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In This Issue:
Portfolio or Plan?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Vivek Is Rubbing Off on Trump
Ethereum Staking Continues to Grow
Digital Gold Passes Physical Silver
Bitcoin Will Skyrocket, Everything Else Will Go To Zero | Max Keiser & Stacy Herbert
Portfolio or Plan?
I have a task for you.
Open up your brokerage account, cold wallet, exchange (or all three) and ask yourself the following question:
What am I looking at; do I have a portfolio or a plan?
If you aren’t 100% sure, let me break it down.
If you see a collection of investments, assets, and securities with random allocations and risk profiles, you are looking at a portfolio.
On the other hand, if you see an outlined or strategic roadmap detailing your financial goals, risk tolerance, and a systematic approach to achieving them, then you have a plan.
If you fall into category one, don’t fret; having any investments to your name is better than none, even if they are strung together without rhyme or reason. There are plenty of investors whose portfolios look like a plate full of reheated leftovers, frozen foods, and peanut butter, and sometimes that works. But let’s make it clear that this should be the exception, not the rule.
If you fall into category two, then mission accomplished. Use this newsletter to keep you on track and tie up loose ends that need rearrangement. Category two looks different for everyone, but the essence of it is rebalancing, retirement planning, time horizon(s), diversification, tax efficiency, an emergency fund, and goal-based investing.
Not every portfolio requires meticulous planning, and not every plan necessitates a perfect portfolio. Different strategies work for different investors; however, as a general guideline, a portfolio should ideally be accompanied by a well-considered plan. Without a plan, managing your investments can become challenging and lead to potential issues.
In the crypto space, there is a singular major concern that can quickly escalate without a treatment plan - position sizing. How often have you meticulously planned to own designated sizes in assets x, y, and z, only to witness asset Z skyrocket (or crash), overshadowing assets x and y, which now seem insignificant in comparison to the outsized Z? While this may not be inherently problematic if left unchecked, it opens the door to potential issues down the road.
Chances are, if asset Z experienced a dramatic rise, your genuine conviction in that asset may not have risen proportionally. Without a well-defined plan in place, your portfolio is now susceptible to the market's whims, and your biases remain unchecked. While this situation might be acceptable, the hypothetical investor has inadvertently exposed themselves to the risks of volatile swings, which may not align with their original intentions or goals.
Practically every crypto investor is aware of these principles, yet they often overlook them due to the absence of a comprehensive plan.
Now that you know what steps to take, if you haven't already opened your portfolio, take the initiative to do so and formulate a plan now. Planning for crypto investments may be challenging, but the potential rewards are among the most substantial in any asset class. Seize this opportunity to transform your portfolio into a well-thought-out plan.
Wishing you a fantastic weekend; once the Grayscale selling capitulates and the market takes a breath, I anticipate a swift turnaround for Bitcoin and the rest of the market. All is well, Wolf out.
IMPORTANT NOTE - If you have not noticed, I have been giving away $100 on EVERY YouTube stream, just for good will and karma. If you watch my daily streams, we do it at the end to someone with a great comment! Join today for a chance to win.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
No surprises here, right?
As you know, my bias recently changed, looking for these small drops in Bitcoin. On the daily chart, we saw BTC lose the 50 MA as support for the first time in nearly 3 months and since price was $26,000. We have now seen that blue line tested multiple times as resistance.
RSI is still middling on the daily, so I would anticipate that we eventually get to oversold - we always do. That could happen without price dropping much further, but should eventually indicate more downside.
That said, I am still seeing MIXED SIGNALS and little clarity, which means this market is avoidable for now.
We have small wicks down on yesterday's candle and today. They are not to the same low, but many would define this as a potential tweezer bottom, meaning that the low could be in. Possible.
Most importantly - we need to see people stop selling their GBTC, which is the fundamental overhang. At 500-800M a day, this is serious forced selling pressure. When someone sells a share of GBTC, Grayscale has to sell BTC to balance the AUM.
Want to really be confused?
My favorite bullish signal just confirmed again - oversold bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart. Didn't I just write an entire post about the daily being bearish? Yes. Didn't I mention mixed signals? Yes.
The truth is, a lower time frame signal can cause a nice bounce to the upside, before the larger time frame takes back over. Dicey situation.
I would normal trade this aggressively, but I still remain sidelined, especially with the GBTC overhang. I love the signal, I hate the market situation right now.
But yes, I think we go up a bit even if we are heading back down.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Just a quick reminder that, even as the market, correct, Ethereum continues to slowly rise against Bitcon.
I have high conviction that this is going to be the next solid trade and narrative and that Ethereum will rise.
Legacy Markets
European stocks concluded a volatile week on a positive note, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rising after a dip fueled by reduced expectations for early interest rate cuts. The index was bolstered by the food and beverage sector, while tech stocks also saw gains, notably driven by a positive outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), signaling a potential global rebound in chip sales. BASF SE and software maker Temenos AG were among the notable risers.
In the U.S., equity futures, particularly in the tech sector, showed an uptick, paralleling gains in Asian markets, primarily propelled by semiconductor stocks. TSMC, a key supplier to Apple and Nvidia, expects robust growth, with expansion plans in Japan, Arizona, and Germany, riding on the artificial intelligence development boom.
While traders are closely monitoring Federal Reserve statements for clues on rate cut timings, the sentiment has shifted, with the likelihood of a March rate cut now seen as uncertain. The week's volatility is viewed as a precursor to a year potentially full of unpredictability, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a busy election calendar.
Fed officials advocate for a cautious approach due to unpredictable global events. In contrast, BlackRock International anticipates rate cuts starting in June, expecting a total reduction of 75 to 100 basis points by the end of the year.
US equity outlook remains focused on growth and tech stocks, with the Nasdaq 100's top performers from the previous year continuing to attract investors. The optimism is partly driven by expectations of rate cuts, a resilient economy, and excitement over AI advancements.
In the commodities market, oil prices remained stable after reaching a three-week high amid escalating Middle East tensions, while gold faced a weekly decline due to the readjustment of expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Key events this week:
Canada retail sales, Friday
US existing home sales, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
ECB President Christine Lagarde and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speak in Davos, Friday
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 9:22 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.7%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
The euro was little changed at $1.0878
The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.03 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1968 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2685
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $41,296.39
Ether rose 0.9% to $2,476.25
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.14%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.33%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.90%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.3% to $79.35 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,029.77 an ounce
Vivek Is Rubbing Off on Trump
Maybe it's not by chance that pro-crypto candidate Vivek exits the race, aligns with Trump, and we subsequently witness Trump's shift towards an anti-CBDC position. The true motives remain uncertain. Nonetheless, the outlook is positive, indicating that if Trump assumes the presidency, a CBDC won't materialize, and the crypto issue is increasingly gaining prominence in the political landscape.
“As your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency. Such a currency would give a federal government, absolute control over your money. They could take your money, and you wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom, and I will stop it from coming to America.”
To be clear, I do not support Trump or Biden and attempt to stay out of politics entirely. I merely report political news as it is relevant.
Ethereum Staking Continues to Grow
Remember the concerns in Q1 last year about the Ethereum Shapella upgrade triggering a mass exodus of investors and a subsequent plunge in the staking ratio? Whether it was Bitcoin maxis or competing layer one investors pushing that narrative doesn't matter. Currently, 24% of the ETH supply is staked, with only 11% on centralized exchanges. Imagine what unfolds as the bull market matures, ETH staking nears 30%, and the supply on centralized exchanges drops below 10% and continues to decrease. ETH has only experienced a blip in positive sentiment change this past week, we have only scratched the surface.
Digital Gold Passes Physical Silver
Jim Cramer mentions that nobody showed up to the Bitcoin ETF, but despite the critics' skepticism, spot Bitcoin ETFs have outpaced silver ETFs in the U.S. in terms of AUM. While gold currently holds the top position in commodity ETFs with a comfortable lead at $95 billion, silver quickly lost its place due to Grayscale's conversion and strong initial interest. It wouldn't surprise me if Bitcoin surpasses gold later this year. While I can't make definitive predictions, such a development would not be shocking.
Bitcoin Will Skyrocket, Everything Else Will Go To Zero | Max Keiser & Stacy Herbert
Join Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert as we discuss the future of Bitcoin. Dan from the Chart Guys will provide his market outlook.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.