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In This Issue:
Never Sell Your Bitcoin?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
I Joined Sniper Trading School!
TD Bank Goes Mainstream
Tether Is Preparing For A Huge Announcement
The Market Crashed, It Was Probably Overdue
If You Own Crypto, Here Is How You Should Store It | Jameson Lopp, Casa
Never Sell Your Bitcoin?
Bitcoin has been heralded as a revolutionary asset - a digital safeguard against economic instability and a beacon of financial autonomy. A narrative deeply rooted within the Bitcoin community often paints this digital currency as a permanent hold, an asset that one should never part with, come hell or high water. This perspective, championed by Bitcoin maximalists, reeks of a religious fervor with the core tenet of the cult being simple - never sell.
Ever.
While the conviction of Bitcoin maximalists is admirable and has gone far to help Bitcoin succeed, it’s important to recognize that their ethos may not align with the financial realities of every individual. The truth is, Bitcoin must serve the individual needs of its holders, which can be as diverse as the people who purchase it.
For some, Bitcoin is a long-term store of value - an asset to be held as protection against inflation or currency devaluation. It is hard money, and the denominator of their financial lives. Yet for others, particularly those who might not have substantial financial wealth, Bitcoin represents a more immediate financial utility. It is a dynamic asset and an investment, one that can provide significant returns that might be needed sooner rather than later.
The reality for many, especially those from economically vulnerable backgrounds, is that holding onto Bitcoin indefinitely isn’t just impractical - it’s impossible. Financial emergencies, life milestones, or even the simple need to cash out a profitable investment dictate that selling Bitcoin can sometimes be the most sensible action.
Many never have the luxury of being able to buy it at all. Most of the world has no ability to save.
Moreover, there’s an irony that needs addressing in the Bitcoin community: the staunch ideology of never selling Bitcoin - promoted by maximalists - mirrors the rigidity often criticized in traditional financial elites. This absolutist view not only contradicts the principles of financial freedom and personal choice, which are cornerstones of the cryptocurrency movement, but also risks creating an echo chamber that stifles healthy discourse and practical financial strategies. By pushing a singular narrative, Bitcoin maximalists could inadvertently align themselves with the very financial gatekeepers and orthodoxies they originally sought to disrupt.
They are becoming the wealthy elites, preaching their ideology to the masses, blind to the realities of the average person.
Do know recall how Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger sound to Bitcoiners? That is how Bitcoiners are beginning to sound to everyone else in crypto.
What’s worse? Anyone who doesn’t ascribe to their philosophy is kicked out of the club. In their eyes, if you ever sell Bitcoin, you do not get to be a Bitcoiner.
So much for individual freedom.
This brings us to the most important point of contention within the Bitcoin community: the clash between purists who view selling Bitcoin as blasphemy, and pragmatists who advocate for a more flexible approach to crypto investments. It's crucial to highlight stories of individuals who have navigated their financial paths successfully by selling Bitcoin when it best suited their personal and financial circumstances.
There are plenty of people who have meaningfully improved or completely changed their lives by selling Bitcoin at opportune or necessary times.
Isn’t that the point of Bitcoin? To better your life?
As advocates of Bitcoin, we must champion the principle of personal agency in financial decisions. Our approach to Bitcoin should not be constrained by a rigid ideology, but should be adaptable to individual goals and life contexts. Every investor has unique financial needs and responsibilities that require different strategies.
Let’s encourage a balanced view of Bitcoin - one that respects its potential as a long-term store of value while also recognizing the legitimate reasons and rights of individuals to sell their holdings when necessary. This perspective not only makes Bitcoin more accessible, but also honors the very essence of autonomy and freedom that many of us value.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Trading Alpha gave continual top signals (orange Ts) with orange squeeze shading, perfectly predicting that the local top for Bitcoin was in.
As you know, I have been highly skeptical of price continuing up for a variety of reason - toppy charts, overbought RSI across the board on multiple coins with bearish divergences, memecoin madness, extreme greed etc. This was a month ago, and people seemingly thought I was insane because of my lack of euphoria.
At the end of the day though - this is just sideways chop in a range, and the bottom of the range is always scary.
I continue to believe that a lot of sideways is the most likely path as we approach the halving and see it pass like a nothing burger in the rearview mirror. I can always be wrong.
It is very important to note - RSI still has not come CLOSE to oversold on the Bitcoin daily chart, while it has on some altcoins. It will eventually get there - it always does. But that can take a long time and can happen with sideways chop as well.
Legacy Markets
Global financial markets exhibited a calm demeanor as traders speculated that diplomatic initiatives might prevent the conflict between Iran and Israel from escalating further. Oil prices declined slightly, reflecting a market sentiment that the situation might be kept under control, with Brent crude falling below $90 a barrel. In response to the weekend's military activities, where Iran targeted Israel with missiles and drones, major stock indexes in the U.S. and Europe indicated potential recoveries after a recent selloff in the S&P 500.
The calm in the markets was further evidenced by the easing of the dollar and a dip in U.S. Treasuries, which are typically seen as safe havens during geopolitical unrest. Conversely, gold, another safe haven asset, saw its price rise to $2,347 an ounce, indicating that some investors are still hedging against potential risks.
Investor sentiment was bolstered by statements from the Iranian mission to the United Nations suggesting that the conflict could be considered resolved for now. This was coupled with international calls for restraint, which helped soothe market nerves.
However, the ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose a risk to global markets, primarily through their potential impact on oil prices and inflation. Energy prices have been particularly sensitive to Middle Eastern dynamics, which could exacerbate already high global inflation rates if the situation worsens.
Despite these concerns, the market’s reaction has been relatively measured so far, with indicators such as Europe’s version of the VIX Index showing a significant drop, suggesting reduced anxiety among traders.
Looking ahead, the focus remains on the corporate earnings season, with major companies like Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab scheduled to report. Market analysts are closely monitoring these releases to gauge the potential for sustained stock market gains, particularly as current valuations hover near all-time highs amidst challenging economic and geopolitical backdrops.
Key events this week:
Eurozone industrial production, Monday
US retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, Monday
Federal income taxes due in the US, Monday
IMF and World Bank spring meetings start in Washington, Monday. The main ministerial meetings will be held April 17-19
Canada CPI, Tuesday
China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, GDP, Tuesday
UK jobless claims, unemployment, Tuesday
New Zealand home sales, CPI, Wednesday
Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
UK CPI, Wednesday
Australia unemployment, Thursday
Japan CPI, Friday
India’s elections begin, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 10:33 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.8%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0658
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 153.87 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.2% to 7.2556 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.2486
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 4.5% to $66,717.4
Ether rose 6% to $3,252.61
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.55%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.40%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.19%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 1.2% to $89.35 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,347.96 an ounce
I Joined Sniper Trading School!
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TD Bank Goes Mainstream
TD Direct Investing, a subsidiary of TD Bank, recently published a video on its YouTube channel that offers a straightforward explanation of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event for the mainstream. The video delves into the supply and demand dynamics of the halving, as well as the historical price movements of Bitcoin during previous halving events. TD has not made significant waves in the spot Bitcoin ETF arena, as it has not acted as an Authorized Participant or issuer. However, the company has found its niche in education. Aside from this video's viral success, TD has consistently produced educational content tailored for the mainstream, promoting access to crypto ETFs through its own TD Direct Investing, see below.
Tether Is Preparing For A Huge Announcement
Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, hinted on X about the company preparing to launch a tokenization platform, which he referred to as a "masterpiece." As of now, very little is known about what's coming, except for a couple of tweets below. I won’t bother speculating, so I shared what is known for now. It's truly amazing to witness the development of tokenization as a substantive narrative—the convergence of traditional finance and crypto is well underway and poised to be epic.
The Market Crashed, It Was Probably Overdue
It may have seemed unimaginable that a pullback could occur, given the multitude of narratives propelling us forward. However, as I have been saying, memecoin mania never lasts, and a black swan threat of war is the perfect opportunity for larger players to capitalize on profits. There is nothing inherently harmful a war should do to cryptocurrencies that provide real world value. Bitcoin remains impervious to outside forces—it can only be accelerated or decelerated to varying degrees. Our recent top signals and greed inevitably lead to a correction - the excess was always going to get flushed out one way or another. This is a classic example of investors acting on fear; dip buyers should consider taking advantage of this.
If You Own Crypto, Here Is How You Should Store It | Jameson Lopp, Casa
Jameson Lopp is the co-founder and CTO of Casa. As a cypherpunk, he is passionate about building tools to empower individual sovereignty and has been building Bitcoin wallets since 2015. In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets podcast Jameson tells how to securely store your Bitcoin in such a way that if someone wants to steal it from you, they won't be able to do it even if they destroy the entire continent (I hope it never happens!).
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Well said Scott. Although I've never sold any BTC, only accumulated, I will always avoid religious dogma style Maxi-consciousness and maintain my self sovereign choice.
Never SELL Bitcoin. The price will continue to go up because of its scarcity. Rather, if you need some cash, BORROW against it, but NEVER, EVER sell it.