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In This Issue:
Nouriel Roubini Is Full Of Sh*t
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Celebrities Are Next After SBF?
The DOJ Wants More Authority
Robinhood Plummets
Your Bitcoin Target Of $150,000 Is Too Low l Here's Why!
Nouriel Roubini Is Full Of Sh*t
One thing I love about this newsletter is that even I never know which direction it will take. When I first started on today’s issue, I was writing up a short entertaining segment covering the drama on Twitter between Changpeng Zhao (CEO of Binance) and Nouriel Roubini (economist, author, crypto hater). I thought the story ended there, but then decided to double back on Roubini’s Atlas token. I was astonished at what I found.
This is the story of Atlas, another virtue-signaling, venture-backed shitcoin, which is hiding behind climate issues. This is not to be confused with Star Atlas.
For starters, let’s address the drama over Atlas, CZ’s Tweet below summarizes it concisely. Long story short, if Nouriel Roubini wasn't as much of an a**hole, this drama would have likely never arisen and I would be without an interesting intro topic, but here we are, collectively despising Nouriel Roubini.
So the drama between these two ends there, but that’s when I decided to look under the hood of Atlas, just to see how bad it was. And boy did I find a stinking pile of garbage.
In case you didn't know, Atlas is a “climate token,” that stands for “Atlas Trust for Land Adaptation and Sustainability.” Below is the dialogue from Nouriel Roubini detailing the ‘why’ behind Atlas.
Global climate change is severe, the next pandemic won't be 100 years from now, governments are battling inflation and trying to stabilize their own currencies, investors are anxious as we are entering a more difficult economic cycle, civil strike is occurring throughout the world including our own backyard, and the risk of war among great nations is rising.
If all this materializes, the entire system fails and therefore we lose both individually and collectively. So we are rethinking the future of investment, to make it sustainable, resilient, and leading to the common good.
Over the past couple of years, we have been working to build a new company called Atlas that brings together the private and public sectors to address this macro risk in a more collective and integrated manner.
In case you couldn’t tell, these are some VERY large ambitions.
Moving on, let’s now shift our focus to the “Executive Summary” which appears to serve as a replacement for a white paper. See if you can spot any red flags.
Hmmmmm how many buzzwords can we use at once… we definitely need in there AI somewhere.
Ahhhh yes, a stablecoin that offers high returns, investors will love that.
Our current strategy is foolproof because history says it works!
Where do I even big with this one? Is Atlas a stablecoin or an investment strategy? Why does Atlas need a token? Is Atlas actually a cryptocurrency or an investment fund? Is Atlas built on a public blockchain? Is there even a blockchain? What is the token distribution? What problem is Atlas really attempting to solve? What positive changes have been made so far? What VCs are behind Atlas? I could go on and on.
As you might gather, I’m overwhelmed trying to comprehend Atlas, as it appears to be more about hype than actual substance. In many aspects, Atlas brings to mind Worldcoin - an exceedingly ambitious and ethically driven investment initiative that falls short in addressing fundamental queries.
While I refrain from outright labeling Atlas a scam, it's essential to recognize that as the industry evolves, scams will also evolve, camouflaging themselves to the untrained eye. My approach to addressing these gray areas has been to ask basic fundamental questions, and if satisfactory answers aren't provided, to proceed with caution.
Worldcoin and Atlas both falter in addressing these basic questions. Not to mention, it's intriguing that Atlas’s spokesperson (Nouriel Roubini) not long ago said “Crypto is the mother or father of all scams and bubbles” to the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Community Affairs. Ironic right?
As I said with Worldcoin - the experiences of the past have reinforced that no entity in the crypto world gets a free pass, and that's a lesson I don't intend to forget.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin continues to trade sideways, so there's really nothing to discuss. It is in a bit more of an ascending channel than range, but the meaning is basically the same. We are watching altcoins move while Bitcoin consolidates.
Altcoin Charts
For those who are new here, I share SETUPS and not SIGNALS. These are ideas that I am watching - if a certain thing happens, then the trade triggers. I am not telling you what to buy or when. I am showing you how I am watching certain charts and what has to happen for me to take a trade.
DOT broke out of the descending channel and retested it as support. It appears to be heading to $5.76 as the first target. A break of that level would be the first higher high in market structure, and would technically break this bearish trend of 2023. That’s what we really want to see. You can see that there has been a huge spike in volume since the bottom - also bullish.
Legacy Markets
Stock markets were cautious as investors awaited guidance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials about the future of interest rates. European and U.S. stocks were slightly down, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising slightly. Oil prices remained near a three-month low due to weak demand forecasts, exacerbated by a potential drop in U.S. gasoline consumption and China's diminishing oil demand as winter approaches. Fed officials emphasized their commitment to fighting inflation, with no clear signals of rate cuts in the near future. Despite this, there's speculation that if the Fed manages to steer the economy clear of a recession, there could be a significant rally in equities in 2024. Meanwhile, Japanese bank shares fell, affecting the Topix index, and Chinese equities are being watched for potential gains ahead of a meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
Key events this week:
Eurozone retail sales, Wednesday
Germany CPI, Wednesday
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Wednesday
Bank of Japan issues October summary of opinions, Thursday
BOE chief economist Huw Pill speaks on the economy, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in panel on monetary policy challenges, Thursday
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Richmond counterpart Tom Barkin speak, Thursday
ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in fireside chat, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and her Atlanta counterpart Raphael Bostic speak, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.1% as of 9:06 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0672
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 150.73 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2854 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2257
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.5% to $35,339.48
Ether fell 0.7% to $1,880.24
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.59%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.64%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.25%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.2% to $81.79 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Celebrities Are Next After SBF?
With SBF now out of the picture, FTX investors have shifted their focus towards pursuing damages from celebrities through a class-action lawsuit centered on claims of inadequate due diligence. I'm not a legal expert, so I can't assess the validity of these claims, but I can't help but ponder how far this lawsuit will progress. At its core, this legal battle revolves around the extent of due diligence that celebrities and their teams are expected to conduct. It's crucial to remember that the FTX fraud operated openly within the industry, escaping notice from regulators and customers alike. Is it reasonable to seek damages from individuals like Tom Brady, Steph Curry, and Larry David? I can't say, but I plan to seek an expert opinion the next time I have a legal professional on the show.
The DOJ Wants More Authority
The IRS is moving towards heightened surveillance of cryptocurrency, and simultaneously, the DOJ is aiming to strengthen its capacity to confiscate digital assets at an unprecedented level. This issue stems from President Biden's Executive Order 14067, which marked the administration's initial focus on cryptocurrency matters. Using this directive as leverage, the DOJ is seeking broader authority over criminal, civil, and administrative forfeiture. Additionally, the recent broker proposal by the IRS adds weight to the DOJ's stance, ultimately striving for independent seizure powers without judicial oversight. As of right now, nothing major has changed, but it will be interesting to see what authority ends up where especially if a new presidency begins.
Robinhood Plummets
Third-quarter earnings revealed that Robinhood’s transactional volume dropped 55% fall from the prior quarter whereas Coinbase’s was down just 12% from the prior three-month period. Coinbase doesn’t trade equities, but as a comparison, Robinhood’s transaction revenues for equities dropped by 13% quarter over quarter. Despite the bad news, Robinhood appears committed to crypto.
Your Bitcoin Target Of $150,000 Is Too Low l Here's Why!
Caleb Franzen and Wick join to discuss the current market and why your targets for the next cycle top are too low!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.