The Wolf Den #931 - Oh, How Times Have Changed
For Coinbase...
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
This Newsletter Is Sponsored By DevvE!
DevvE represents the embodiment of all of the promises made by blockchain technology over the past 10 years. Unlike other Layer 1 cryptocurrencies DevvE is truly capable of delivering business enablement and value creation at scale and in ways that make sense for any business. Our infrastructure is market leading, uniquely suited to widespread adoption and directly addresses compliance and cost.
To put this in perspective DevvE is not only capable but fully intends to be the world’s token for creating, owning, and transferring value. DevvE will be a payment mechanism for buying and selling assets, an exchange mechanism for exchanging assets, and a verification mechanism for creating assets.
Be sure to check if DevvE is compliant in your jurisdiction and as always, this is not financial advice.
In This Issue:
Oh, How Times Have Changed
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Why We Need Bitcoin
Nilam Resources May Be Buying Bitcoin?
Binance Vs. SEC Update
The London Stock Exchange Joins The Party
Updates On The Bitcoin ETF
Get Ready For The Massive Bitcoin Rally | Global Easing Cycle | Macro Monday
Oh, How Times Have Changed
Coinbase has undergone a significant transformation, evolving from simply being a user-friendly platform for beginners to being a robust ecosystem for all things crypto. Initially, it was recognized solely for allowing users to purchase, sell, and hold cryptocurrencies. Veterans from the 2017 crypto scene might recall an industry insider tip: owning a Coinbase account automatically granted access to GDAX, a more advanced exchange platform with lower fees, despite its peculiar name. Furthermore, long-time enthusiasts may remember that even before GDAX, there was "Coinbase Exchange," which underwent a rebranding to become GDAX in May 2016. This journey underlines the dynamic evolution of Coinbase, illustrating a marked departure from its simpler beginnings. To stir up some nostalgia, let's not forget the days when Ethereum traded at $458.Navigating Coinbase today reveals a platform that has significantly expanded its offerings, evolving beyond its initial 'beginner-friendly' label. Here's a snapshot of Coinbase's diverse services:
**For Individuals:** Beyond the core Coinbase experience, users now have access to Wallet, Coinbase One, NFTs, Advanced Trade, Earn, Learning Rewards, Card, Borrow, Direct Deposit, Private Client services, USD Coin, Pro features, Derivatives, and Cloud Staking.
**For Business:** Coinbase caters to the business and institutional sector with Institutional services, Prime, Commerce, Exchange, International Exchange, Data Marketplace, Asset Hub, Ventures, Travel Rule compliance, and Cloud Staking solutions.
**For Developers:** Developers are supported with Cloud services, Cloud Staking, Wallet as a Service, Wallet SDK, Coinbase Pay SDK, Commerce API, Exchange API, Sign in with Coinbase, Rosetta, Prime APIs, and Base Node tools.
This array highlights Coinbase's transformation into an 'everyone platform' that remains accessible to beginners while offering developers essential tools and providing businesses and institutions with the infrastructure needed to deal with regulatory challenges.
Shifting focus to some of the platform's under-the-radar features that are available for free today, let's delve into Vaults, one of Coinbase's lesser-known but valuable offerings.
Coinbase Vaults represent a more secure method for storing cryptocurrency online, distinguishing themselves from standard storage on the main assets page. These vaults implement withdrawal waiting periods, mandate dual email confirmations for withdrawals, and provide options for group management. Importantly, not even Coinbase support can override the waiting period for withdrawals, enhancing their suitability for online crypto storage.
Next in line to explore is Coinbase Futures.
Coinbase Futures, while already gaining attention, has been operational for just half a year. Starting from April 1, it will broaden its scope to include Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash. Moreover, it introduces nano-sized contracts, which are designed to lower the entry barrier by requiring less capital, thus making futures trading more accessible to a wider audience.
Shifting gears to a distinct aspect of Coinbase's initiatives, we encounter the "Stand with Crypto" mission..
The "Stand with Crypto" mission serves as a platform encouraging individuals to engage in pro-crypto political actions. This initiative ranges from straightforward activities such as minting a complimentary Coinbase shield or watching a video by Brian Armstrong, to more committed actions like using the "Legislative Action Portal," contributing donations, or delving into policies impacting the crypto industry.
Concluding our exploration of Coinbase's expanded services, let's discuss staking.
If you're holding assets on Coinbase with no immediate plans to sell, staking them is a no-brainer. Coinbase simplifies staking, offering what is likely one of the most straightforward and reliable methods available. The platform supports a variety of tokens for staking, including Aptos, Avalanche, Axelar, Cardano, Celestia, Cosmos, dYdX, Ethereum, Flow, NEAR, Osmosis, Polkadot, Polygon, Solana, and Sui. Beyond traditional staking, Coinbase also provides access to liquid staking tokens, catering to those who wish to maintain liquidity.
This wraps up our exploration of the new and underappreciated features on Coinbase that are worth taking advantage of today. There’s also Base, poised to capture significant attention, especially if another meme-driven market surge occurs. The intricacies of Base deserve a dedicated discussion, so I'll touch on that another time. Not to overlook the evolving story of Wall Street's engagement with Coinbase and the unseen developments occurring behind the scenes.
Over the last decade, Coinbase has experienced profound growth and transformation. Looking ahead, it's clear the platform will continue to evolve, promising an exciting future for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. We're witnessing an incredible era for crypto, and Coinbase's trajectory suggests even more thrilling developments are on the horizon. Here's to the next chapter – Coinbase to the moon!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Let's hope that the weekly chart closes here or higher on Sunday!
We want to see the reversal candle from last week confirmed, and a weekly close above $69,000, the previous all time high.
Pretty straightforward - yesterday was a big move, now we need to see it sustained.
I am liking what I am seeing so far.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
I took a look at this chart on my chartapalooza stream yesterday afternoon, and it was by far the most striking setup that I saw.
The weekly chart shows an incredible test and hold of support at .06293. As you can see, this was a major swing high at the beginning of 2023, which was never recaptured until a few weeks ago.
What strikes me is the huge increase on volume and the candle spread on the breakout a few weeks ago, and then the incredible hold of support for the next two candles. As you can see, a blue candle closed right on support, then we had a perfect dragonfly doji wick low below support but close EXACTLY at the same price where it opened a week before. This is a major reversal signal. This week’s candle has started right at support and is heading up.
The target for me is the next level around .153, if not higher. More than 2x from here.
Zooming into the 4-hour chart, we can also see that we have a clear break of descending resistance and a nice move up. This looks solid on all time frames.
*I do not own this token.
Legacy Markets
Stock markets displayed minimal movements as investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming US data that could indicate whether the recent market rally has been overextended. European stocks were stable, while US futures saw a slight increase following a dip in the S&P 500 Index. Treasury bonds were unchanged, and the dollar weakened against most major currencies. In Asia, equities experienced mixed results, with gains in Hong Kong and Japan but declines in Australia and Taiwan.
The market's attention is increasingly focused on earnings as the second quarter approaches, amid concerns about the sustainability of share prices without corresponding earnings growth. Key upcoming data includes US durable goods and consumer confidence, with the Fed's inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, due on a holiday-affected Friday.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have cautioned against high stock valuations in the absence of earnings acceleration. Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 10% this year, buoyed by positive US economic indicators, anticipations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and enthusiasm about artificial intelligence.
In company news, Smiths Group saw a share price increase after its CEO's departure and maintained sales forecasts. BNP Paribas was upgraded by Goldman Sachs, boosting its shares. Meanwhile, shares of Donald Trump’s social media venture jumped 20% following a merger completion.
Globally, concerns persist over inflation and monetary policy. Japan's Finance Minister indicated readiness to counter excessive currency movements, with market watchers eyeing potential intervention levels for the yen. The offshore yuan strengthened after the People's Bank of China expressed support for the currency.
Commodity markets saw oil prices stabilize after a significant increase, amidst ongoing production cuts by OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions. Gold prices hovered near record highs, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty and investor caution.
Key events this week:
ECB chief economist Philip Lane participates in event in Dublin, Tuesday
US durable goods, Conference Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
China industrial profits, Wednesday
Bank of England issues financial policy committee minutes, Wednesday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Wednesday
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
UK GDP revision, Thursday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
US personal income and spending, PCE deflator, Friday
Good Friday. Exchanges closed in US and many other countries in observance of holiday. US federal government is open.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 5:23 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World index was little changed
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0851
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2655
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 151.25 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2465 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $71,012.01
Ether rose 0.9% to $3,660.73
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.23%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.35%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.95%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,183.72 an ounce
Why We Need Bitcoin
I like this video because it illustrates how challenging it is for humans, myself included, to intuitively grasp large numbers. The piles of cash, each containing stacks of $100 bills, becomes increasingly unfathomable, especially when representing larger numbers i.e. $100 billion and $1 trillion.
For example, when I asked ChatGPT how tall a stack of $100 bills totaling $1 trillion would be and it estimated the thickness of a dollar bill at 0.0043 inches, the answer was astounding: approximately 678.23 miles tall. To put this into perspective, if laid sideways, this tower would span the distance from Chicago to New York.
Now, consider the U.S. debt, which stands at $34 trillion! Multiplying 34 by 678 gives us 23,052, just 2,000 miles short of the Earth's circumference. That's right, a stack of $100 bills equivalent to the U.S. debt is almost enough to wrap around the Earth. We are doomed and need Bitcoin for many reasons.
Nilam Resources May Be Buying Bitcoin?
Please note that there are some strong reasons suggesting that this news could be fake. Nonetheless, I will report on it, and we will have to wait and see if it turns out to be true. Nilam Resources, Inc., a precious metal mining company with assets in Peru, has announced that it is entering into a Letter of Intent with Xyberdata Ltd. to acquire 24,800 Bitcoin. The agreement involves acquiring 100% of the common stock of a special purpose entity named MindWave, to be established in Mauritius, which will hold the BTC along with other assets.
Some of the questionable aspects of the story include the company being a small-cap OTC stock, announcing the acquisition ahead of time, which is beneficial for PR but could be detrimental for acquiring BTC at a cheap price, and the fact that a letter of intent isn't normal for these kinds of deals or plans. It's quite humorous that Bitcoin Magazine and other credible outlets are reporting such a story without any caution or hesitation. While it could turn out to be true, there's an obvious chance that it doesn't.
Binance Vs. SEC Update
It's intriguing that Binance and Coinbase remain entangled in a significant legal tussle with the SEC, a situation that surprisingly hasn't captivated as much media attention as one might expect given its potential impact. Perhaps the spotlight has shifted more towards BlackRock and Wall Street's dynamics. When the lawsuits against both exchanges were first filed, Bitcoin's price hovered around $30,000, maintaining this level for the subsequent three months.
Binance is nearing the completion of the lawsuit's discovery phase, paving the way for the trial stage, which will eventually culminate in a verdict. For Coinbase, the progression of Binance's trial offers a silver lining, as it will provide their investors and legal team with valuable insights into what might lie ahead in their own case. While the specifics of the cases differ, with Coinbase facing potentially less scrutiny in court, a favorable outcome for Binance could spell good news for Coinbase as well.
With the discovery phase anticipated to wrap up by April, the ensuing trial could span weeks or months, marking a critical period for both exchanges and the broader cryptocurrency landscape
The London Stock Exchange Joins The Party
Starting in the second quarter of this year, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) has announced that it will accept applications for the admission of Bitcoin and Ethereum crypto exchange-traded notes (ETNs). ETNs are similar to ETFs but differ in their structure and how they track their underlying assets. When you buy an ETN, you are essentially buying a debt security issued by a financial institution. The value of the ETN is linked to the performance of a specific index or asset, such as a commodity, currency, or group of securities. At maturity, the issuer of the ETN pays the investor an amount equal to the performance of the underlying index, minus fees. For important dates to remember, issuers planning to list a crypto ETN program on May 28, 2024, will be required to submit their applications no later than April 15, 2024.
Updates On The Bitcoin ETFs
The image above is my favorite visualization of Bitcoin ETFs because it shows all the funds stacked against each other, with Grayscale's position diminishing while IBIT and FBTC are rapidly growing. Consider what might happen to Bitcoin when Grayscale reaches the bottom of the outflow barrel and there are only inflows left each day. We may not realize how strong the outflows are until they cease, and Bitcoin fires up based on inflows alone. Just a thought.
I've compiled a list of facts about the Bitcoin ETF from the Forbes article below. It's remarkable what the ETFs have accomplished. Before I share the facts, I think it’s pretty important to point out that Grayscale held 619K BTC on ETF launch, which has now been reduced to almost half at 347K.
BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds have outperformed 3,122 other funds this year by recording net inflows for 49 days straight.
There are only 30 ETFs that have ever recorded a longer steak than BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) or Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) this year.
The longest streak is JP Morgan’s JEPIJEPI -0.1% at 160 days, which IBIT and FBTC could cross in mid-June if it retains its current performance.
IBIT now accounts for over half of BlackRock's net flows YTD and has taken in double any of their other 420 ETFs.
Fidelity has also seen 70% of its total inflows come from FBTC which has had 5x more than any other of their ETFs.
Grayscale has continued to see persistent outflows totaling $13.8 billion since January 11, yet the nine ‘newborn’ spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded a combined $25 billion inflows.
Only IBIT and FBTC have had inflows every day since launch.
Get Ready For The Massive Bitcoin Rally | Global Easing Cycle | Macro Monday
Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto!
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Phemex - Exclusive for new user, earn up to 8800 USDT. Also for a limited time, if you mint your soul pass you will pay no gas fees and enjoy VIP benefits. Use MY LINK to get the rewards!
Trading Alpha - My new go-to indicator site and trading community. Use my link to sign up and get 25% off. Make sure to use code “25OFF”
NGRAVE - ZERO is the most secure and user-friendly hardware wallet. If you aren't happy with your current crypto wallet, look no further than the ZERO.
Nord VPN - Get an exclusive NordVPN deal - 40% discount! It’s risk-free with Nord’s 30-day money-back guarantee. Protect your privacy.
Twitter - I spend most of my time on Twitter, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.
YouTube - Home of the Wolf Of All Streets Podcast and daily livestreams. Market updates, charts, and analysis! Sit down, strap in, and get ready—we’re going deep
TheWolfOfAllStreets.io - The most comprehensive collection of everything I have going on. Plus over 100 blogs and other exclusive content.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.