Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
Lumerin Is The Sponsor Of Today’s Newsletter!
Lumerin enables complete control over how and when data and communications are routed via Web3 smart contracts focusing on:
- Decentralization: Smart contracts allow all transactions to be fully peer-to-peer.
- Reliability: Using blockchain nodes for data routing eliminates single points of failure.
- Privacy: Users don’t have to give up their personal data to use the protocol therefore they have a full control over their data
If you want to learn more about Lumerin, scroll down and watch the interview I had with Ryan Condron, CEO of Titan and Lumerin. He is a pioneer in cryptocurrency and has been advocating for Bitcoin's decentralization and anonymity since 2012! You don’t want to miss it.
In This Issue:
Bitcoin Is Unusable!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Earnings Season Is Here
Bitcoin For Corporations Is Back!
The SEC Will Soon Seal Its Fate
Be Careful!
Here’s Why You NEED To Buy Bitcoin Before Countries Start Fighting For It | Ryan Condron
Bitcoin Is Unusable!
Do you like the clickbait headline?
It made me chuckle, but I imagine there’s a Bitcoin maxi out there reading it right now on the verge of having a stroke.
Sorry, pal.
Here’s the good news: the recent Bitcoin halving was nothing short of spectacular.
Following the event, Bitcoin achieved record-breaking daily revenue, soaring to about $107 million from block rewards and transaction fees—a stark increase from the previous high of $77 million set in April 2021.
However, this success came with a significant uptick in transaction fees. Fees skyrocketed to 2,750 Satoshis per virtual byte, approximately $240 per transaction. Although these fees have since decreased, they remain notably high, lingering around the mid $100s.
For miners, this surge in fees is a windfall, but it paints a different picture for everyday users and staunch Bitcoin supporters. The reality is harsh: paying over $100 for a low-priority Bitcoin transaction, with high-priority costs potentially doubling, is impractical for nearly everyone.
While claiming this could signal the end of Bitcoin would be hyperbolic, it underscores the complex challenges crypto must address to garner mainstream adoption. Being the largest asset doesn't shield Bitcoin from speculation, congestion, and other growing pains that all chains experience. Perhaps, the introduction of the Runes protocol by Casey Rodarmor is the wakeup call the industry needs.
The Runes protocol launch has significantly driven up transaction fees due to a surge in the minting and purchasing of BRC-20 tokens. According to Runealpha.xyz, 853 runes were etched within an hour post-launch, with the number climbing to 4,783 by Sunday afternoon.
And there’s an interesting tidbit about block 840,000: while major mining pools clamored for it, it was the underdog, ViaBTC—with only 14% of the hash rate distribution—that captured this block, receiving a record 37.6 BTC in fees, plus the 3.25 BTC reward.
Now, let’s delve deeper into Runes and its implications for Bitcoin’s future.
I found this quote from Baylor Landing, a director at Bitcoin miner Core Scientific, quite striking:
“The first 77 blocks of epoch 5 have generated $75 million in miner revenue. For reference, the final 77 blocks of epoch 4 generated just $35 million. The halving? More like the doubling.”
Indeed, the halving turned out to be a success, but now Bitcoin finds itself embroiled in the very issue it sought to avoid: speculation. While Bitcoin can neither stop the rise of Ordinals nor Runes, it can either embrace tools like the Lightning Network to lessen the impact or allow speculation to naturally play out.
Ultimately, speculators may hop from one blockchain to another, but they will settle where they feel most accommodated. By its very nature, Bitcoin is not designed to serve such transient interests. Although Runes appear to have staying power, both Runes and Bitcoin are poised for significant transformations in the next decade, likely evolving in ways we cannot yet foresee.
As for the transaction fees, this situation marks the dawn of a new era rather than the end of an existing one. The criticism that Bitcoin advocates have historically leveled against other blockchains, like Ethereum or Solana, is now a self-inflicted wound; Bitcoin has become increasingly cumbersome to use by comparison. Even if the current hype subsides, the issue of high fees will persist as a long-term challenge.
In the broader scheme, Runes are just beginning to make their mark and are poised to gain more prominence. However, acquiring them remains a hurdle, particularly for U.S. residents due to limited exchange availability, and their complexity can be daunting even to veteran DeFi enthusiasts. If you're feeling the FOMO about not owning a slice of this emerging technology, take a moment to breathe—sticking with Bitcoin remains the safest and most familiar option.
The future isn't entirely predictable, but if history is any guide, like ETH NFTs or Solana memecoins, 99% of Runes will likely fade away, leaving only a few to stand out as the clear winners.
I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. When thinking about price forecasts, focus on halvings—not weeks, months, or years. Bitcoin is an unstoppable monetary force destined to continuously capture value by overshadowing every asset it encounters. My faith in this is steadfast. Wolf out.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin printed a weekly hammer candle, a sign of a potential reversal. This is generally confirmed by the next candle being green.
As you can see, the candle has a long wick down, with a small body at the top. We have had strong demand for the past two weeks, as shown by the long wicks to the bottom.
This still look absolutely fine.
Bitcoin continues to range sideways, basically from $60,000 to $74,000, give or take. As you can see, the sweep of the range lows was effective, with two wicks below and one perfectly touching the range lows as support. For now, this looks like a local bottom is once again in, which was a bit obvious (in hindsight) from the chart and from the sentiment. Remember how euphoric people were at $74,000, with memecoins going insane and charts overbought with bearish divergence? At the lows we had a number of altcoins oversold and people calling for the end of the bull market.
That is why charts “work.”
Legacy Markets
U.S. equity futures experienced a rise as attention shifted from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to a crucial week of corporate earnings from leading tech companies like Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet. This week is also important for U.S. economic data, with a focus on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
S&P 500 futures advanced approximately 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 contracts increased by 0.7%, signaling a rebound from recent losses. The dollar index held steady, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes increased slightly. Market movements included Nvidia's premarket gain of over 2% and Salesforce rising 3%, while Tesla saw a decline of more than 2% after announcing vehicle price reductions.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index also rose by about 0.4%. Notable stock movements included Prosus NV and Galp Energia, both experiencing significant gains due to corporate developments.
Investor optimism is fueled by the expectation of strong earnings from major tech companies, which are anticipated to help lift the S&P 500 from its recent slump despite concerns over rising bond yields and persistent inflation. This comes amid a broader recalibration of market positions following robust U.S. economic data, with more insights expected later in the week that could influence Fed policy decisions.
Key events this week:
Eurozone consumer confidence, Monday
ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks, Monday
Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, Tuesday
UK S&P Global, CIPS Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
Australia CPI, Wednesday
Indonesia rate decision, Wednesday
IBM, Boeing, Meta Platforms earnings, Wednesday
Malaysia CPI, Thursday
South Korea GDP, Thursday
Turkey rate decision, Thursday
US GDP, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Microsoft, Alphabet, Airbus, Caterpillar earnings, Thursday
Japan rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation and GDP forecasts, Friday
US personal income and spending, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Exxon Mobil, Chevron earnings, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% as of 5:58 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%
The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0651
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2345
The Japanese yen was little changed at 154.77 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $65,915.8
Ether rose 2% to $3,213.08
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.65%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.54%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.25%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.4% to $82.83 a barrel
Spot gold fell 1.3% to $2,361.07 an ounce
Earnings Season Is Here
It’s a MASSIVE week for earnings reports:
Tesla: Tuesday after close
Meta: Wednesday after close
Microsoft: Thursday after close
Google (Alphabet): Thursday after close
Following this week, we have COIN earnings on May 2. As I've said many times before, I believe it's going to drastically exceed all estimations. Of course this is not financial advice, just my guess.
Bitcoin For Corporations Is Back!
Do you recall the monumental "Bitcoin for Corporations" event that took place back in February 2021? Where we were all sure that hundreds, if not thousands, of executives would be convinced over the following months to buy Bitcoin for their respective corporations' balance sheets? At this point, it is probably pretty obvious it didn't pan out that way. However, the event is still ongoing, led by MicroStrategy and Michael Saylor, and is scheduled once again for this coming May 1-2.
From MicroStrategy’s Website: “Bitcoin for Corporations is a unique opportunity for corporate leaders, financial executives, and technology innovators to discuss the future of Bitcoin in the corporate world. The event features expert advice needed for corporations—to plug into bitcoin and reimagine their business—directly from the market’s most credible voices and experienced practitioners.”
Some of the major representatives in attendance include Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud, Bayer, Bank of America, and Hilton. My take is that these companies wouldn't spend resources if they didn't see the value proposition of the conference. The moral of the story is that adoption takes time. Representatives may need to attend multiple conferences to become sufficiently educated and convinced to then go and share their ideas with board members, who then have to convince other executives that Bitcoin is a fit. Adoption takes longer than we anticipate.
The SEC Will Soon Seal Its Fate
The odds of the Ethereum ETF approval are lower than they have ever been on Polymarket—11%. However, May 23rd isn’t just about whether Ethereum secures a win—it's also about whether the SEC wants to catch a lawsuit.
Remember this?
I don’t think Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer would make this statement if he didn’t either A) know that someone was planning on suing or B) plan on suing the SEC himself. Markets hate uncertainty, which is probably the biggest reason why Ethereum has lagged. Whether it's due to a lawsuit, a denial based on arbitrary and capricious reasoning, or some new development, any resolution will bring some level of clarity. And for what it's worth, Standard Chartered still believes the Ethereum ETF will be approved this round.
Be Careful
ZKasino seemed poised for success with a $350 million valuation in its Series A round, $26 million raised from investors, backing from MEXC, and an audit by a reputable firm. Despite these promising beginnings, the founders chose to abruptly close operations and abscond with the funds. At launch, the bridged ETH from over 10,000 participants was essentially stolen. Promises to return these funds were hollow, as they were converted into ZKasino's native token, ZKAS, which now has a 15-month vesting period and will not be listed on MEXC anymore. Furthermore, the $33 million in ETH was moved to LIDO and is unlikely to be recovered. This incident is a harsh reminder of the inherent risks in the crypto world. Although ZKasino flew under the radar for many, there were signs of potential issues. Always exercise extreme caution when dealing with smaller, less established projects.
Here’s Why You NEED To Buy Bitcoin Before Countries Start Fighting For It | Ryan Condron
If you're curious about whether Bitcoin is decentralized, I have some bad news for you. It is not, especially when it comes to Bitcoin mining, which is controlled by a few large miners. Ryan Condron, CEO of Titan and Lumerin, is a pioneer in cryptocurrency and has been advocating for Bitcoin's decentralization and anonymity since 2012. In this episode, you will learn about the concept of decentralization, the potential for major conflicts over Bitcoin initiated by world governments, and why Ryan is so bullish on Bitcoin.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Phemex - Exclusive for new user, earn up to 8800 USDT. Also for a limited time, if you mint your soul pass you will pay no gas fees and enjoy VIP benefits. Use MY LINK to get the rewards!
Trading Alpha - My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use my link to sign up and get 25% off. Make sure to use code “25OFF”
NGRAVE - ZERO is the most secure and user-friendly hardware wallet. If you aren't happy with your current crypto wallet, look no further than the ZERO.
Nord VPN - Get an exclusive NordVPN deal - 40% discount! It’s risk-free with Nord’s 30-day money-back guarantee. Protect your privacy.
Twitter - I spend most of my time on Twitter, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
TheWolfOfAllStreets.io - The most comprehensive collection of everything I have going on. Plus over 100 blogs and other exclusive content.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
A lot happening as usual. Thanks for the easy-to-digest way of giving us the information.
It feels good that we have MicroStrategy educating the biggest companies in the world about the benefits of Bitcoin. As you write, this will take time. Nobody wants to be the person, in a big company, that makes the wrong decision. Also, imagine the number of approvals, from people who are not into BTC, that are needed for a big corporation like Google to invest. This will take time.
Scott. I like almost everything about you except your seriously lame clickbait headlines on most of your videos but posts. Please stop.