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In This Issue:
30 Days Remain
BTC Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts - Weekly Levels
Jobs Data Today
Explain Ethereum To Me Like I Am 10
Bitcoin Attends The Primary Debate
Bitcoin Ordinals Auctioned At Sotheby’s
Jito Steals The Hype
The Bitcoin ETF will do THIS... And Bitcoin Will Hit $133,000 l Deezy
30 Days Remain
In approximately 30 days, Wall Street will enter our home and become a permanent resident. I hope you are prepared for a new guest, because everything is going to change.
As I've reiterated countless times, there is no a certainty of a Bitcoin Spot ETF until we see its market debut. As my father always said, “I will believe it when the check is in the bank.” Nonetheless, the odds of gaining approval in early January and subsequently going live within a couple of months following are remarkably high.
Predicting the influx of capital when the ETF goes live is akin to attempting to estimate the number of M&Ms in a jar, so I won't dwell on it. However, the anticipation surrounding this event is undeniable. I’ve seen some predictions say $50B while others say $250B. Both are exciting and both will likely look like peanuts over the long-run.
So once the Bitcoin ETF goes live, what changes?
Firstly, the debate regarding Bitcoin's credibility is obsolete. While I have long held this belief and refrained from engaging in arguments about it, I will now simply reference Wall Street's burgeoning interest and disregard the question altogether.
Secondly, if someone inquires whether it's still early, my response would be 'no.' Wall Street's entry does not imply that investors arriving afterward are ‘late,’ but I do believe we can characterize the subsequent wave of newcomers as being 'on time.' ‘Early’ is always preferred, but ‘on time’ can still be lucrative. We really don't have a clue as to what ‘late’ looks like, but we are nowhere close at this point in time.
Third, Bitcoin’s ETF approval is akin to Bitcoin hiring the world’s best global advertising agencies at once. It will likely become impossible to keep up with the advertisements of Bitcoin on billboards, commercials, newspapers, and various digital platforms. Bitcoin will become a normal part of mainstream conversation and a staple of financial discourse. We will likely have 12+ companies marketing their ETFs in a cut throat competition for AUM.
Fourth… this one is personal. I will continue to be a Bitcoin buyer (dollar cost averaging) when it makes sense, but not nearly as aggressively as I have been in the past. In bull runs, dips are opportunities for buying, but the approach should shift to a more measured pace, with selling a bit becoming a deliberate consideration as the price creates new all-time highs. I know this is heresy, but if selling some Bitcoin at some point can meaningfully improve your life, you probably should.
Fifth and finally, following the excitement of Bitcoin’s debut, the attention of the crypto space will suddenly and drastically shift to Ethereum. Ethereum will have its own set of hoops to jump through for approval, but the concept of a yield-bearing ETF will become an extremely shiny and curious toy for Wall Street. Bitcoin will finally step out of the spotlight, and the show will be all about Ethereum for quite a while. I don’t think anyone is really ready for ETH to outperform for months straight.
More than 10 years of hard work have brought us to this moment - the conclusion of one chapter and the commencement of another. Having this newsletter and all of you alongside me through the ups and downs is an incredible honor. I'm excited to see what 2024 has in store for us. Have a fantastic weekend, Wolf out.
BTC Thoughts And Analysis
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Here are a few weekly charts, with key levels that I will be using to determine likely support, resistance and targets.
Altcoin Charts - Weekly Levels
Key high time frame levels of support and resistance. They can be used as targets.
HBAR also appears to be attempting a breakout of key descending resistance, which puts the upper levels in play.
Jobs Data Today
Stock markets experienced a slight rise while bond markets saw a decline as traders anticipated the release of the US non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide insights into the cooling labor market. This report is significant for understanding whether the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates. The Stoxx 600 Index in Europe increased, but Anglo American Plc shares dropped significantly due to production cuts planned for the next year.
In the U.S., S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remained stable after a significant rally in the Nasdaq. The 10-year Treasury yield increased slightly, reflecting the market's reaction to the anticipated jobs report and ongoing speculation about Federal Reserve policy changes.
The report is expected to show moderate employment and wage growth but no significant decline in hiring. The anticipation of this data has driven a notable rally in the bond market, with expectations of considerable rate cuts by the Fed next year.
The labor market data, particularly the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, are closely watched as indicators of economic health. Analysts expect payroll growth and a steady unemployment rate, reflecting a potentially cooling but still robust labor market.
The yen strengthened considerably due to speculation that the Bank of Japan might soon increase its sub-zero benchmark rate. The dollar showed mixed performance against other major currencies.
In Asia, stock markets in Hong Kong and China recovered from earlier losses. Tencent Holdings Ltd. announced a significant new console game project, aiming for global expansion.
In commodities, oil prices increased but faced the longest weekly losing streak since 2018 due to global oversupply concerns. Meanwhile, gold prices were heading for their first weekly decline in four weeks.
Key events this week:
Germany CPI, Friday
US jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6% as of 10:03 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0779
The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.24 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.1725 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2561
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $43,132.29
Ether fell 0.9% to $2,349.02
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.18%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.23%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.03%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 2.2% to $75.69 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Explain Ethereum To Me Like I Am 10
ChatGPT: Imagine you have a giant, magical notebook that everyone in the world can write in. This notebook is really special because once you write something in it, it can't be erased or changed, and everyone can see what's been written. This notebook is called "Ethereum."
Ethereum is like a big computer that everyone can use together. You can use it to make agreements with people, play games, or even create your own special digital money (like tokens or coins). These special coins can represent anything - from a digital pet to a ticket for a concert.
What makes Ethereum really cool is that it uses something called "smart contracts." Think of a smart contract like a magic spell in the notebook. When certain things happen, the spell automatically does something else. For example, a smart contract could say, "If Sam gives me one of his digital pet tokens, I will automatically give him 5 of my digital coins."
Since Ethereum is like a big, shared computer, it doesn't belong to just one person or company. This means no single person can control it or turn it off, making it very powerful and free for anyone to use.
So, in simple terms, Ethereum is like a huge, magical, shared notebook where you can write spells (smart contracts) that do amazing things all by themselves!
Bitcoin Attends The Primary Debate
In a historic first, cryptocurrency took center stage during a presidential debate. During the fourth GOP debate, presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy fielded a loaded question on the subject, responding with exceptional clarity and conviction. Mr. Ramaswamy didn't shy away from directly addressing Gary Gensler and explicitly referencing Ethereum in his articulate response. It's evident that within the cryptocurrency community, Vivek Ramaswamy has solidified his position as a favored candidate among those looking to place their votes based on the sector.
Interviewer: Mr Ramaswamy, you've praised cryptocurrency like Bitcoin as an opt-out from our “broken financial architecture” and you oppose efforts to regulate it. The head of the largest international crypto exchange just pleaded guilty to allowing his platform to launder money for terrorists including Hamas. You say that your cryptocurrency plan will “ensure economic freedom for Americans.” Won't it also ensure economic freedom for fraudsters, criminals, and terrorists?
Mr. Ramaswamy: Fraudsters criminals, and terrorists have been defrauding people for a long time. Our regulations need to catch up with the current moment. The fact that SBF was able to do what he did at FTX shows that whatever they have as the current framework isn't working. I think it is nothing short of embarrassment that Gary Gensler, the current leader of the SEC, in front of Congress, could not even say whether Ethereum counted as a regulated security or not. This is just another example of the administrative state gone too far. Here is the dirty little secret in American politics today, the people who we elect to run the government are not the ones who are even actually running the government.
Bitcoin Ordinals Auctioned At Sotheby’s
Legendary auction house Sotheby's made history with its inaugural Bitcoin Ordinals-based NFT auction, featuring three items from the first-ever minted Bitcoin Ordinals— the BitcoinShrooms collection. This auction marks the first opportunity to acquire pieces from the collection and is active until the 13th of December. Notably, bids for the respective items have already reached $42,000, $50,000, and $28,000. Read below to explore Shroomtoshi's insights, the creator's perspective on the collection.
“The BitcoinShrooms collection is a pixelated recap of the first 13 years of Bitcoin, a homage to the 8-bit style of art that expresses a slight nostalgia for the 90s, a way to soil tens of thousands of SSDs spread across the world with my art (next level cyber-vandalism), a tool to raise awareness about Bitcoin and what I personally view as its core principles, an ironic way to vent at what I see as its annoying pop elements and aberrations. It is a thank you to those I worked with and learned from, to those who are not around anymore but whose names should not be forgotten.”
Jito Steals The Hype
Some of you might be perusing Jito headlines and experiencing a bit of FOMO regarding the missed JTO airdrop. Firstly, I want to clarify that airdrops fall outside my area of expertise, so if you're seeking insights in that domain, I might not be of much help. Secondly, for those contemplating entering a position after missing the airdrop, it's crucial to note that only 10% of the token supply has been distributed. This means a substantial number of tokens are yet to be released, posing a potential risk of diluting the token's value over time. While I cannot predict if the token can outperform this dilution, it's essential to be aware of this overhanging risk when considering a long-term investment.
The Bitcoin ETF will do THIS... And Bitcoin Will Hit $133,000 l Deezy
Deezy is here with the bold predictions for the next bull market!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.