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In This Issue:
The Most Hated Asset
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The SEC Subpoenas PayPal
This Major Swiss Bank Now Offers Bitcoin
Make It Make Sense
Coinbase Beat
SBF Found Guilty On All Charges
Bitcoin Is Pumping In The Face Of A Global Economic Meltdown l What Comes Next?
The Most Hated Asset
What do you think is the most hated cryptocurrency right now?
A) Bitcoin
B) Hex
C) Ethereum
D) Dogecoin
E) XRP
The correct answer is C.
Is this an objective assessment? I'm not entirely certain, but what seems apparent is that the anti-Ethereum sentiment is currently more pronounced than ever, primarily driven by one factor: price. I haven’t been in crypto nearly as long as some of you (my readers) or the people I interview, but I think I have a good grasp on what is going on, and a parallel can be drawn to sports.
Yes, you read that correctly. The situation surrounding Ethereum is comparable to the experience of a high-level professional athlete in any sport facing hate. By setting aside the financial aspect and adopting a more psychological and social perspective, we can equate Ethereum to someone like Cristiano Ronaldo. Essentially, both are top performers in their respective domains and, at times, attract a significant amount of criticism.
Cristiano Ronaldo hardly needs an introduction. Widely acclaimed for his remarkable skills, dedication, and numerous achievements, Ronaldo continues to encounter disdain from fans and always has at various points in his career. His success and stature in the sport place him under intense scrutiny, and his occasional underperformance in crucial matches has led to criticisms, especially in comparison to the lofty expectations set for him.
Another factor leading to hatred of Ronaldo is his demeanor, sometimes perceived as arrogance. His self-assured nature and occasional displays of ego have caused polarized opinions, leading to a divide among supporters and critics. Am I saying this resembles Vitalik or the Ethereum devs? No, that entirely misses the point. But what I am saying is that Ethereum’s success along with its sense of dominance and community confidence has created some enemies along the way.
Consistent success often leads to elevated expectations. For example who in crypto actually hated Hex? Nobody outside of the Hex community believed the nonsense Richard Heart spewed and consequently, Hex didn't draw much hate; instead, it was met with amusement. Hex never posed a substantial threat to anyone's investments, and those outside the Hex community considered its followers sheep. This isn't the same narrative for XRP or Dogecoin, but with a little bit of deduction, it's easy to understand why these assets don't attract as much animosity when they underperform.
Much of the current animosity directed towards Ethereum stems from the success of other assets in terms of price. In recent months, there hasn't been any significant groundbreaking development in assets beyond Bitcoin, leading to heightened anxiety within the altcoin community. Additionally, the narrative surrounding Solanan which was initially framed as a failed ‘Eth killer,' a label that seemed appropriate until Solana began to outperform Ethereum, disrupted this previously accepted reality.
This image below is keeping a lot of people up at night.
Not to mention, the numbers below (SOL/ETH) are also hard for some people to wrap their heads around. For all my soccer fans, this would be the equivalent of Robert Lewandowski or Karim Benzema outperforming Ronaldo. If you have never heard of these names, well that’s kind of the point.
If Solana were to stage a long term recovery, it would inherently need to outperform Ethereum. This principle applies to every altcoin that experienced a considerable loss in market share, with some dropping over 95%, compared to Ethereum's approximately 75% decline (napkin math). Not every asset will surpass Ethereum's performance. The advantage of Ethereum lies in its higher likelihood of a positive price performance compared to the majority of altcoins that will never recover. Betting on Ethereum is akin to betting on a top performer like Ronaldo. If someone is going to beat him, they are going to have to literally be the best.
I encourage the existence of criticism within the space. The current hate directed towards Ethereum signals doubt, often indicating that the ‘crowd’ might be on the wrong side of a trade. If Ethereum experiences a significant surge soon, the 'crowd' may claim they anticipated it, but the true victors will be the silent supporters who always believed in its potential rise and have been patently waiting.
Wishing everyone a fantastic weekend, Wolf out.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has some work to do to avoid putting in an ugly weekly topping candle after yesterday’s move down. This is not the end of the world, but we have had some signals that this move is losing steam and that consolidation is likely next. Right now we have a gravestone doji, for those curious about the candle structure.
I am currently looking to add to my position on a dip to the $31,000 to $31,800 area, if we get it.
Nothing unhealthy here for now.
You can see that we have confirmed bearish divergence that I have been discussing this week. We could see hidden bullish divergence soon, if we get a bounce in price. That would be a lower low on RSI and a higher low on price. We need to wait and see. But as I said, with RSI hitting around 90, this move looked exhausted.
Consolidation is healthy.
Legacy Markets
U.S. stock futures declined, hinting at a cautious market mood before the release of key U.S. employment data. Investors are contemplating whether the recent aggressive interest rate hikes could be tapering off. Apple's stock experienced a premarket drop, influenced by lower-than-expected earnings from China. Despite a pullback in Treasury yields, market participants are placing bets on the end of significant rate increases, prompted by a slow down in inflation and economic growth.
Market sentiment is hinging on the upcoming nonfarm payroll data, which is anticipated to show a hiring slowdown in October. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the direction of future rate adjustments remains undecided, and a pause in hikes does not necessarily signal the end of the tightening cycle.
Investors are also weighing earnings reports, as a wave of underwhelming corporate results might suggest that the Fed's restrictive policies are beginning to affect economic activity, potentially allowing for a softer stance on interest rates in the future. European markets showed limited movement, while the U.S. dollar and oil prices are on track for weekly declines, and gold is also set to drop this week. Bitcoin's value decreased following the conviction of Sam Bankman-Fried for fraud, which led to the downfall of the FTX exchange.
Key events this week:
Eurozone unemployment, Friday
US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Canada employment report, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%
The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0646
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2227
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 150.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $34,253.19
Ether fell 0.8% to $1,789.51
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.64%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.71%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.39%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $83.11 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
Title
The SEC Subpoenas PayPal
In PayPal's latest quarterly report, the payment giant disclosed that the SEC issued a subpoena to the company concerning its PYUSD stablecoin, introduced in August. This dollar-pegged stablecoin, the first of its kind from a major financial service firm, drew attention due to its resemblance to Facebook's earlier initiative, Libra. Currently, the SEC's request solely pertains to documentation, and PayPal has opted to cooperate. However, specific details remain undisclosed at this time. If anything further comes of this, I’ll have to start bashing the SEC again, but for now, I’ll be the ‘wise’ guy who bites his tongue until we learn more. While PYUSD wasn't a coin I intended to use, I acknowledge that healthy competition is valuable and shouldn't be arbitrarily dismissed.
This Major Swiss Bank Now Offers Bitcoin
St. Galler Kantonalbank - that was a mouthful - has partnered with SEBA Bank to provide retail customers with access to cryptocurrency trading and custody services. What's particularly interesting about this development is that SGKB had already introduced crypto services earlier in the year for its high-net-worth clients. However, the bank has opted to expand its services by offering a wider range of options and increased accessibility to its clientele. While SGKB represents just a drop in the bucket of the larger financial landscape, it serves as evidence that once financial entities swallow the orange pill, the desire for more doesn’t stop. Crypto ETFs already exist in other countries, but once the U.S. has them, think about what will happen around the world. The U.S. might be slow but the country remains the financial leader of the world.
Make It Make Sense
The world’s first short ether-linked futures ETF is now live, and yet a spot Bitcoin ETF is still not approved. Can someone please explain to me how the f**k a short exposure ETF linked to ETH futures makes it through the SEC’s approval process, while BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF continues to face pushback? I have no issues with SETH (ProShares' new ETH product) launching, and I fully support the market offering a wide range of long and short products. However, I'm baffled by who Gary arbitrarily allows in the door.
Coinbase Beat
Coinbase reported a loss per share of just one cent for Q3, outperforming analysts' projections of a 55-cent loss. The company also surpassed revenue expectations, achieving a quarter with $674.1 million against an expected $653.19 million. These positive results occurred despite the company's trading volumes declining to $11 billion for the quarter, down from $26 billion the previous year. Following the announcement, shares of COIN did initially drop a few percentage points after hours but managed to recover considerably.
SBF Found Guilty On All Charges
We can now move forward and leave the SBF saga behind as a new chapter begins. After a deliberation lasting four and a half hours, the jury found Sam guilty on all seven charges, which now puts him at risk of facing up to 115 years in prison. Judge Lewis Kaplan has scheduled SBF's sentencing for March 28th. It would have been a bonus if Bitcoin surged on this news, but the conclusion of this story is, honestly, the best possible outcome.
Bitcoin Is Pumping In The Face Of A Global Economic Meltdown l What Comes Next?
Gary Cardone joins to discuss the meteoric rise of Bitcoin and what is coming next. Dan The Chart Guy shares his charts and trades.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.