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In This Issue:
CZ Out, Bull Market In
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Goodbye Bittrex
CZ’s Final Statement
Brian’s Beanie
The TRUTH About Algorand l US WAR Against Crypto
CZ Out, Bull Market In
Yesterday, Bloomberg Terminal reported that a group of key regulators and the Department of Justice were preparing to make a significant announcement related to cryptocurrency. Described as "separate but interconnected enforcement actions," speculation swirled until it was revealed that the focus was on Binance. The action involved a settlement exceeding $4 billion, and it was disclosed that Changpeng Zhao, Binance's CEO, would face criminal charges.
The high-profile roster for the press conference included Attorney General Merrick Garland, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, and CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam.
Attached is a screenshot of the announcement.
After the initial announcement, uncertainty arose about the impending afternoon developments. Speculations included a potential lawsuit against Tether, the possibility of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) facing jail time, or whether this was merely a formal acknowledgment of already known information. In response to these uncertainties, further insights were provided by the Bloomberg Terminal.
Before the press conference, the key developments were Binance agreeing to a $4.3 billion payment, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down and pleading guilty, and Binance's survival. This revelation was striking, with CZ and a significant financial commitment being the price for Binance's continued operation.
CZ's public image transformed dramatically in just a few hours, going from a contentious figure in the space to a savior. Among the day's reactions, one particular Tweet stood out as my favorite.
These events led me to several personal conclusions:
The SEC is now in a stronger position to approve the Bitcoin ETF.
Coinbase holds a substantial lead in the US.
There appear to be no significant barriers to an upcoming bull market.
Just before the press conference, the U.S. government leveled three charges against Binance: running an unlicensed money transmitting business, a conspiracy charge, and violating the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
If the SEC's aim was to 'clean up' the space before greenlighting the Bitcoin ETF, this development might fulfill that objective. The timing, coinciding with the ETF announcement and a generally bullish sentiment, could be seen as either perfect or opportunistic, depending on perspective.
Considering this news in a different market context, like during a bear market or alongside other industry developments, the reaction might have been less favorable, potentially fueling skepticism toward ETF approval.
It's intriguing that, in retrospect, CZ's exit and Binance's penalty seemed almost expected prerequisites for ETF approval, though this was not openly discussed prior.
Shifting focus to additional details, Zhao is barred from Binance's operations or management for three years. Binance will pay $1.81 billion within 15 months and another $2.51 billion as part of the settlement. Despite Binance needing to liquidate some assets, there doesn't seem to be a significant reason for the market to decline from here.
The press conference essentially reiterated known information, with some typical hyperbolic claims from regulators. CZ made his final statement, which I've commented on, and Richard Teng was announced as the new CEO of Binance.
Richard's first Tweet, which I interpret as signaling the ongoing progress of the industry, can be seen HERE. He also outlined his three-step focus:
1) reassuring users that they can remain confident in the financial strength, security and safety of the company
2) collaborating with regulators to uphold high standards globally that foster innovation while providing important consumer protections
3) working with partners to drive growth and adoption of Web3
It was an eventful day that showcased the industry's resilience. The bear market necessitated a cleansing, and the outcomes weren't as dire as they could have been. I wish Richard Teng and Binance well and look forward to a prosperous future and sustained bullish market momentum. Onwards and upwards!
There won't be another newsletter this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday here in the U.S. However, I'll remain active on Twitter and am eager to finish the year on a strong note with all of you. Don't forget to check out the NGRAVE Black Friday sale below. I'm sharing it in advance, so if you plan to make a purchase, revisit this letter in your inbox and click on the provided link. Thank you, and have a wonderful holiday.
The NGRAVE sale lasts from Thursday, 23 November, 17:00 CET to Tuesday, 28 November, 10:00 CET.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Very little to see here, which is good. Bitcoin is still struggling with the resistance zone above, consolidating for the next big move. Even the Binance news barely affected the chart, as price has retraced much of the initial drop.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
Ethereum hit the strongest resistance zone on the chart before retracing as expected. Now we have a clearly defined descending resistance, as ETH consolidates for another likely push up. Easy to trade - wait for a break of the descending black line if you are a risk taker, wait for a break of the $2,150 area if you are more conservative, as price will be breaking through the major horizontal resistance.
I still think ETH has lagged and is a giant waiting to wake up.
Legacy Markets
Stocks showed a mixed performance, while the dollar gained strength ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was largely overlooked by the markets, and oil prices remained stable. European stocks saw a rise, with companies like Thyssenkrupp and Sage posting gains after strong earnings reports.
In the U.S., futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were unchanged, indicating a pause in the recent Wall Street rally. Nvidia's shares dropped in pre-market trading following earnings that didn't meet high investor expectations, while General Motors saw gains after changes in its self-driving car unit's leadership.
Investors awaited data on U.S. jobless claims and consumer sentiment for insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. The Fed's meeting minutes revealed a cautious approach to future interest rate decisions, with focus on inflation targets. There's currently about a 25% chance predicted for a rate cut in March.
On the global stage, the Stoxx Europe 600 index edged up. In Asia, a decline in AI stocks led to a fall in the overall equities index, with Chinese tech and industrial stocks lagging.
In the cryptocurrency world, Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, pleaded guilty to charges including money laundering, causing a dip in Bitcoin and BNB prices.
Oil prices remained steady, with expectations of a U.S. stockpile increase and an upcoming OPEC+ meeting on supply.
Key events this week:
Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
US initial jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, durable goods, Wednesday
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks, Wednesday
Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Thursday
US markets closed for Thanksgiving holiday while Japan is off for Labor Thanksgiving — Thursday
ECB publishes account of October policy meeting, Thursday
Black Friday, traditional kickoff for the US holiday shopping season
ECB’s Christine Lagarde speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.3% as of 10:05 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.4%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro was little changed at $1.0902
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 149.06 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 7.1614 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2529
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $36,753.18
Ether rose 1.3% to $2,011.73
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.39%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.12%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.7% to $81.88 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,002.57 an ounce
Goodbye Bittrex
I couldn't cover this news yesterday due to the overwhelming amount of information to address, but it's crucial to highlight that Bittrex is permanently closing its doors, including its U.S. counterpart, as announced earlier this year. All trading activities on Bittrex will come to a halt on December 4th when the platform officially shuts down and the company is strongly encouraging users to finalize any pending transactions before this date, as only withdrawals will be available thereafter.
While the exchange hasn't specified the reason for its shutdown, it is plausible to attribute it to the challenging regulatory landscape and evolving industry dynamics. Bittrex has grappled with lawsuits and bankruptcies in its struggle to sustain operations. The closure signifies the end of an era, especially for original traders who relied on Bittrex to access small-cap coins. In summary, this development underscores the reality that most players in the industry won't persevere, even exchanges.
CZ’s Final Statement
It's disheartening to witness CZ's departure, yet I maintain optimism that he is far from finished. CZ played a significant role in resisting regulatory pressures, and even if he didn't always conform entirely he still propelled the cause of financial freedom forward. CZ deserves a break, and his reputation remains untarnished. I can't help but draw parallels to Arthur Hayes, who still leaves a lasting legacy in this space through occasional blogging and speaking engagements. CZ was always destined for an active role, and I am confident that he will once again find his way back into the forefront down the line. You will be missed, CZ.
Brian’s Beanie
It’s exciting to watch Coinbase continue to press its foot on the gas. It appears through a demo video shared by Brian Armstorng, that a new payments feature called Coinbase Commerce is coming soon. Hence the video of purchasing ‘Brian’s beanie’ through a seamless Coinbase transaction.
This is what Brian Armstrong had to say:
We're working hard to make paying with crypto the best way to pay online. It's gotten faster and cheaper to send global payments with Base. Now we need to remove more intermediate steps.
In the ideal world, every payment is under 1 second and 1 cent, and it's a one tap checkout. Your shipping address or email address should also be transferred in the same tap, if you want to allow the merchant to receive this information.
Still WIP but getting closer. Crypto is the native form of money on the internet.
The TRUTH About Algorand l US WAR Against Crypto
Last week, my guest Invest Answers claimed that Algorand was a CBDC chain. Staci Warden quickly messaged me, accusing me of not doing my journalistic duty. So I invited her on to clarify.
Also, the SEC charges Kraken. Binance is in the crosshairs. And Bittrex Global is shutting down.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.