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In This Issue:
I Have Exciting News
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The Language And Tone Have Changed
London Stock Exchange Goes Down
The SEC Capitulates Again
How To Protect Your Funds During Wars & Conflicts
I Have Exciting News
I'm deeply committed to delivering the highest-quality content to all of you, which is why I'm thrilled to announce my partnership with Wick, also known as @ZeroHedge on Twitter, to introduce an exciting new charting experience and perspective.
Trading through market cycles is undeniably challenging, especially after a bull market is over. This is why I typically advise against trying to trade during bear markets. However, I firmly believe that we are currently in an accumulation phase, possibly entering a bull market. With that being said, I think this is an opportune moment to seize, and there is no one I can think of that I rather have navigating the charts for us as we enter these exciting times than Wick.
The glory days of this newsletter have always been sharing EPIC trades in a bull market and I eagerly await those days to return. I am making sure that we are well-equipped and ready for the bull market. Before I continue, as always, all trades shared here by me or anyone else are NOT financial advice. It is for entertainment and education purposes only. You are ALWAYS the master of your own ship, ALL the time.
Enough about me and this newsletter, let's shift the focus so I can introduce Wick and provide you with an insight into what you can anticipate. Wick has been self-employed as a full-time options trader for the past 18 years—an impressive feat in a field where most are lucky to last a couple of years. He was introduced to the world of cryptocurrency back in ‘16 and has consistently demonstrated exceptional accuracy in trading across all market cycles.
I personally conducted back-testing on his signals and indicators and can vouch for their authenticity. Wick keeps a close eye on the markets at all times, with a primary emphasis on investing and swing trading medium-term setups, making him an ideal match for this audience and my style.
And the best part? Trading Alpha's indicators will be made available to all of you free of charge, unique solely to us. This will encompass high-probability setups for both short-term trading and long-term investing - the trades that you've been eagerly anticipating. In addition to these valuable setups, Wick will share his insights on market structure and provide general market analysis. You can also look forward to educational lessons. I can’t wait to get this off the ground running and to equip all of you with the essential tools for navigating the bull market.
IT’S GOING TO BE EPIC.
Below is the first chart I have to share with all of you, there will be plenty more. I am still determining where in the letter I will share them but for now, enjoy it here.
$BTC (Weekly chart)
Here is a macro view of Bitcoin in relation to the halving using the Alpha Bundle tools as we get closer to the halving.
Currently in a stage 3 basing. This is a wide consolidation area where price usually tends to stay range-bound (Blue box)
Printing its first green micro trend Dots leads us to believe price is trying to target the upper range.
The risk we face in the medium term technically, is that compared to previous Bitcoin cycles, we usually tend to see another 20-30% pullback before the bull market. We have marked this as our historical probability zone.
We will be monitoring this framework, waiting for more setups, which we will be sharing with everyone.
Before I conclude, there are a couple of final important points I'd like to highlight. For those of you looking to fully immerse yourselves in the Trading Alpha experience, I have an exclusive 2-month free discount code for those considering the annual plan. Simply use the code '2MonthsOff.' Alternatively, there's a monthly subscription plan available if you'd like to give it a test run.
I'll be providing more in-depth information about these plans and their contents as we continue to share more charts and get the collaboration in full swing. For now, I don't want to overwhelm you. If at any point you want more information, Trading Alpha will remain linked below in the ‘Recommended Platforms And Tools’ section for your convenience.
I can’t thank all of you enough because the more love you share with me and this newsletter, the more I can do awesome stuff like this.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
2 more days. Only 2 more days to see if Bitcoin can break above the 200 MA on the weekly that we have been watching so closely.
Sunday can’t come fast enough.
Looking great so far.
As you know, there are effectively 3 key area at this point. $25,000, $28,500, $31,000. We were ranging between 25 and 28, now we are moving into the higher range. That’s generally good news.
You can see the three areas laid out on this chart, and that we are moving up into the higher range. Nice.
Also, a beautiful reaction off of the $28,500 area and the daily 200 MA as support.
What I find notable is the follow through after the fake ETF news on Monday. We now see real spot buying in anticipation of a future ETF approval. Today’s wick so far went ABOVE the one from last Monday, which to be is extremely positive.
I think the market is preparing for some good news.
Legacy Markets
Oil prices have surged to $90 per barrel, driven by fears that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas could escalate into a larger crisis in the Middle East. This tension is rippling through global financial markets, causing a decline in stock prices and a rise in bonds as investors seek more secure options. Specifically, the S&P 500 has dropped for four consecutive sessions and is nearing its 200-day moving average, a level that some analysts see as a potential precursor to further declines.
Wall Street's "fear gauge," the VIX, is hovering near its highest levels since March, and Treasury 10-year yields are pulling back from the 5% mark. Amidst this turmoil, gold prices have risen, and Bitcoin briefly crossed the $30,000 threshold. The uncertainty has led market analysts to suggest that investors are re-evaluating their strategies, shifting away from riskier assets.
Despite these challenges, there's a silver lining: the U.S. stock market has shown some resilience due to a largely positive third-quarter earnings season. According to Bloomberg data, 74% of the 86 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have beaten profit estimates. This offers a slight counterbalance to the otherwise grim market outlook fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and economic worries.
Corporate Highlights
American Express Co.’s third-quarter revenue and profit soared to record levels as the company continued to attract new cardholders willing to pay an annual fee for its premium products.
SLB, the biggest oil-services provider, posted its first sequential dip in North American sales since the start of 2021 as explorers ramp up spending in the Middle East and elsewhere in the world.
Solar stocks dropped after equipment-maker SolarEdge Technologies Inc. reported preliminary third-quarter sales that were far below the average analyst estimate,
Jazz Pharmaceuticals Plc is exploring strategic options including a potential sale, people with knowledge of the matter said.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 9:30 a.m. New York time
The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.3%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9%
The MSCI World index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0584
The British pound was little changed at $1.2148
The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $29,505.98
Ether rose 2.2% to $1,601
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.94%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.91%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.67%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $90.14 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,989.90 an ounce
The Language And Tone Have Changed
When was the last time you heard Gary Gensler mention, “The staff and commission are considering exchange-traded products,” concerning a Bitcoin spot ETF? The answer is never. I've come across some posts on Twitter suggesting that, in this clip, Gensler was accepting the ETFs, but that assertion is unequivocally inaccurate. I don't believe there's much room for interpretation in Gensler's statements aside from his accepting the practicality of them.
“We didn't appeal last Friday, that’s accurate. What we have in front of us is not one, but multiple, 8, or 10 filings that the staff and ultimately the commission are considering for exchange-traded products. For Bitcoin to be a security and then there would be an exchange-traded product that would trade on various stock exchanges. And those filings are in front of us, and I can't pre-judge any one of them, but there are 8 or 10 we are looking at.”
In other SEC-related developments, Elon Musk and Mark Cuban have teamed up to file a joint amicus brief calling for an overhaul of current agency proceedings. Although the brief is extensive, its core argument revolves around criticizing the SEC's practice of forum shopping (seeking to have a case heard in a particular court), reliance on insulated judges, and concealing information from the market, among other questionable tactics. Musk and Cuban are attacking the SEC from a big-picture perspective, this is not exactly ‘crypto news.’ However, they are exerting substantial pressure on the SEC across multiple aspects, a stance I wholeheartedly support.
London Stock Exchange Goes Down
For an unknown reason, all stocks on the London Stock Exchange but those in the FTSE 100, FTSE 250, and international order book were halted yesterday morning. Of course, the issue was fixed, but it goes to show that no markets are perfect. The LSE has been operational since the late 1800’s and still has hiccups. I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but I saw someone point out that exactly 36 years ago, the U.S. stock market had its worst day in history… coincidence? You decide. Also, for the record, the Bitcoin blockchain has never seen downtime since it began, just saying.
The SEC Capitulates Again
The SEC has voted to dismiss all charges with prejudice against CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen, meaning there will be no trial next year in April. Originally, the court was suing the defendants for aiding and abetting violations of the Securities Act—Stuart Alderoty, the CLO for Ripple had this to say, “This is not a settlement. This is a surrender by the SEC.”
I would like to agree with Stuart here and celebrate, but there’s a chance that the SEC made this decision to speed up the appeals process for the other issues that still need resolution ie. the sales of XRP to institutional investors directly. Regardless, the SEC is falling further back on its heels and this issue shouldn’t jeopardize the industry or Ripple in a serious way. Sooner or later, the pendulum will swing back in favor of the industry rather than the regulators.
How To Protect Your Funds During Wars & Conflicts
Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds, will share his experience on how to protect your portfolio during conflicts and wars. As always on Thursdays, Dan from The Chart Guys will offer his technical analysis of the markets.
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TheWolfOfAllStreets.io - The most comprehensive collection of everything I have going on. Plus over 100 blogs and other exclusive content.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Great news! Follow you both regularly.