The Wolf Den - Chart Requests
BTC Dominance
Quick note on the notion of alt season. For the first time in forever (cue Elsa and Anna), we saw alts rise against BTC while BTC was itself rising. Bitcoin price went up while Bitcoin Dominance dropped. This was a very positive signal for alts. Many months ago I pointed out a shooting star on the weekly chart (circled) and a failure for Dominance to flip resistance to support.
The drop this week is encouraging, but no major level has been broken. In fact, Dominance bounced right off of the ascending black line and horizontal purple line. I believe alt season is more likely when those supports are broken and they are strong.
Chart Requests
ADA/BTC
Ranging in blue. Very simple. Bulls wants to see the center line, the equilibrium of the range, hold.
ADA/USD
Key levels shown. Still effectively ranging between black lines with blue lines as key levels. Broke immediate downtrend.
BAT/BTC
I have been watching this weekly chart for months. It broke down the key black support ages ago. I viewed this as the start of a long downtrend, which was the case. At present, it is sitting right on the most important level on the chart (top purple line). If you are a believer, this area could be a good entry - especially if it can flip the 21 EMA to support. I bought a bit there.
BEYOND MEAT (BYND)
As discussed in the last newsletter, I exited this near the top. Thank goodness! It dropped like a stone. Never be greedy!
CRONOS GROUP (CRON)
This looks pretty good, although there were already better entries before the move up. Price bounced perfectly from weekly demand (blue zone on the right and has clearly made the move to the upside of the range it was in (not shown). Big weekly candle. Volume has been increasing on both the daily and weekly, which is bullish when it coincides with rising price. The daily chart on the left shows a perfect move up to the R2 pivot - to the penny. After that, you expect some consolidation before another likely push up. Weekly shows the main downtrend line that a risk averse trader would like to see broken before entering.
EOS/BTC
EOS formed a massive head and shoulders on the weekly that I posted many months ago. It just reached the neckline as resistance and was rejected for now. Interesting stuff. You can see on the left that price exited the top of it's range and is retesting as support. This should be bullish consolidation, so I am generally feeling good about EOS here. The 200 EMA (red line) acted as perfect resistance. EOS needs a real push with volume here to break all of this resistance, but that could happen. Personally if I was not in, I would be waiting for confirmation to buy, or taking a shot on support with a tight stop.
EOS/USD
I have analyzed this a few times of late. Nothing has changed in my view. Very nice breakout, likely consolidating now. I did take some profits off the table, which I always do on a large impulsive move in case it retraces.
ETH/BTC
Many majors look similar. Still really just ranging - ETH lagging a bit, still below the channel EQ and other levels of resistance. Not so into it here on the BTC pair. Safer entries above with breaks of resistance, or below at support, depending how it goes.
ETH/USD
Same as it has been. Broke resistance, consolidating.
IOTA/BTC
Key levels noted. Broke downtrend with volume on a strong candle. New local support (hopefully) in purple. That could be a decent entry, or a retest further down of the descending line (unlikely). Also a flip of the level above. would be encouraging.
KMD/BTC
I have not opened this chart in almost a year and nothing has changed. The downtrend (blue line) still intact and the main line is the top black one. Daily on the left shows bullish divergence with RSI and a nice pop off of support. This could target the line above. A nice entry would be a flip of that line to support. A bit in no-man's land here, but should continue up on that div.
KNC/BTC
Broke downtrend. Ranging at the moment in the blue zone. Holding the ascending support. That's basically it for the moment. Would like to see it break the top of the range for some confirmation it is likely to continue up.
LINK/BTC
I have analyzed and posted this a few times, feel free to look back. I am in from the purple line and think this still looks bullish. This was the only alt I was actively trading still on Tuesday before alts starting to pump a bit. Straightforward.
NEO/BTC
NEO looks good. It pumped, consolidated and broke out of consolidation. NEO then retested the blue descending line as support. That was the best entry. That said, it is currently testing local resistance as support. Pretty good risk/reward in this area.
NETFLIX (NFLX)
Netflix is one of my biggest holdings. I am up over 300% on my entry, which I took when it dropped massively for no rational reason the day that Brexit was first announced. I bought the dip hard and was up 15% within 2 days. That is my favorite kind of trade in the stock market - a day when everything drops, but the fundamental value of an individual company is unchanged.
Technically still looks bullish to me. It is ranging, but also forming a bull pennant. If the market continues to rip, this should continue to go with it!
REN/BTC
If you have been following me for a while, you know that I traded REN exceptionally well through the huge up trend and called the top numerous times on the way down. I am very proud of the way I analyzed this coin over the past year.
I opened a fresh chart to give an unbiased view and this is what I see. I think that price has broken the downtrend and was rejected at the white resistance. I want to really see price above that. There is a new local uptrend, the light blue line. Price is also finding support on the 21 and 50 EMAs, but resistance at the 200. It would be ideal to see price above all of these. I am looking to enter on a break of 603 and flip to support, or a bounce off of the light blue line with a tight stop. I was not watching on the breakout from the pink line, which would have been a great entry.
RLC/BTC
I opened my old chart and it had the Ichimoku cloud already on it, which was worth taking a look at. First, key levels are laid out in black - appears that price bounced nicely from support at 4950 and is finding resistance at 6150. Interestingly, this line also coincides with the bottom of the daily cloud. Price has wicked a number of times into the cloud and been rejected - this is not a surprised with a flat kumo bottom, which is expected to be strong resistance.
I would want nothing to do with this coin until it closes a candle in the cloud and above that line and tests it as support. The drop below the cloud was bearish, and the Tenkan (blue line) bearishly crossed the Kijun (brown line) a while back.
RVN/BTC
Meh. Twitter is all over this one, it's being heavily shilled. It is sitting in a major area of support, so this could be a good entry. That blue zone is weekly demand. But there are no great signs to me that it's ready to go. It continues to return to this zone after small moves out, which would indicate that it is strong support but also likely weakening with each test. A move down below the 260 area would be all time low price discovery, so it's definitely a bit risky all around this area. I can definitely see a trader who doesn't mind the risk trying to buy the "bottom" here.
Incidentally, I tweeted this recently:
SQUARE (SQ)
I was holding square for a major run, but exited on the bear div shown in 2018 almost at the exact top. I have not looked at it since. In that time, it broke down from the ascending channel it was in and has been ranging - for over a year. It's above the EQ of the range, which is more bullish than bearish, and could target the top once again around 82. But for now it's generally sideways.
UBER
You are probably aware that I was short Uber from around $44 down to the bottom, and closed it when it recaptured $28 as support. I am a fan of the service, but think it's a terrible company from a business perspective. Until the cars drive themselves, I cannot see how they will be in profit dealing with their drivers. It's a glorified app company until that happens, in my opinion.
That said, price has moved nicely up. It is not overbought on the daily, and there is a still a major gap (grey box) around $41. I am personally looking to short that area if the gap fills, but I am not sure it has enough juice to even get there. I would potentially short the top green line if it gets there, or a break of the green line below. I have a fundamental bias here, so if you have a more favorable view of the company, my analysis can be somewhat ignored!
VET/BTC
VET/BTC
I like this project fundamentally, for what it's worth. I was trading this coin on the breakout of the major downtrend and sold it on the very clear bearish divergence. I shared this in Discord and on Twitter.
Still does not look good to me. There was a clear head and shoulders formed (although the volume profile on the breakdown is poor) on the daily after the move up. Now it has broken down and is testing the neckline as resistance. Not into it.
WTC/BTC
WTC was in all time low price discovery until two days ago, when it popped on significant volume. Volume has been generally rising for a couple of weeks now, which could be a good sign that the downtrend is finally over. Price is still below the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA which is so high on the screen you can't even see it! The first step to a reversal here would be flipping the first black line to support. Right now it has a wick slightly above, which could turn into a bearish SFP if we do not see continuation. Above the line is a good sign!
XMR/BTC
XMR is knocking on the bullish door right now - hard. It is at multiple levels of key resistance, with increasing volume over the past few weeks. If it can break that descending and horizontal line together with volume, then this could move into an epic uptrend. As always, depends largely on Bitcoin. But this has been lagging, so if we see any sort of alt season, I would feel quite bullish on XMR. I am waiting for the breakout - not buying resistance. Alarms set.
XRP/BTC
XRP always seems to have it's moments, but I am really pretty tired of this coin and it's team. Every time there is a move up, large amounts of XRP seem to move to exchanges and sell into the buy orders, stifling price. There was a clear hidden bear div on the last pump, which resulted in an even bigger dump. Just ugly and hard to trade with any level of confidence.
A present, it is in a downtrend still, with a few descending lines of resistance yet to clear before it looks even slightly bullish.
XTZ/BTC
No change in the chart from last time. It still "broke out" but has been riding the line down as "support" and is now below the key horizontal level. A move above this level and retest as support could signal that it's finally ready to reverse back up.
ZEN/BTC
I drew a descending broadening wedge on this chart months ago and never looked again - and it just broke out. This is in a sustained up trend, and breaking the major downtrend. It is likely to consolidate here to get the juicy to pop up once again. The top of the wedge would be the immediate target. Watch for it to hold the blue channel.