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In This Issue:
This Is The Pre-Game
BTC Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Coinbase Continues To Ship New Products
It’s Extremely Obvious
Brazil’s Largest Bank Is Pro-Crypto
Bitcoin Is Going To $500,000 In This Bull Market
This Is The Pre-Game
Congratulations, you made it to the pre-game on time, let’s take a shot.
In case you have no idea what the previous sentence means, Urban Dictionary can help us out:
Activity that is DRINKING BEFORE DRINKING. Usually to drink before going out to a club or party. Sometimes the reason for pre-gaming is to get a buzz started before arriving at the destination, and sometimes to spend less money trying to obtain a drunken state at the bar or club.
Call me a boomer, but I prefer the pre-game because it offers a personalized experience, allowing individuals greater control over the music, activities, and overall atmosphere. With a more exclusive guest list, conversations become more engaging, and plans remain flexible. For many partygoers, the pre-game is often more memorable than the party itself.
All of this is cool, BUT there’s a difference between an average pre-game and an unforgettable pre-game, and it boils down to just one thing: the special guest.
Lucky for us, Bitcoin is our special guest.
A few months ago, I would have suggested that the eventual ETF approval would signify the arrival time for the pre-game, but Bitcoin had other plans, and the pre-game is now in full swing. What's remarkable about this ‘party before the party’ is its unannounced nature; only the OGs can truly revel in it, and that's the best part.
This might go against house rules, but since we are in the pre-game, having a more intimate conversation before the music turns up, let’s talk about how long this can go on. The elephant in the room is clearly the Bitcoin ETF, most likely arriving in early January, about 30 days from now.
Thirty days of 'up' may sound like a long time, but you have to remember we are working on Bitcoin time, not human time. Bitcoin has gone on extended benders in the past when least expected, which is why we need to sit tight and enjoy the vibes.
Somewhere out there, the world’s youngest Bitcoin investor is glancing at the chart and genuinely thinking, “forreal, no cap, this shit is mad lit on God.” What a wild thought.
I think the best question to ask is, who knows about our party?
On Google Trends, Bitcoin searches register a low score of 19 over a 5-year time frame, while on a one-year scale, the score is 70; however, I wouldn't deem any score on this shorter time frame reliable.
What about the Fear & Greed Index, does this tool know about our party?
I shared my brief thoughts on this measurement in the newsletter yesterday, so I’ll reiterate what I said in case you missed it: A contrarian would look at this and immediately think it is time to short the market, but it can go MUCH higher for MUCH longer.
How about Coinbase trending on the app store? Is that happening yet?
I did some searching on “Top Ranked iOS App Store Apps” and “Top Ranked Google Play Apps” and Coinbase is nowhere to be found on the ‘Free’ or ‘Grossing’ category within the top 200 recommended apps.
Outside of us crypto native investors, the mainstream still doesn’t have a clue there is an exclusive pre-game right next door and, honestly, it’s better this way. I have no idea how many shots Bitcoin will take before the pre-game transitions into the party, but I'm enjoying the ride. The early stages of any Bitcoin run are full of excitement because those of us who weathered the storm can fully relish the double or triple up before the crowd comes along and joins the celebration.
Oh, and did I mention there are plenty more pre-games to attend? If things play out neatly, I've heard rumors that an Ethereum pre-game is just around the corner once the Bitcoin celebrations die down a little. And if we want to really get ahead of ourselves, there will be after-parties much further down the line after the hype of the main party; this is where things get messy, but where the generational wealth journey begins.
So, cheers to higher highs and higher lows. To the journey of financial freedom. And to our special guest, Bitcoin.
And of course, cheers to you.
(Proceeds to nervously pray… please don’t let this newsletter be a top signal.)
BTC Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has clear bearish divergence with extremely overbought RSI, which should signal a reversal for a correction.
Hard to call a top when it keeps pushing, but at some point we will get the dip that people are looking for.
That dip will likely be for buying.
I would not short this for anything right now.
Altcoin Charts
Ethereum has taken a beating against Bitcoin, but that could change. I have mentioned a number of reasons - it is oversold on the weekly for the 4th time in history, all of which have preceded major moves up. We also now have potential bullish divergence. If ETH makes a lower low on the weekly close vs. Bitcoin, RSI is likely to make a higher low. This would be a major long term signal that ETH is going to outperform. A weekly divergence can take a long time to play out.
Legacy Markets
Stock markets are nearing a four-month high as traders speculate that central banks may be moving toward implementing interest rate cuts. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has fallen below 4.2%. The Stoxx 600 index is close to its highest level in four months, and US equity futures are on the rise. However, Merck KGaA's stock has dropped by 13% due to the failure of the Evobrutiniban trial, impacting the company's plans. Traders are debating the sustainability of the rally, considering recent comments from central bankers. Some analysts on Wall Street are cautious, believing that the Fed may not cut interest rates as quickly as the market expects. The rally in bonds has been influenced by developments in Europe, where the European Central Bank's officials noted a significant slowdown in inflation. Weaker-than-expected US jobs-market data also contributed to the bond market rally, suggesting that inflationary pressures were easing, possibly giving the Federal Reserve room to reduce rates. There is a surge in an index of sovereign debt excluding Treasuries, indicating that some traders are betting the ECB will cut interest rates before the Fed. Additionally, US government notes are expected to see their first annual gain in three years as bond investors prepare for a change in economic conditions in 2024. The market now anticipates six quarter-point rate cuts by the ECB in 2024, potentially reducing the key rate by 150 basis points to 2.5%. There is also a nearly 90% probability of an easing cycle beginning in the first quarter of the next year, a scenario that was not seriously considered just three weeks ago.
Key events this week:
US ADP private payrolls, trade balance, Wednesday
CEOs of the biggest banks on Wall Street, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, expected to testify on regulatory oversight to the Senate banking committee, Wednesday
Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting, Wednesday
Bank of England issues biannual stability report on UK financial system, holds news conference, Wednesday
China trade, forex reserves, Thursday
Eurozone GDP, Thursday
Germany industrial production, Thursday
US wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Germany CPI, Friday
Japan household spending, GDP, Friday
Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of financial stability Andrea Brischetto speaks at Sydney Banking and Financial Stability conference, Friday
US jobs report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 10:29 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0790
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.39 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1676 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2601
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $44,228.38
Ether rose 0.5% to $2,285.37
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.19%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.27%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.06%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.8% to $76.62 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,022.73 an ounce
Coinbase Continues To Ship New Products
Once again, Coinbase continues to impress, shipping out exciting new products that remind us why we are in crypto in the first place. Through the Coinbase wallet, users can now effortlessly send money anytime, anywhere, using just a simple link. Instead of me explaining, I'll let Coinbase do the talking.
Coinbase Wallet is introducing new ways to make sending money easier, cheaper, and faster. Users can now send money on any platform that they can share a link — including messaging apps like WhatsApp, iMessage, Telegram, and via popular social media apps, email, and more.
Let’s say you want to send money to family or friends in another country. Instead of dealing with the complexity of routing numbers, bank account numbers, expensive wire transfers, bank fees, and waiting up to 5 business days for the money to become available, simply use a link from Coinbase Wallet to send via your favorite messaging and social apps with no fees and instant settlement.
It’s Extremely Obvious
I covered the BlackRock ETF seed funding story yesterday, but I'd like to add some additional insights to this development. As the evidence supporting approval accumulates, I find myself growing more cautious, contemplating the potential for a sell-the-news reaction upon the announcement or shortly thereafter. However, there's a conflicting dynamic at play, as mainstream investors still appear largely unaware of the potential impact, suggesting a potential continued upward trajectory.
Regardless, I am still a long-term bull.
Another aspect I wanted to address is the unknown anticipated share price of the Bitcoin ETF. If it begins trading at a modest price, say $25, this could be particularly psychologically appealing to new investors. Such an accessible entry point has the potential to make Bitcoin more welcoming to a broader investor base, potentially alleviating concerns about perceived 'high prices' as a barrier to entry. Conceptually, one can view the Bitcoin ETF launch as one massive stock split, a typically bullish event.
Brazil’s Largest Bank Is Pro-Crypto
Brazil’s largest banking institution, Itau Unibanco, headquartered in São Paulo, officially launched crypto trading services yesterday. Initially focusing on Bitcoin and Ethereum trading, the bank promptly conveyed its openness to broaden its offerings beyond these two assets in the future. For reference, Itau Unibanco is a colossal entity, boasting nearly 100,000 employees, $500 billion in AUM, and serving over 65 million individual clients. In response to the development, the bank's digital asset head, Guto Antunes, emphasized, “It starts with bitcoin, but our overarching strategic plan is to expand to other crypto assets in the future.”
Bitcoin Is Going To $500,000 In This Bull Market
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.