The Wolf Den #878 - Crypto's Most Elite Club
Wholecoiners
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In This Issue:
Crypto’s Most Elite Club
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
The Advantage To Bitcoin ETFs
Polymarket Says ‘Yes” To The ETF
Celsius To End ETH Sales
Bitcoin ETF Will Spark Massive Gains | Crypto Will Change Forever
Crypto’s Most Elite Club
There's an elite club in the crypto community that only the most distinguished and exclusive members have access to—the Wholecoiners. These are the individuals who have transcended the realm of mere fractions and proudly own more than one Bitcoin. With a capped supply of only 21 million Bitcoins that can ever exist, the Wholecoiners club carries a significance that surpasses the traditional millionaire's club.
I’m joking.
The notion of Wholecoiners being 'elite' is, quite frankly, a bit absurd. It hinges on the idea that one's status in the crypto community is determined by the quantity of Bitcoin they possess. In reality, anyone making an effort to acquire any amount of Bitcoin and embracing the decentralization movement, while rejecting the traditional power of fiat currency, deserves respect.
Did you know that owning just .01 Bitcoin places an address in the top 25% of addresses?
Now that my rant is finished, let's shift our focus from the abstract concept of exclusivity to the concrete reality of Wholecoiners in the crypto landscape. It's intriguing to ponder just how many individuals have managed to attain the status of owning an entire Bitcoin. Let's explore the numbers and shed light on the population of Wholecoiners, a group that plays a unique role in shaping the dynamics of the crypto community.
For this analysis, I am going to use the Bitcoin Rich List tool to make some assumptions. Here is what it currently looks like.
Before we dive into the quest of determining how many Wholecoiners exist, it's crucial to acknowledge the inherent complexity of this endeavor. Pinning down an exact number is an impossible task. Tools like the Bitcoin Rich List measure addresses, not individuals, creating a nuanced landscape. While some investors may consolidate their holdings under one address, others might spread them across multiple addresses, adding a layer of intricacy to our analysis.
Consider this: an investor could have three Bitcoin addresses one year, five the next, and two the following year. Factor in the dynamics of gaining and losing Bitcoin over time, and our attempt to gauge the population of wholecoiners becomes a challenging exercise, muddied by the evolving nature of individual investment strategies and behaviors.
If we assumed every Bitcoin investor had one address, then there would be 1,021,765 people who own more than 1 Bitcoin, which is 1.94% of addresses or ‘people’ in this circumstance.
It ain’t that easy
Moreover, delving into the categories above and below the 1 Bitcoin threshold on the Bitcoin Rich List reveals additional layers of complexity. The distinction between Wholecoiners and non-Wholecoiners isn't always clear-cut. It's not uncommon to find Wholecoiners nestled within the .01 to .1 category, while, conversely, an address in the 100 - 1,000 category may not necessarily represent a Wholecoiner.
Take, for instance, a scenario where an address holding somewhere between 100 to 1,000 Bitcoins belongs to a company. The contents of that wallet might be evenly split among multiple individuals, leaving each 'holder' with less than one whole coin. On the flip side, an address with a balance falling within the .01 to .1 category could very well belong to an individual who proudly holds Bitcoin in many addresses.
But the intricacies don't end there. Imagine, for a moment, owning a Bitcoin but losing access to your private keys. Suddenly, you find yourself in a peculiar situation — you possess a whole Bitcoin, yet without the means to access or transact with it. In this scenario, one could argue that you're no longer a Wholecoiner in practice.
This raises the crucial point of accounting for lost coins in our estimation. Current estimates suggest that around 30% of all Bitcoins have been irretrievably lost over time. The impact of lost coins introduces one more layer of complexity to our calculations.
Taking all factors into consideration, a conservative estimate might indicate that there are likely more than one million Wholecoiners. However, for those seeking a more precise figure, the reality is that the number falls within the very specific range of 0 to 21 million. See what I did there?
The total number of Wholecoiners will inevitably fluctuate over time, influenced by the dynamic movements of larger players entering and exiting the space. Therefore, perhaps what truly matters isn't the precise count of Wholecoiners but our collective ability to hold onto the Satoshis we have, fostering a resilient and enduring crypto community that rejects the notion of fiat being the world’s best money.
As I consistently emphasize, take pride in what you own and embrace the knowledge you've acquired. In this moment, each one of us is inherently a pioneer, belonging to the most elite financial club in the world, regardless of the numerical amount we own.
Additionally, the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, be it this Wednesday, Friday, or in the upcoming Q2, marks a turning point for the world. Anticipate a wave of change and hold onto your sats tightly, as an army of untapped investors may soon seek them to own them at any means necessary.
Here's to an outstanding week ahead, filled with positivity and the anticipation of even greater news.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
There is nothing to do here until we see ETF news. This is nothing but chop, with a decent but meaningless weekly candle close. As you can see, price is still easily holding the $42,000 area support on weekly closes, so there's just little to talk about. ETF approval, big move, then what?
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
An update on last week’s chart. ETH has finally made a lower low on price vs. BTC on the weekly chart, something I have been watching for for over a month. This gives us potential bullish divergence coming out of oversold RSI on the weekly chart, a huge signal of future upside. Weekly divergence can take months to play out, and we can see the divergence remain valid even with much further upside. Further, it does not even become a divergence until we see a clear elbow up on RSI to give us the confirmed higher low.
This adds to my conviction that ETH will outperform in 2024. I am starting to nibble again.
I am interested in buying Solana in two places - around $75 and around $48. I have been saying this on YouTube for a while, and discussed that the $125 area was a clear short with Mike Alfred.
Will price actually get there? I have absolutely no idea. But those are key weekly areas that were blown through on the way up with absolutely no retest as support. It can take a long time, but these types of level "should" eventually be retested. Remember when Bitcoin was never going to test $20,000 support again after blowing through it?
Very good chance I never fill... but my stink bids will be waiting.
Legacy Markets
European and Asian stock markets started the week on a downward trend, echoing last week's global selloff. A notable development was the significant drop in Boeing Co.'s stock, which fell 7.9% in US premarket trading due to the grounding of more 737 Max 9 aircraft by several carriers. This decline is part of a broader pattern in global equity markets, which have experienced their most substantial drop since October. The hesitance around the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies contributes to the market's uncertainty.
The Stoxx 600, a key European benchmark, decreased by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index in Asia marked its lowest close since November 2022. Investors are currently navigating through a period of mixed economic signals, particularly from the US, and are awaiting the upcoming inflation report and earnings season for clearer market direction.
BNP Paribas analysts express caution, indicating a higher likelihood of disappointing full-year earnings, suggesting more downside risks ahead. According to a Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, the consensus among sell-side analysts is that S&P 500 earnings forecasts are overly optimistic, given the potential for an economic slowdown.
In Germany, November's factory orders rose less than expected, raising concerns about the health of Europe's largest economy. In the bond market, the yield on US Treasuries fell to 4.02%, with some traders seeing the recent pullback as an opportunity to capitalize on high yields before potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The Asian markets saw a notable decline, especially in the technology sector, contributing to a 2.3% fall in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index. Despite economic support measures, investor sentiment in China remains largely negative, as noted by Nomura Group analysts.
In the commodities realm, Brent crude experienced a downturn, losing more than 1% in value. This decrease reflects a global oversupply and a weaker overall economic outlook, overshadowed by concerns about Red Sea tensions and supply disruptions in Libya. The recent decision by Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices highlights the strength of global supply, including contributions from the US, further pressuring the market.
Key events this week:
Eurozone economic confidence, retail sales, consumer confidence, Monday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Monday
US House returns from recess, Monday
Australia retail sales, Tuesday
Japan Tokyo CPI, household spending, Tuesday
Eurozone unemployment, Tuesday
World Economic Forum’s global risks report released, Wednesday
US wholesale inventories, Wednesday
Deadline for US Securities & Exchange Commission to vote on Bitcoin ETF applications, Wednesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
China CPI, PPI, trade, Friday
France CPI, Friday
UK industrial production, Friday
US PPI, Friday
Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo report fourth-quarter results, Friday
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks, Friday
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% as of 10:04 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.6%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0936
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.30 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.1701 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2695
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $43,751.95
Ether fell 1.3% to $2,212.74
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.02%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.16%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.80%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 1.1% to $77.88 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,028.30 an ounce
The Advantage To Bitcoin ETFs
For my tech-savvy friends adept at self-custody, I consistently advocate for acquiring spot Bitcoin as opposed to alternatives like the ETF. However, there exists a hidden advantage to the ETF that Bitcoin doesn't provide - unit bias. Unit bias pertains to the psychological phenomenon where individuals find lower-priced units of an asset more appealing or affordable, despite the total value being the same. Purchasing .118 or .236 Bitcoin might not hold the same psychological appeal as acquiring 500 or 1,000 shares, even if the monetary value is equivalent. Moreover, some individuals may not realize that Bitcoin can be broken down into smaller units that are attainable, and the ETF's capability to facilitate the purchase of 50 shares at once can be a more straightforward and obvious option for them.
Polymarket Says ‘Yes” To The ETF
It's not just our crypto Twitter community that is foreseeing the likelihood of the ETF; the crypto prediction market Polymarket echoes this sentiment with $2.8 million in bets, where 82% of the funds favor a positive outcome. Shifting focus to other current crypto developments on Polymarket, speculators express less optimism about Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by March 31 (23% yes and 77% no). There's approximately a 50-50 chance that Bitcoin will reach $50,000 by Jan 31, a similar likelihood for ETH hitting $2,500 by the same date, and odds of about 9:1 that Solana won't experience downtime in January. I’m anticipating the possibility of 10x growth in prediction markets this year.
Celsius To End ETH Sales
One of the material inhibitors affecting Ethereum's recent growth can be attributed to the actions of the bankrupt lender Celsius, who persistently sold ETH staking rewards from their substantial reserve on the market. While I'm not entirely convinced that this had a major impact on price suppression, it likely influenced sentiment, potentially resulting in a more negative outlook. As per Arkham's analytics, Celsius had staked approximately $151 million worth of ETH, earning an annualized yield ranging from 4% to 5%. The now unstaked ETH is expected to gradually return to creditors in accordance with the approval plan.
Bitcoin ETF Will Spark Massive Gains | Crypto Will Change Forever
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
MELKER...your best article. Very inspiring. You never brag..just report truth..