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In This Issue:
A Campaign for the Future
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The SEC Continues Commenting On ETF Filings
Fidelity Files For An Ethereum ETF
Argentina Elects A Pro-Bitcoin President
A Campaign for the Future
Five months ago at Bitcoin Miami, a presidential candidate delivered a compelling pro-crypto speech to a crowd that was skeptical but hopeful. At the time, many raised concerns about the authenticity of the speech and questioned whether this candidate had a fighting chance in the election.
Oh, how times have changed in just a few months.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the individual I described above, is a formidable force in this upcoming election. On a separate but similarly pro-crypto front is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., running as an independent. I generally steer clear of polling sites due to their inaccuracies, but both RFK Jr. and Vivek are serious contenders.
In today’s intro, I want to highlight Vivek Ramaswamy’s recent comments from a crypto interview, which offer a glimpse into his plans if he were to be elected.
Interviewer: If you become president of the U.S. what changes will you make from a crypto perspective?
Vivek Ramaswamy: I think what changes is that regulation by enforcement ends. What does that mean? That the rules are delineated clearly in advance, rather than you having to wait for an enforcement action for the SEC to figure out whether or not a given coin was a security or not. Gary Gensler refuses to say today for example about Ethereum. Any regulation that Congress did not expressly give an agency the power to pass is null and void.
I put these into three categories for the areas of reform that I've laid out:
Principle one is the freedom to code. Code is speech. In the tornado cash example that’s wrong.
Principle two is financial self-reliance. AML statutes, know your customer, the Bank Secrecy Act has been weaponized. Self-hosted wallets should not be touched.
Principle three is the freedom to innovate. The wet blanket on American innovation isn't even Congress, it’s a regulatory state that’s making up its own rules regardless of the laws.
The good news about all of this is these are things I can get done as the US president without asking Congress for permission or for forgiveness because this relates to the executive branch of the government.
Interviewer: How will you incentivize Congress to actually move forward on some of these crypto legislations?
Vivek Ramaswamy: Any regulation that's being applied outside of the scope of what Congress itself authorized the SEC, for example, to do. We'll cease enforcement action and we will rescind those regulations that are hampering innovation and the basic functioning of the crypto sector more broadly.
We're going to have clarity on what counts as a security or not. Not deciding after the fact like a game of musical chairs to see who's left standing.
Interviewer: Under your new framework how do you plan to protect the American citizens against scams and hacks?
Vivek Ramaswamy: Enforce the existing laws as they exist on the books for other types of property. I don't think that we need to reinvent the rules for something for an asset just because it happens to be a digital asset. I think we confound our understanding by creating a governmental overreach that's particularly hostile to crypto.
Interviewer: What's your litmus test for deciding if something's a security or commodity? Do you think the Howey test is the right tool to be using?
Vivek Ramaswamy: I think Gary Gensler should have been able to give a clear answer of whether Ethereum counts as a security or not when he was testifying before Congress. He couldn't offer a clear answer. Ambiguity is the friend of the Tyrant. The current framework fails.
My view is that most forms of cryptocurrency should be in the category of commodities, not securities. They fail the test of what securities were all about in the first place.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are a part of my portfolio and in Q1 of next year, I will be releasing the names of recommended replacements for major agencies including the SEC.
Vivek Ramaswamy has diligently done the homework and grasps the needs of this sector as a whole. It's remarkable to consider the increasing possibility that the leader of the free world and the most impactful country in global economics could elect a pro-crypto President.
Argentina and El Salvador have already paved the way; it's only a matter of time until more countries follow suit.
*This is in no way an endorsement of Ramaswamy. I will continue to share the crypto platforms of any candidate that has one.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is continuing to push against the $38,000 area of resistance, showing strength with all dips being quickly bought. RSI remains in the power zone, where we usually see continued movement up on the weekly. Not much to talk about here, just waiting for the next big move.
Legacy Markets
The US dollar extended its decline, reaching its lowest point since August, influenced by speculation that the Federal Reserve might soon conclude its series of rate hikes. This sentiment was fueled by recent inflation data suggesting a cooling economy. Investors are keenly awaiting the upcoming publication of the last Fed rates meeting minutes for deeper insights into the central bank's future policy direction. The probability of a Fed rate cut by March is currently estimated at around 30%.
In the stock market, US equity futures showed little change, maintaining stability after a three-week rally that lifted the S&P 500 to an 11-week high. Microsoft Corp. saw a notable increase in pre-market trading, following the appointment of Sam Altman to lead its in-house AI team. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index experienced fluctuations due to a mix of corporate news. Bayer AG faced a significant drop after halting a crucial drug trial and a legal setback, while Italian banks gained following Moody's decision to upgrade Italy's debt outlook. The European market is also grappling with rising energy costs, which could impact inflation and interest rate decisions, adding another layer of complexity to the economic landscape.
Key events this week:
European Central Bank governing council members Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Boris Vujcic speak at separate events, Monday
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Monday
US Conference Board leading index, Monday
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks, Tuesday
Canada CPI, Tuesday
Federal Reserve Nov. policy meeting minutes, Tuesday
Nvidia earnings, Tuesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Wednesday
US initial jobless claims, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, durable goods, Wednesday
Eurozone PMIs, Thursday
UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, Thursday
European Central Bank publishes account of Oct. policy meeting, Thursday
Thanksgiving holiday in the US, Thursday
Japan CPI, Friday
Germany GDP, Friday
US manufacturing PMI, Friday
Black Friday sales begin, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0927
The British pound was little changed at $1.2472
The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 148.32 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $37,310.68
Ether rose 2.8% to $2,038.32
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.46%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.60%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.12%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $76.55 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,976.02 an ounce
The SEC Continues Commenting On ETF Filings
The window for the SEC to approve all 12 Bitcoin ETF applications in one round has closed, with early January now serving as the final opportunity in this time cycle. On a positive note, the SEC is continuing to engage in closed-door discussions with the filers, evidenced by the latest development concerning the preference for 'cash creative' over 'in-kind.' In an in-kind structure, issuers would receive Bitcoin to issue new shares, whereas a cash creative approach requires the issuer to purchase the Bitcoin itself, simplifying the process by eliminating digital transactions. This adjustment doesn't alter the quantity of Bitcoin bought but streamlines the paper trail managed by ETFs and custodians.
It's essential to note that the ETF outcome in January, whether approved or not, will not be an end-all-be-all for the market. If the ETF is not approved, the spring will simply coil more leading to the halving.
Fidelity Files For An Ethereum ETF
It’s become a meme that good news, bad news, and everything else won't budge the price of Ethereum. Ironically, the longer this meme circulates, the more explosive Ethereum's move will likely become. Regarding the latest listing details, the Fidelity Ethereum Fund is slated for trading on the Cboe BZX Exchange, identified by the ticker ETHF. With Fidelity's filing, the count for Ethereum ETF filers now stands at 7, including names like Van Eck, 21 Shares & ARK, Hashdex, Grayscale, Invesco and Galaxy, and BlackRock.
As a final thought on this topic, it's astounding to witness Ethereum labeled as the 'laughingstock' of the crypto community while Wall Street, represented by the $4.5 trillion asset manager Fidelity, makes significant moves. Is it plausible to consider Ethereum 'dead' simply because it hasn't experienced a breakout in recent months? Ethereum is poised to defy expectations, and the prevailing narrative might soon shift to 'everyone knew all along.’
Argentina Elects A Pro-Bitcoin President
Argentina has etched its name in history with the election of the pro-Bitcoin candidate, Javier Milei. What adds a distinctive element to this victory is that Milei’s closest opponent, who espoused entirely opposing views on how the country’s economy should be managed, advocated for CBDCs.
Financial freedom prevails. R
egarding Bitcoin, Milei has eloquently expressed that it “represents the return of money to its original creator, the private sector,” underscoring his perspective by denouncing the Argentina central bank as a “scam.”
Here’s a hint about why this matters for Bitcoin…
El Salvador’s GDP was $32.49 USD Billion in 2022.
Argentina’s GDP was $632.77 billion in 2022.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.