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In This Issue:
24/7/365 For Everyone
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
There Is only One True Pro-Crypto President
Two SEC Lawyers Resign
For The Bulls Only!
Bitcoin Halving Complete And Bitcoin Is Pumping - Will It Continue? | Macro Monday
24/7/365 For Everyone
It's truly mind-boggling that legacy financial markets don't trade 24/7/365.
When discussing this with someone unfamiliar with or uninterested in crypto, the usual defense for set trading hours often includes something along the lines of 'historical tradition' or 'global coordination.' Frankly, it's a load of crap.
I’ll admit that legacy markets ‘work’ in the form they currently exist, but they utterly fail to create a truly efficient market that accommodates global investors and reduces the risk of price gaps between sessions.
Let me illustrate: I currently reside in the Eastern Standard Time zone. The New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ operate from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. EST, which aligns well with the typical working hours of the average American in this zone.
If I were to live in California, the NYSE and the NASDAQ would open at 6:30 a.m. PT and close at 1:00 p.m. PT. This time frame cuts the average working day almost in half.
Now imagine I wanted to trade an American stock while I was in Dubai. The U.S. market there would be open from 5:30 p.m. Gulf Standard Time (GST) to 12:00 a.m. GST the following day. I hope you can see how ridiculous this is.
Here's the last insane scenario: Picture me living in California, already working within the tight window of the NYSE operating hours. Now, if I want to do business with someone in Dubai, coordinating our market open and close times becomes a logistical nightmare and vice versa.
While we should acknowledge the privilege the United States holds as the heart of the world's most significant financial market, it's important to recognize that this acknowledgment alone doesn't address the unfair burden placed on other countries or time zones. An open, free, and fair market wouldn’t force specific trading hours on those attempting to do business with U.S. markets.
Here’s a hot take: Every major financial market should operate 24/7/365.
Trading advantages shouldn't be determined by an individual's arbitrary position on Earth. It's illogical that living in the Eastern Standard Time (EST) zone allows investors to access and react to market news in real-time, while overseas investors must adjust to our operating hours. While I support capitalism and free decision-making, true capitalism (when it comes to markets) isn’t open and closed at set times, and I am unwilling to change my mind.
If you're wondering why I am so passionately writing about this today, it's because I read an article that said, “the Financial Times disclosed that the Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the NYSE, had its data analytics team conduct a survey among its members to evaluate interest in moving to 24/7 trading.”
Who in their right mind would oppose open access to trading? While I acknowledge the challenges in implementing it—such as technological infrastructure, regulatory approval, participant readiness, and global coordination—I am fully convinced it's achievable, as evidenced by the success of crypto.
Additionally, major platforms such as Fidelity, Webull, SoFi, and Acorns are already exploring this concept. Robinhood, in particular, has a fully operational 24/7 market, demonstrating its feasibility. Just imagine the growth opportunities that could arise if trading were accessible around the clock.
24/7/365 trading is a massive advantage for crypto, yet it's often overlooked and forgotten, which shouldn't be the case. Crypto represents a crucial disruptor in a modern digital age. It's frustrating that traditional finance often sticks to outdated practices simply because “that's how it's always been done.” That's just not acceptable.
Vote with your dollars and make your voices heard. Sooner or later, 24/7/365 markets will become a reality, whether through tokenization or legacy markets fearing displacement. When it happens, the credit entirely belongs to crypto and there will be attempts to convince you otherwise.
We live in the most opportune time period in market history. As Raoul Pal says, “Don’t F**k This Up.”
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The chop fest continues. As you can see, Trading Alpha is yet to turn back to grey dots on the daily, meaning that for now we have no clear signals from the indicator. As I have said many times, we are sideways, so the range EQ (the center dashed line) is an obvious place to find some resistance after the nice bounce off of the lows. Things look… fine. My thesis that sideways is the most likely path for a while remains intact.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
I am not currently seeing much in the altcoin market. There were some nice bottom scalp trades on oversold bullish divergence, but now we need to wait and see confirmation of reversals, rather than just bounces. I dug deep into this yesterday on a live stream, so easier to share that here.
Legacy Markets
Stocks and U.S. futures have risen, with investor attention keenly focused on a crucial week of earnings, particularly from the 'Magnificent Seven' megacaps. The S&P 500 and European Stoxx 600 indices both saw gains, driven by strong earnings from top companies and positive economic indicators. This comes amid steady Treasuries and dollar ahead of significant U.S. bond auctions. Despite recent market pullbacks due to geopolitical fears and expectations that the Fed will maintain current interest rates, this earnings season is seen as an opportunity to re-focus on strong corporate fundamentals. Notably, profits for the biggest firms in the S&P 500 are expected to significantly outpace the overall index, although excluding Nvidia, growth estimates are lower. Meanwhile, gold prices dropped and oil prices edged higher as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing.
Key events this week:
US new home sales, Tuesday
Tesla, PepsiCo earnings, Tuesday
BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks, Tuesday
Germany IFO business climate, Wednesday
US durable goods, Wednesday
IBM, Boeing, Meta Platforms earnings, Wednesday
US GDP, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Microsoft, Alphabet, Airbus earnings, Thursday
Japan rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation and GDP forecasts, Friday
US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Exxon Mobil, Chevron earnings, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6% as of 9:19 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0683
The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.83 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2569 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.1% to $1.2364
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $66,095.77
Ether fell 0.9% to $3,161.93
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.62%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.49%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.22%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 1% to $87.83 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,309.08 an ounce
There Is Only One True Pro-Crypto Candidate
It's hard to imagine Washington, D.C. embracing a candidate who proposes making the entire budget publicly available, but that's a topic for another discussion. Radical ideas like this, although they may be objectively better for the American public, need time to take root. I can see a future where the budget is transparently shared on the blockchain, but expecting such a shift to occur in this election cycle, less than a year away? That seems highly unlikely. Nevertheless, I am committed to supporting crypto-friendly candidates, and I encourage you to do the same.
If you want a quick way to assess any politician's stance on crypto, I highly recommend using standwithcrypto.org/politicians. This tool is fantastic; you can filter by party, stance, state, or role, and then click on the politician to see their specific views. StandWithCrypto is a non-profit solely focused on advocating for crypto and is even backed by Coinbase, ensuring its impartiality. The database has over 1,000 politicians, which will be extremely helpful come election season.
Two SEC Lawyers Resign
There isn't much to celebrate here other than two bad actors removing themselves from the swamp. The two lawyers who "resigned" were likely going to be fired anyway; they probably just had the option to resign instead of being fired for fraud. These lawyers were responsible for the DEBT Box scandal, which a Utah judge ruled was "a gross abuse of power by the agency." While the resignation of two lawyers is a step in the right direction, it's far from rectifying the situation. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem that anything else is being done to address the fraud and perjury openly committed by the SEC.
Grayscale Catches Some Heat
Grayscale is attracting new participants with its Mini-BTC Fund, offering the lowest fee in the spot Bitcoin ETF market at 15 basis points (bps). However, long-time investors face a disparity with the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which maintains a substantial annual fee of 1.5%. For context, the closest competitor to the Mini Fund, Franklin Templeton's EZBTC, has fees set at 0.19%, while the highest fee among competitors, WisdomTree's ETF, stands at 0.30%. Below is a quote from a legal source, who expressed significant frustration over the situation.
“Grayscale’s mini spin might be the single most investor unfriendly move I’ve ever seen - let’s fuck over our long term investors who have low cost bases with an egregious fee AND use a subset of their assets to seed a very low fee product to endeavor to raise new AUM. It’s legal and yet also completely indefensible. I can’t wait for Sonnenshein to go on cnbc with some preposterous spin. No one should trust these guys with their capital.”
For The Bulls Only
This isn't news, but rather speculation, so please read with caution.
The concept of diminishing returns is widely accepted among Bitcoin investors, and I find myself in agreement. In its nascent stages, Bitcoin could achieve exponential growth because it was a smaller asset then, making such large multiples possible. Arguing that diminishing returns are irrelevant due to the performance of other risk assets overlooks the significant difference in scale between Bitcoin's early growth and its potential for growth now.
While a 2x increase is notable for mega-cap assets, Bitcoin would need a far greater multiple to replicate its early explosive growth and challenge the idea of diminishing returns. However, there is still a case to be made that this cycle might yield substantial returns under the right conditions. Personally, I consider a lower bound of $140,000 to be reasonable for this cycle. As for a higher bound, I remain very skeptical. Ultimately, only time will reveal the true extent of potential gains.
Bitcoin Halving Complete And Bitcoin Is Pumping - Will It Continue? | Macro Monday
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.