The Wolf Den #988 - It's Okay To Be You
Remember what is important.
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In This Issue:
It’s Okay To Be You
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
The Biden Campaign May Accept Crypto
Saylor Swoops In To Save The Day
ETH ETFs Are Coming End Of Summer
There Is A Bill To Kill The Fed
BUY THE DIP: Macro Economist Explains What To Do With Bitcoin Right Now
It’s Okay To Be You
To all my readers, I have some confessions to make:
I will never make enough to retire from a single trade.
I will never risk it all to become a hero.
I will never be a hedge fund manager.
I will never be the CEO of a world changing company.
I will never be a developer who designs cool technology.
I will never make headlines for buying Bitcoin.
And one day, the Wolf Den will become a footnote in crypto history.
Are there moments when I feel a tinge of jealousy and wish this had been me?
Are there times I wonder where I'd be if I had paid attention just a year or two earlier?
Are there instances when I contemplate what could have happened if a few key trades had gone my way?
The answer to all these questions is ‘YES.’ I am human. I think about what could have been, where I could be, and how different my life might look now.
When these thoughts arise, I don't chastise myself for briefly dreaming. Instead, I let them come, then go, and I advise you to do the same.
The OGs know this, but my early professional years were spent as a DJ, traveling across the globe, struggling to earn just enough to reach my next performance. Back then, I used to dream about making ends meet, but was more focused on the quality of my life and pursuing my dream.
I often imagine what my life would be like now if I had discovered crypto with a bit more capital. If I had started with just double or triple the starting stack I began with, I wonder how much further I could have gone.
How many more followers I could have collected…
How much more clout I could have gained…
The Lambos I could be driving in Dubai…
The thoughts come… and they go…
As these thoughts linger, what remains clear is the acknowledgment that the culmination of my life's decisions has led me to this exact moment, and I am deeply grateful for where I find myself today.
Having reached this point, I've come to accept that there are many paths I won't traverse. Yet, I take profound pride in being a devoted husband and father to a family that means the world to me. I consider myself beyond fortunate to provide for them and have time for them each day, a blessing made possible by the unwavering support you've shown me.
Along this journey, I've been privileged to encounter remarkable individuals, extending beyond celebrities, and our favorite industry personalities on Twitter. I'm speaking of the Joes, Johns, Janes, Suzys, Bobs, and Bills from across the globe who paused to greet me and share their stories.
You. Yes you. The reader makes this all worthwhile.
Every day, I'm filled with both immense joy and a sense of responsibility for the position I hold. Yet, I consistently remind myself that what truly matters is our collective presence here, steadily advancing toward a shared goal at our own pace and giving our best effort each day.
Crypto owes its existence to us, and we wouldn't wield the transformative power we do without crypto. This unique relationship goes both ways.
I applaud those who aspire to be CEOs, hedge fund operators, billion-dollar traders, and Lamborghini enthusiasts. I respect your love of the game.
I also admire those who diligently invest $10 into Bitcoin daily while working a 9-5 job, gradually stacking to half a Bitcoin, and eventually, a whole Bitcoin.
Your goals, dreams, and aspirations deserve the utmost respect.
Embrace your confidence, cherish those close to you, and steadfastly push the needle at a pace that feels right for you.
It’s okay to win slowly. I chose a slow and steady approach, and surprisingly, it accelerated my success in life everywhere else. I can hug my kids - in the middle of this sentence - or my wife. And I wouldn’t trade it for the world. As much as Bitcoin will change the world, it has the power to change you.
After all, what is the point of storing value and accumulating wealth if not to share it with those you love? And more importantly, to buy more time to spend with them doing the things you enjoy.
Thank you so much for reading - have a wonderful weekend!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is dancing around $67,000 support. Technically, yesterday’s daily candle closed below and today’s has tested it as resistance. That said, price is right around it, so hard to worry for the moment.
If support breaks convincingly, then price is likely to range once again in the bottom half - between $67,000 and $60,000.
Once again, I have minimal expectation that anything dramatic outside of the range will happen for quite a while.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Legacy Markets
European stocks faced their worst week since October due to political turmoil in France, sparked by President Macron's announcement of a snap legislative election. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.8%, with France’s CAC 40 index losing its gains for the year. Major banks like BNP Paribas and Societe Generale suffered significant losses. The euro weakened against the dollar, hitting its lowest point since April.
US equity futures also fell as investors sought safer assets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are expected to open lower, despite recent record highs. Treasury yields declined, while the dollar strengthened against other major currencies.
The market's anxiety is driven by fears that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, leading in polls, could implement looser fiscal policies. This has increased the premium on French debt relative to Germany, reminiscent of the European debt crisis in 2011.
Despite the turmoil, European earnings and the broader economy remain strong. In Asia, mixed performance saw the MSCI Asia Pacific index slip due to losses in Australian and Chinese stocks, although Japan's benchmark gained. The Bank of Japan’s decision to delay details on bond buying cuts weakened the yen, but a rate hike later this year is still possible.
Key events this week:
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8% as of 10:55 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0687
The Japanese yen was little changed at 157.12 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2730 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.2706
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $66,905.3
Ether rose 1% to $3,512.31
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.21%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 2.37%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.05%
Commodities
Brent crude was little changed
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,321.33 an ounce
Title
The Biden Campaign May Accept Crypto
This is utterly ridiculous—the audacity. The Biden Administration has dragged this industry through hell for nearly four years and is now trying to use our crypto assets (unregistered securities?!) to win re-election, only to continue shitting on us for another term. Under Biden, the SEC is actively suing Coinbase, yet Coinbase is set to facilitate donations for his campaign. This is nonsensical. Moreover, shame on Coinbase for agreeing to this unless they have substantial reason to believe there is a genuine shift in the administration's stance.Saylor Swoops In To Save The Day
Saylor Swoops In To Save The Day
Here are the details: MicroStrategy currently holds 214,400 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $7.54 billion, with an average purchase price of $35,180 per Bitcoin. At current prices, the Nasdaq-listed company holds Bitcoin worth approximately $14.5 billion. If MicroStrategy were to acquire additional Bitcoin at around $67,000 each, the company would obtain about 7,463 BTC, pushing their total to 221,863 BTC. So far, the value of MicroStrategy’s portfolio has doubled. Lastly, the NAV premium is 1.81x, according to mstr-tracker.com. Maybe Saylor buys on a dip for the first time ever.
ETH ETFs Are Coming End Of Summer
Previously, it was widely believed that ETH ETFs would be approved by early July, based on the timeline for Bitcoin S-1s. However, recent reports are now suggesting that the S-1s likely won’t be completed until the end of summer; assuming this information is accurate. I see this as a positive development because the current market conditions are not particularly favorable for an ETF to launch. Another reason I find this news credible is the lack of advertising from any issuers, with the exception of VanEck's single video, "Into The Ether." ETH’s ETF going live while the market is pointing up will be a powerful kickstart we should all be rooting for.
There Is A Bill To Kill The Fed
U.S. Congressman Thomas Massie has introduced a bill called the “Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act,” aiming to abolish the Fed. There's little to say about its chances today, as they're nearly zero, but similar doubts were once voiced about Bitcoin when only a few people owned it. To Massie's surprise, his 2024 bill received two dozen co-sponsors, all Republicans.
BUY THE DIP: Macro Economist Explains What What To Do With Bitcoin Right Now
I am joined by one of my favorite guests, Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter to discuss yesterday's FOMC decision, inflation data and their impact on crypto.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Long term reader, first time commenter. I'm approaching 66 and you are spot on with your comments. Change what you can and let go those things you cannot.
Good words MELKER. 💪