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In This Issue:
Market Fatigue
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
What Is TON Coin?
There Is A Presidential Debate Today!
Grayscale Has Its Eyes Set On These Assets
VanEck Is Ready To Lead The Charge
The Dumping Begins
Here Is Why Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Is Just Around the Corner
Market Fatigue
Erase everything you think you know about crypto.
Now proceed.
105 days.
That's how long it's been since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of around $73,800. Since then, Bitcoin has fluctuated, dipping as low as $56,555 and occasionally nearing the $71,000 range, but it has yet to reclaim the $72,000 mark.
For other assets, the picture is even bleaker.
ETH hasn't seen its peak in 589 days.
SOL in 600 days.
LTC in 778 days.
DOGE in 780 days.
ADA in 998 days.
XRP in 2,332 days.
TRX in 2,334 days.
The harsh reality is that most coins may never return to their glory days.
Let’s assess where these assets stand relative to their all-time highs:
Bitcoin is down 17.3% from its peak.
ETH trails by 31.3%.
SOL by 47.8%.
LTC has fallen 82.7%.
DOGE by 83.4%.
ADA by 87.55%.
XRP by 87.8%.
The Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi remains depressed, down 47% from its peak of $180 billion recorded 598 days ago. The overall crypto market cap has also receded by 24%, dwindling from a towering $3 trillion over the same period.
Public interest, as reflected by Google Trends, shows a muted picture with Bitcoin scoring a 5-year interest score of 20/100. Ethereum registers 7/100, while Solana, impressively, scores 42/100. Many other coins rest at or below a 5/100, indicative of subdued mainstream attention.
Trading volumes tell a bleak story too, currently at $68.6 billion daily, a significant drop from the heights of $300.6 billion seen earlier in 2021. Active Bitcoin addresses hover around 725,000, sharply down from the 1.2 million to 1.5 million seen in April 2021.
Remarkably, Bored Ape Yacht Club is still holding on, trading at less than 9 ETH each, far from the 153 ETH it was worth 788 days ago.
The Fear & Greed Index barely functions anymore.
If I were to now say, "but we're in a bull market," you’d probably call me an idiot and burst out laughing. Many skeptics might feel vindicated in their bearish outlook right now.
But that’s just one perspective, framed to emphasize the worst-case scenario.
In reality, Bitcoin has already established new cycle highs. Ethereum is bridging Wall Street to crypto through tokenization. Solana is capturing significant retail and stablecoin volume. The performance of last cycle's stars doesn't reflect this cycle's innovations and opportunities.
BlackRock is leading the charge, and Gary Gensler is on the defensive. ETFs are emerging globally, not just for Bitcoin but for Ethereum and Solana too. Coinbase is likely to beat the SEC, and Binance will mostly emerge unscathed. The upcoming presidential election could massively benefit crypto. Stablecoins are growing at an unprecedented rate. Layer 1 competition is driving innovation, and new sectors like RWA, DePin, SocialFi, and AI compute are burgeoning.
It’s all about perspective.
Sure, you could say this cycle is different, but what is a perfect cycle? The last cycle was cut short due to China’s mining ban. Who’s to say this cycle won’t be extended if favorable legislation is enacted and Wall Street fully embraces crypto? The narrative of nation-states adopting a Bitcoin standard will return. And quantitative easing (QE) will come back into play.
Don’t let the market fool you—these types of pessimistic intros are often written near the bottom. The fatigue is palpable, which only means we are almost there. Have a great day, and don't forget about the big-ticket item for markets tonight: the debate. Details are below.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is hugging the range lows, bouncing there as support for the past two days. This looks a bit like May, when Bitcoin broke below the range, bounced and then found support around $60,700 for a few days. Last time it went up after. Will history repeat?
For now, I remain bullish.
Remember, RSI hit oversold for the first time since last August - now any dip will likely give us bullish divergence.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Total 3 is a chart of the entire market cap of crypto excluding BTC and ETH. It is a decent measure of the altcoin market as a whole.
It shows an interesting picture for altcoins. While Bitcoin made a new all time high, it is very clear that ETF money does not trickle down into the rest of the crypto market. Total 3 is barely over 50% of the all time high from 2021, when it reached $1.131T. It is currently at $597.2T.
Bears will tell you that altcoins are dead. Bulls will tell you that a massive altseason is inevitable.
It is up to you to choose, but it is clear that alts have a lot of catching up to do.
Legacy Markets
US equity futures slipped as traders braced for economic data that could shape the Federal Reserve's policy decisions. Micron Technology's disappointing sales forecast weighed heavily on the tech sector, dragging down major tech stocks including Nvidia. Investors are keenly focused on upcoming reports on GDP growth and weekly unemployment claims, which precede crucial inflation figures set to be released tomorrow. These reports are expected to provide clearer signals about the Fed's next moves, especially after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman tempered expectations for interest rate cuts.
Treasury yields remained elevated from the previous day's rise, and a measure of the dollar hovered near an eight-month high. "It's all about the Fed — higher for longer is keeping the front end of rates very high, drawing money into the US and keeping the dollar strong," said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC.
Micron’s underwhelming outlook, despite being roughly in line with analyst estimates, underscored the risks associated with relying on AI chip makers to sustain the stock market rally. The company’s shares fell as much as 8% in premarket trading, impacting other tech giants.
In other premarket moves, International Paper Co. shares plunged after Suzano SA abandoned its bid to acquire the US paper and packaging company, paving the way for International Paper to pursue UK rival DS Smith Plc, whose shares surged.
European markets showed mixed reactions, with the stock benchmark dipping as traders remained cautious ahead of Sunday’s French elections. Notable movements included a more than 14% slump in Hennes & Mauritz AB following an earnings miss, and a decline in GSK Plc after US regulators dealt a blow to its RSV vaccine. Conversely, Gucci owner Kering saw gains following a double-upgrade from Bank of America Corp.
In Asia, stock markets fell across Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and China, putting the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge on course for its first loss in three days. The yen recovered some of its losses after dropping to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986. The MSCI China Index edged closer to a technical correction, dropping about 10% from its May 20 high as traders struggled to find positive catalysts ahead of a key July meeting of Chinese leaders.
In commodities, gold steadied after a two-day decline, while oil traded within a narrow range as markets awaited further US economic data. Iron ore maintained a two-day gain, supported by signs of increased demand from China following new property measures in the country's major cities.
Overall, markets are in a holding pattern, closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank signals to navigate the current landscape.
Key events this week:
US durable goods, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
Nike releases earnings, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, Friday
US PCE inflation, spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 5:51 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2%
The MSCI World Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0699
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2645
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 160.50 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $61,129.22
Ether was little changed at $3,390.36
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.34%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.47%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.17%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $81.41 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,312.13 an ounce
What Is Ton Coin?
With TON Coin breaching the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap and securing the #8 spot, now is the perfect time for a brief overview. Given its recent surge, we can expect to hear much more about this coin, assuming it maintains its position.
TON Coin’s origins are quite fascinating. Initially developed by Telegram in 2017, TON originally stood for ‘Telegram Open Network,’ designed to support a native cryptocurrency named Gram.
However, the SEC intervened, forcing Telegram’s CEO Pavel Durov to cease the company's involvement with the TON Blockchain and label the coin a security. This setback didn't deter independent developers, who took control of TON, rebranded it as ‘The Open Network,’ and developed TON Coin as its native currency.
If you visit ton.org, you'll immediately notice that the coin is still deeply intertwined with Telegram and not far removed from the platform that created it. The website prominently states: “Getting started is easy, all you need is Telegram.” The most common use cases appear to be transactions and monetization within Telegram.
TON is also exploring other avenues such as NFTs, tokenization, and gaming. However, there haven't been any major releases in these areas yet. It seems that TON’s success is closely tied to Telegram’s success, which isn't necessarily a bad position to be in. Just an observation.
I do not own any TON, yet.
There Is A Presidential Debate Today!
In case you didn't know, today, June 27, at 9 p.m. ET, CNN is hosting the first presidential debate. While it's possible that crypto might be mentioned, given that this is the first debate and it's hosted by CNN, it's unlikely to come up unless Trump takes the initiative. Additionally, we are approaching the time when Trump will announce his VP pick. PolyMarket has the following predictions:
*Vivek Ramaswamy is the most pro-crypto person on this list.
Grayscale Has Its Eyes Set On These Assets
In a few days, markets are entering Q3, which has prompted Grayscale to put this research report that lists all of the assets it deems as, “high potential tokens.” Here’s how Grayscale describes the list: “The Top 20 represents a diversified set of assets across Crypto Sectors that, in our view, have high potential over the coming quarter, due to a combination of (i) immediate catalysts or trending themes, (ii) favorable protocol-specific adoption trends, and (iii) low or moderate token supply inflation.”
Several assets had their own extensive features, but one asset stood out as Grayscale’s top pick for Q3. Any guesses?
“Because of potential spot Ethereum ETP approval, we expect a heavy focus on the Ethereum ecosystem this quarter.”
VanEck Is Ready To Lead The Charge
VanEck has become the second issuer to reveal its fee structure for the ETH ETF, opting for a "free now, pay later" model. There will be no fees until the fund either reaches $1.5 billion in AUM or until 2025, whichever comes first. After that, the fee will increase to 0.20%, just slightly higher than Franklin Templeton’s fee of 0.19%.
I like this quote from Eric regarding fees: “What BlackRock is going to charge is probably the single most important missing variable outside of the exact launch date. Their fee is the sun that the rest will need to orbit around.” If the July 2nd date is accurate, it’s only a matter of days until we see BlackRock’s marketing approach for the ETH ETF.
The Dumping Begins
The U.S. government, Germany, and Mt. Gox are all gearing up to sell their Bitcoin holdings. We're doomed—not really. These developments might temporarily delay upward price action, but they won't derail it completely.
Recently, the U.S. government transferred 4,000 BTC to Coinbase Prime, yet it's believed we own somewhere around 210,000 BTC, worth approximately $13 billion, seized from various individuals and organizations. Germany, on the other hand, owns roughly 50,000 BTC, seized in 2013 from a film piracy website. Just this week, the German government moved $24 million in Bitcoin across two transactions to Kraken and Coinbase. And then there's Mt. Gox, the potential triple whammy, still waiting to unfold. If we dip, just buy the Bitcoin they are offering us; it’s that simple.
Is it not ironic that the SEC is suing Coinbase, while the government is casually using it to sell Bitcoin at its convenience? That makes zero sense.
Here Is Why Bitcoin's Next Bull Run Is Just Around the Corner
When to expect Bitcoin to turn bullish? I am joined by Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, who will share his opinion on the crypto market.
Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Please add Solana to your daily Crypto current price list along with BTC and ETH
THEY almost got to me. . . meaning, I almost sold all and parked in Stablecoin “rewards” which in current clime, isn’t a terrible play, imho.
signed,
The Contrarian ;)