure at the bottom and recaptured an immediate resistance as support. That said, price is now tackling the key descending resistance which would indicated a break of the long downtrend. ETH/USD looks much the same. A "safe" entry on this pair would be a break of that line, even better a retest as support.
$49 would be a great area to target for a break of horizontal resistance.
POE/BTC
Bounce or die. Price tapped the all time low at 18 sats today. I remember trading this aggressively at well over 1000 SATS! Insane. There is so little to say about this chart. If price is going to bounce and hold the all time low, then this is a great potential entry from a risk/reward perspective. Easy to cut with a drop a few sats below 18. The immediate descending resistance is shown in red.
XTZ/BTC
FOMO FOMO FOMO, drop. Everyone was going nuts for Tezos, while I was calmly calling it a sell at the top, based on the extremely overbought conditions and clear bearish divergence with RSI. The tides have turned and this coin looks potential very good. It bounced off of the key support (white horizontal line) and is now testing descending resistance. If successful, this could really blast off. Watch that line for a break on volume (potentially happening now) and even a potential retest as a really great entry. The best entry was at that horizontal support.