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In This Issue:
Light The Torches
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Hashflation…
CoinTelegraph Owns Up To Its Mistake
FTX Is Clawing Back (Some) Funds
Did Roblox Join The XRP Army?
Bitcoin Will Get A Massive Pump When Spot ETF Is Approved
Light The Torches
It’s us vs. them. Bitcoiners vs. the world. We are right, they are wrong. Right?
The time has come to light your torches and sharpen your pitchforks. If you know someone who has an ever so slight difference in beliefs from you or who invests their money to the beat of their own drum now is a good time to go attack them and attempt to ruin their life. After all, they need to join our side because we are the only ones who are right. Convert them to our cause by any means necessary.
THIS IS A JOKE.
Us vs. them - sounds like a dystopian movie plot, doesn't it? But let's be real, there's a tribal mentality brewing in the crypto world, and it's not doing us any favors. Sure, we Bitcoiners have our qualms with the no-coiners, but it doesn't stop there. We've got Bitcoin versus the rest of the crypto universe.
Let's dissect this complex relationship, shall we?
I lean towards what I call the "Fidelity Frame of Mind." There is Bitcoin and there is everything else. In this view, Bitcoin is a store of value and digital gold, with a long history of surviving the worst that the world can throw at it. The rest of the crypto landscape? Think of it as a hotbed for tech investments. Wall Street has been echoing this sentiment about Bitcoin, but this does not undermine the value of other coins. They, too, are part of this ever-evolving asset class but with different flavors and functions.
Contrast that with the Bitcoin maximalists. For them, anything that's not Bitcoin might as well have "scam" written all over it. Let's put this argument to bed, folks - it's outdated. The crypto space is way too intricate to paint it with a broad Bitcoin-or-bust brush. Plenty of Bitcoiners enjoy dabbling in other blockchains and tokens. Guilty as charged - I'm one of them!
Altcoin enthusiasts are no different. Each camp thinks the other hasn't seen "the light," while those in the middle are supposedly lost souls. Newsflash: the truth usually isn't that extreme. No need to burrow down the Bitcoin rabbit hole or obsess over your pet altcoin until you go blind. Doing either is like staring at the sun - harmful and you'll miss out on everything else around you.
Those in the middle ground? They're the smart cookies. They celebrate different viewpoints and learn from mishaps. That's where the magic happens, the innovation and the wealth creation.
It might be hard to grasp, especially when Bitcoin seems to be the be-all and end-all. But take it from me, Ethereum remains an intriguing play, especially amidst the ETF hype. Agree or not, just keep your eyes open to the dazzling diversity of the crypto space. That's where the next bull run gains its steam.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Nothing has changed since yesterday. At this point I am watching the weekly 200 MA. The red line. I want to see a close above for the weekly candle.
Legacy Markets
Oil prices surged over 3% and stock markets dipped due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, following an explosion at a Gaza hospital. The situation worsened as Iran's foreign minister called for an embargo against Israel, causing investors to flock to safe-haven assets like gold. In the corporate sphere, Morgan Stanley's shares dropped due to missed revenue estimates, while Procter & Gamble saw gains after exceeding sales expectations. Amidst geopolitical unrest, United Airlines warned of profit hits due to suspended flights to Tel Aviv, and Nvidia is expected to decline. Earnings reports from Netflix and Tesla are highly anticipated for economic insights. European and Asian markets also experienced fluctuations, including a dip in China's property sector and unexpected inflation in the UK.
Key events this week:
Netflix, Tesla earnings, Wednesday
Federal Reserve issues Beige Book economic survey, Wednesday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and New York Fed President John Williams speak at separate events, Wednesday
Australia unemployment, Thursday
Japan trade, Thursday
China property prices, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index, Thursday
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speak at different events, Thursday
Japan CPI, Friday
China loan prime rates, Friday
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 7:32 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.6%
The MSCI World index fell 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0564
The British pound was little changed at $1.2195
The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.68 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $28,382.04
Ether rose 1.4% to $1,581.78
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.82%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.88%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.8% to $89.06 a barrel
Gold futures rose 1.2% to $1,958.20 an ounce
Hashflation…
I previously shared this image in a newsletter a few issues ago and have since dedicated some time to contemplate its implications. Hash rate is undeniably on a remarkable upward trajectory, but it's worth considering whether this surge is entirely what it seems. While Bitcoin's hash rate is commonly viewed as a measure of its security and decentralization, could it be possible that this exponential growth in hash rate doesn't necessarily correspond to an equal increase in Bitcoin's security and decentralization?
Newer miners tend to be more efficient than their predecessors, and given the ongoing AI boom, we can reasonably anticipate a rapid expansion in efforts to boost a unit’s hash rate. Consequently, although the total number of exahashes on the network has risen, so too has the exahashes of computing units worldwide that could potentially pose a threat to a 51% attack on the network.
For now, I'm labeling this phenomenon as 'hashflation' and intend to delve deeper into this concept by consulting with experts who possess more knowledge in this area. If I gather more insights, I'll be sure to revisit this topic.
CoinTelegraph Owns Up To Its Mistake
What transpired with the prices yesterday is said and done, so all that was really left for CoinTelegraph to do was be transparent about the events that unfolded, which they have now successfully done. In the article linked above, CoinTelegraph provides a line-by-line release of the internal discussions that took place within their organization regarding the fake post. While the names are redacted, the chat log is presented in its entirety, shedding light on the origins of the mistake. Within these exchanges, one of the employees made a legendary comment that I must share: “It would be a shame if... everybody started copying and pasting our content without verification.” We can only guess what was the hidden meaning behind the “...” but I can’t imagine it was a happy thought… perhaps, ‘you went to prison.’
FTX Is Clawing Back (Some) Funds
I won't believe any settlement news until the funds are actually deposited into the hands of creditors, but I'll continue to share any updates as they become available. The latest news indicates that creditors and debtors have agreed to a proposed plan that includes the following provision: “Customers who withdrew over $250,000 from the exchange within nine days of the bankruptcy will see their claims reduced by 15% of the withdrawn amount.” All things considered, this seems like a favorable deal if it goes through. To make it even more appealing, FTX.com and FTX.US customers are expected to recover 90% of their assets. If the plan is approved, there's a possibility that funds could be distributed by the end of the second quarter of 2022.
Did Roblox Join The XRP Army?
This news got out of hand, so let me clarify. BitPay, a crypto payment service, is in partnership with Xsolla, a company responsible for managing in-game payments in popular video games. Xsolla has now accepted XRP as a payment option, making it usable in games like Roblox and Smite. Stating that Roblox 'partnered with XRP' or 'integrated with XRP' is misleading and essentially untrue. As the bull run gains momentum, it's crucial to be extra weary of statements that may inaccurately suggest coins are forming ‘partnerships’ with well-known companies.
Bitcoin Will Get A Massive Pump When Spot ETF Is Approved
Fake news about approval of the spot ETF sent Bitcoin price up to $30,000 immediately. I am talking to the two most important ETF people in the world right now: Eric Balchunas & James Seyffart. Benjamin Cowen will join me to break down what will the Bitcoin price look like when the spot ETF is finally approved for real.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.