The Wolf Den #877 - This Is Shocking
Financial Planning Is Dead
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In This Issue:
This Is Shocking
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Beware Of Deep Fakes
This Game Ends One Of Two Ways
The ETF Is NOT PRICED IN
The SEC Is Not All Bad
Bitcoin To SKYROCKET As Institutions Prepare For Bitcoin ETF
This Is Shocking
I came across this frightening statistic: “Among all Americans, the average amount of time spent on financial management per day is just 1.8 minutes, a number dragged down due to 97% of Americans spending no time on money management on any given day.”
In the same article by The Ascent, it states: “Just 0.2% of Americans aged 15 to 24 do some financial planning on a given day, compared to 5.8% of those 65 and older.”
And a few more quotes…
“Among the Americans that do engage in financial planning on an average day, they usually spend 54 minutes managing their money, according to data collected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
“Three percent of Americans engaged in financial planning on an average day in 2022, down from 3.7% in 2012 and 4.5% in 2003.”
“The percent of Americans doing financial planning on any given day has generally declined since the early 2000s, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”
Alarm bells rang in my head as I read the statistics. Could it be that their concept of financial planning was different from mine? But no, at the article's end, 'financial planning' was defined precisely as it should be:
Defining goals
Setting a budget
Saving for retirement
Making an estate plan
Managing debt
Preparing for emergencies
Planning for taxes
Investing for the long term
This seemed unbelievable. Surely, most Americans spend more time on these crucial activities, right? Contrary to what one might expect, the answer is no.
Delving deeper, I discovered that these findings were based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Below, you'll find a chart, particularly noting the blue-highlighted section at the bottom. This illustrates how three different groups spent their time on various activities in 2022.
The list of activities is quite extensive, but take a look at what I found on the bottom…
In 2022, the average time spent ‘Watching TV’ by an American was 2.79 hours, totaling 167.4 minutes, in contrast to 1.8 minutes dedicated to ‘Financial Management.’
Below is a visual representation of the ‘Leisure and Sports’ category.
Why is this information important to you, the readers of this newsletter? It's likely that you already exceed the average time spent on financial matters, even if you only engage with my content before moving on to other activities.
First, this data suggests that the average American likely has a limited grasp of financial management. It's possible that a small percentage only need 1.8 minutes a day because they're highly efficient, but realistically, this is probably not the norm.
Second, if the average reader of this newsletter spends 18 minutes daily on their finances, as opposed to the general average of 1.8 minutes, it doesn't necessarily mean we're 10 times more adept or that we should aim for 30 or 45 minutes. The key is not the quantity of time spent, but how effectively you manage your finances to free up time for other important life aspects - be it adequate sleep, family, travel, or involvement in community and spiritual activities.
For the overachievers among you, investing more time in your financial hobby could further deepen your enjoyment in this area. It's an interesting, self-reinforcing cycle.
Third, these statistics are relevant because almost all of us likely know someone who falls into the 1.8-minute category. This is why sharing this newsletter with them, or discussing strategies for financial improvement, can be so valuable. While talking about money with friends or family can be challenging, it can also lead to beneficial conversations. In my experience, friends who spend less time on financial matters often have insightful perspectives on happiness, health, and purpose, enriching my life in unexpected ways.
As we kick off 2024, the potential for an exceptional year is palpable. My aim is to maintain this positivity as long as possible. For newcomers, this newsletter typically focuses on the evolving world of crypto, but occasionally, like today, it diverges. I'm excited for the successes that await each of you. Have a fantastic weekend!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Not very exciting. The bull pennant that I shared, which failed, has become more of an ascending channel. Clearly we are chopping sideways until an ETF decision is made, so not much to see here.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
I have been sharing this idea for months, ever since Ethereum hit oversold on the Bitcoin pair for only the fourth time in history. Each of these incidents has marked a bottom.
This time we also have potential bullish divergence, which will require a weekly close below .052. Right now price is there. This would make a higher low on RSI and a lower low on price. Next we would need to see a clear elbow up on RSI to confirm, so this could take a few weeks yet to come to fruition.
Weekly divergences can take a VERY long time to play out. It does not mean this is the bottom, but it is a clear sign of bottoming and one that I will be buying aggressively with bullish Ethereum in mind for 2024.
Legacy Markets
Bonds and stocks are retreating as the market anticipates the upcoming U.S. jobs report. Treasuries have seen their biggest weekly decline since October, driven by speculation that a strong labor market might postpone interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The dollar has strengthened for six consecutive days.
The U.S. jobs report is expected to show a hiring slowdown, with 175,000 positions added last month, yet still indicating economic strength. This has led swaps traders to reduce their expectations of a Fed rate cut by March to about a 65% chance, down from nearly 100% a week ago.
This change in outlook is causing investors to reconsider some of last year's popular trades. The Nasdaq 100 Index futures dropped 0.3%, and the index itself has lost over 3% this week. The yield on 10-year notes has risen above 4%.
In Europe, money markets continue to bet on interest rate cuts, expecting a total of 145 basis points of easing by year-end. This comes after regional inflation data aligned with forecasts. However, European stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, are falling amid concerns of an anti-dumping investigation by China into EU products.
Analysts suggest that equity valuations, expecting a favorable macroeconomic scenario, may limit market growth, with the first half of 2024 potentially challenging for equity markets.
In commodities, oil prices have slightly increased, marking a weekly gain, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and North Africa overshadow signs of declining U.S. demand.
Key events this week:
Euro-zone CPI, PPI, Friday
US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9% as of 10:05 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0910
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 145.25 per dollar
The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 7.1659 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2658
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $44,106.19
Ether fell 0.5% to $2,263.69
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.03%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.16%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 3.79%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.9% to $78.30 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,037.98 an ounce
Beware Of Deep Fakes
I'm concerned that in 2024, one potential scam that could gain momentum is the use of deep fake videos to mislead cryptocurrency investors. A recent example of this was a deep fake video featuring Anatoly Yakovenko, the creator of Solana. In the video, he was inaccurately depicted offering a giveaway via a QR code, a ruse that could lead unsuspecting viewers into a fraudulent scheme that drains their wallets. While seasoned crypto enthusiasts might easily recognize this scam, it poses a real risk to newcomers who are not as well-versed in the nuances of cryptocurrency. Furthermore, I expect these deceitful tactics to become more sophisticated and realistic over time. The situation will likely persist until we see the development of new technology to counter these fakes or until there is a robust crackdown on such fraudulent activities.
This Game Ends One Of Two Ways
This perspective on Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy isn't tinged with pessimism, but rather recognizes that their future path is likely to be at one of the extremes of the spectrum. Recently, a filing revealed Michael Saylor's intention to sell 310,000 shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) with the aim of buying Bitcoin. When asked about this move, Saylor commented as follows:
“Exercising this option will allow me to address personal obligations as well as acquire additional bitcoin (BTC) to my personal account," Saylor said during the call. "I continue to be optimistic about MicroStrategy's prospects and should note that my equity stake in the company after these sales will remain very significant.”
The ETF Is NOT PRICED IN
A minority of financial advisors, around 39%, think it will get approval in 2024. Even if this turns into a 'sell the news' scenario, I expect any downturn to be very brief. According to the study, “88% of advisors who are keen on buying Bitcoin are holding off until after a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved.” This juxtaposition of statistics is quite paradoxical and fuels my optimism about Bitcoin and the long-term prospects of the ETF.
The SEC Is Not All Bad
Commissioner Mark T. Uyeda's track record of making favorable decisions on crypto matters is noteworthy, and his swearing-in for a second term is certainly positive news. This event underscores the approach to succeeding in the crypto arena: achieving a series of incremental victories that collectively lead to significant progress. Kudos to Commissioner Uyeda on this achievement!
Bitcoin To SKYROCKET As Institutions Prepare For Bitcoin ETF
Will the Bitcoin ETF be finally approved? James Seyffart, ETF Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and Haider Rafique are coming to my show to share latest news and their insights about the most important event for crypto.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
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It would be cool to see how you do financial planning