The Wolf Den #813 - The Speech To End All Speeches
Is this the greatest speech in crypto history?
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In This Issue:
The Speech To End All Speeches
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
FOMC Today
Market Mavericks - New Show!
Japan’s Largest Investment Bank Launches Bitcoin Fund
Brace For More Unjust SEC Attacks
The Ethereum ETF Is Picking Up Momentum
Interest Rates Are On Pause While Bitcoin Is On Sale | Macro
The Speech To End All Speeches
I have been immersed in crypto for over half a decade and have had my fair share of encounters with spectacular presentations and speeches. Occasionally, I've been moved, but it's a rare instance when I stumble upon something that sparks an intense jolt of passion and vision and shakes me to my core. Today was one of those rare moments.
The opening talk delivered by crypto OG Erik Voorhees at Permissionless II is a must-listen, not only for individuals who currently own or have contemplated owning cryptocurrency but for every inhabitant of our planet. It's simply that remarkable.
Attempting to cherry-pick the best excerpts from the speech is an impossible task, but out of affection for you all, I’ve diligently combed through the talk and isolated the sections that resonated with me the most. However, please don't regard my commentary as a replacement for watching the entire video; consider my comments as a valuable supplement instead.
Crypto: Why are we here? | Erik Voorhees Keynote | Permissionless II
The Speech.
Fair ladies and fellow gentlemen, my name is Eric Voorhees, lover of liberty, and founder of ShapeShift. Some call me a crypto OG, my girlfriend likes to call me the oldest man in crypto, and from time to time, I'm known for hunting down pudgy curly-haired scammers that over-index on acronyms, amphetamines, and abundant donations to Washington.
I was asked to give a little talk about why we're here, why we are in this industry, why we're in this place. It's an honor to have this opportunity, but first, I want to gather a little bit of information about you, the audience.
Raise your hand if you're here for free coffee. Lambos? Banks? Worldcoin Eye scanning?
Raise your hand if you’re here for rebellion. That’s why I am here.
Bitcoin invented permissionless money, and with the invention of smart contracts on Ethereum a few years later, we had all the tools to build an entirely permissionless financial system.
Not even cash is permissionless. Try moving $10,000 across the border.
You may not realize it, but what we are building is the economic defense of modern society against plunder and restriction by the state.
Permission is what the kindergarten child attains to go to the bathroom; it is not what the respectable man attains in his financial affairs. For if I may transact with you only by the good graces of those watching me from above, then I am something below. I am a subject. I'm not a man but a child. Farm animals perhaps is the better metaphor.
Crypto is our rebellion - it is a rebellion against a system that is unworthy of its authority.
We like to say that code is law, but that's a misnomer. Code is better than law. And this is the most important point that I'll make today. The traditional financial system is built on the rules of men rather than the rules of math, and society can do better.
Compare the Dodd-Frank Act, that detestable tome 2,300 pages long, which spawned thousands more pages across 400 new financial regulations, with Aave's lending contracts. Toward the achievement of orderly markets, which of these is more emblematic of an advanced civilization? And while some may not approve of the systems of order that we're building, then again no dinosaur ever approved of an asteroid.
Friends, try to see through those struggles and be grateful for every noble challenge that you face in your work, for you are alive and your work is important.
Wild and romantic, these words still define the heart of crypto.
Capital flows where it is respected. Like water, it flows where it may and as the permissions of the fiat system constrain and strangle, so our open decentralized alternative stands ready to receive it. True innovation is messy, sometimes veering in unhelpful directions and back again. But capital will flow to well-ordered decentralized finance as water flows indelibly to the sea, and both will happen naturally and both will happen without permission.
Thank you. [End of speech]
Many of you who closely follow my journey are aware that I recently had the privilege of attending Token2049 in Singapore. As a result of the enriching experience and the insights shared in this speech, my conviction has never been stronger.
We (you and I) find ourselves in an exceptionally fortunate era, where the ordinary individual has the chance to reshape the monetary system that we are born into and compelled to navigate. I am committed to making the most of this opportunity, and I earnestly encourage you to do the same. The future of money is permissionless; there's no alternative path forward.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin is struggling to break the 50 MA on the daily chart, just like yesterday. Since we know that was is happening in this part of the cycle is simply sideways chop and we are not looking to trade this, there are no surprises. Boring coin continues sideways, with small moves up and down to liquidate the few traders left.
I don’t expect much in the near term. Hopefully we get a surprise to the upside at some point.
We could see some volatility today with FOMC.
FOMC Today
European stocks increased, and the British pound dipped after an unforeseen slowdown in UK inflation, surprising traders ahead of the Federal Reserve's impending policy decision. Sterling's value dropped by 0.5% against the dollar, indicating that the Bank of England might soon conclude its rate hikes. UK's FTSE 250 index surged 1.5%, with interest rate-sensitive homebuilders driving the rise. Europe's Stoxx 600 also went up, breaking its three-day stagnation, while US equity futures also saw a rise.
August data showed a 6.7% year-on-year rise in Britain's Consumer Prices Index, the slowest in 18 months and below the anticipated 7%. This has led to doubts about the Bank of England's quarter-point rate increase, which was previously deemed a certainty. Francois Rimeu, a strategist, opined that although rates will rise, the hike will likely be moderate.
US Treasury yields declined, especially after both the five- and 10-year notes reached their highest since 2007. Later, the Federal Reserve is expected to halt its rate hikes, due to inflation slowdown, but might resume as early as November. Richard Flynn of Charles Schwab believes the Fed will adopt a more nuanced approach, with a potential hike later in the year.
In other news, Brent crude's prices fell slightly but remain close to a 10-month peak. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for crude, expecting it to reach $100 a barrel due to heightened global demand and OPEC+ supply restrictions. Bank of America's strategist, Savita Subramanian, has increased her target for the S&P 500 following its significant 2023 rally. She anticipates a roughly 3.5% increase from its recent closure. She also signaled that various indicators suggest a bullish market trend.
Key events this week:
Federal Reserve policy meeting followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference, Wednesday
Bank of Canada issues summary of its September policy meeting, Wednesday
Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
Bank of England policy meeting, Thursday
US leading index, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, Thursday
China’s Bund Summit, Friday
Japan CPI, PMIs, Friday
Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone PMIs, Friday
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 6:09 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%
The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0703
The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2376
The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.95 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $27,004.28
Ether fell 1% to $1,625.75
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.34%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.72%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 4.25%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $90.22 a barrel
Gold futures were little changed
Market Mavericks - New Show!
Every Thursday at 3 pm EST, Mike McGlone and I will join Gareth Soloway on Market Mavericks, a show dedicated to hardcore traders who love charts and market analysis. The first episode airs this Thursday and will be available to watch on Twitter and YouTube. I’ll make sure to share the link when it is posted.
Japan’s Largest Investment Bank Launches Bitcoin Fund
Japan's premier investment bank, Nomura, has announced the launch of a Bitcoin fund, marking its debut in a series of crypto investment products the firm aims to roll out. This fund, established by Nomura's digital assets division, provides long-only exposure and is registered as a mutual fund in line with the regulations of the Cayman Islands Regulatory Authority. While this is a pioneering product for Nomura, the bank has been a player in the crypto space for a while. As institutions increasingly venture into crypto, the next anticipated wave is the entry of nation-states, hinting at even more thrilling developments in the future.Brace For More SEC Attacks
Brace For More Unjust SEC Attacks
David Hirsch, the head of the SEC's Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit, has recently hinted at the SEC's increased enforcement efforts directed toward the crypto market. In his public statements, David mentioned that the SEC's regulatory scope goes beyond just Binance and Coinbase, as there are other actors within the industry who are also “breaching compliance.” These entities could include “brokers, dealers, exchanges, clearing agencies, or any other participants operating in this sphere.” Considering NFTs are in the crosshairs, I wouldn't be surprised to see some larger actions taken against entities such as OpenSea or Blur. It’s a shame the SEC isn't slowing down, but the good news is neither is crypto. Either way, if the SEC wants to play ball, it’s going to have to step up to the plate and take the heat.
The Ethereum ETF Is Picking Up Momentum
The crypto community loves to get excited about traditional finance giants filing for ETFs, but Grayscale is a crypto powerhouse that deserves recognition for all it has done in the space. Grayscale's involvement in the Ethereum ecosystem is a noteworthy development that is poised to accelerate the process and inspire more crypto and non-crypto entities to consider pursuing an Ethereum ETF.
I've emphasized this point previously, and I'll reiterate it: when compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is relatively young, yet the eventual arrival of an Ethereum ETF will have a transformative effect on the asset, much like jet fuel. While achieving this milestone might be more challenging for Ethereum, given the age gap between the two, Ethereum is progressing rapidly, and my outlook remains optimistic.
Interest Rates Are On Pause While Bitcoin Is On Sale | Macro
Macro Monday on Tuesday! Join Dave Weisberger and James Lavish as we break down what's going on in macro and crypto.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.