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In This Issue:
You Are Close To Success
Boring Bitcoin
The Bank Of Japan Is Schizo
tomi - Privacy, Anti-Censorship And Freedom Of Speech
Happy Birthday, Ethereum
Bald
Another Bank Collapsed
The Litecoin Halving Is Soon
Collaborative Finance & Applying Graph Theory To Money | Ethan Buchman, Cosmos
You Are Close To Success
Securing your assets from scams, attacks, and cyber breaches remains the paramount concern for crypto investors. However, a less talked about yet equally important issue comes in at a close second - steadfastly defending your investment conviction.
Let me emphasize, everyone - and I mean literally everyone - in this field is competing to sway your thoughts, trading decisions, and investments to predominantly serve their own agendas. Hence, the solid defense of your conviction becomes a cornerstone of your financial fortitude.
Countless times, I've observed highly astute investors or traders shaken out of advantageous positions or manipulated into risky ones, culminating in financial ruin - a sight that sends chills down my spine.
The narrative often develops like this: The victim starts absorbing an idea, cloaked in the garb of 'wisdom' or 'ingenuity.' Slowly, their belief in this perilous alternative starts overshadowing their once firmly held convictions. The unfortunate outcome is that an investor, without realizing it, sabotages their own best interests.
Here are some instances to illustrate what I'm talking about:
An OG Bitcoin investor frustrated with the bear market sells their entire position with the plan to buy back lower. The market never returns.
A conservative crypto investor who only owns Bitcoin and Ethereum feels FOMO strong enough to sell their positions for ‘promising’ altcoins. The altcoins underperform.
An investor with a strong track record of returns decides to experiment with leverage to amplify gains. The investor is wiped out.
A trader with a working system becomes bored and persuaded to try a new strategy that guarantees better returns. The plan doesn’t work.
The narratives presented here act as powerful warnings, underscoring the ramifications of letting someone else's perspectives eclipse your deeply-rooted convictions. The repercussions range from missed prospects to catastrophic financial setbacks, emphasizing the hefty price of deviating from one's core beliefs.
It's vital to arm yourself with well-informed counsel and perpetually evaluate even those you hold in the highest regard. While many seek insights from others, it's crucial to remember that true success requires us to rely on our own judgment and own up to our missteps. By steadfastly adhering to our values, we construct a bulwark against the seductions of shortcuts and misguided temptations.
For those of us still standing, our current position is the result of relentless effort and determination. I sincerely hope each of you enjoys the fruits of your labor. Offering guidance and support is my humble way of reciprocating the trust you've placed in me. Witnessing your success, shaped by your strong convictions and the modest guidance I've provided, remains my greatest reward.
Here's to a fantastic week, and I'm keeping my hopes high for a Bitcoin ETF in the near future.
Boring Bitcoin
Yawn.
Bitcoin remains boring, so much so that we need to zoom into the 4-hour chart to discuss price action.
Nothing has change on higher time frames. Bitcoin remains stuck between key levels on the weekly - $31,000 and $28,600. The daily lost the local range, which is also shown above on the 4-hour. Price has failed to close a single daily or 4-hour candle back in that range, so it’s hard to be particularly excited if you are looking at low time frames. The daily 50 MA is also now resistance rather than support, favoring a bit more downside.
Nothing to do here for now, unless you shorted the bottom of the range and are waiting for another drop.
Still watching $28,600.
The Bank Of Japan Is Schizo
Global equity markets are wavering as traders seek clarity on future interest rates from central bank statements. Heineken NV's shares dropped by 6.4% after revising its earnings forecast downward. Major companies like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. are set to announce earnings this week. European stocks and US equity futures remain consistent after the recent Nasdaq 100 rally, which increased by nearly 2% due to growing optimism about the global economy's stability.
ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at a possible rate increase, while in the US, Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis expressed a positive outlook on inflation, despite potential job losses and slower growth. Bond yields in Germany and the US increased, while the yen weakened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unexpected bond-purchase move. This decision was taken by the BOJ to manage a potential selloff after permitting yields to exceed the 0.5% cap.
Jane Foley from Rabobank noted that the BOJ's move aims to maintain capped yields, emphasizing the action was likely a technical correction rather than a policy shift. According to Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, US stock trends are mirroring 2019 patterns, one of the S&P 500's most prosperous years in the last decade. The benchmark is on track to record five months of consistent growth, a trend not seen since August 2021. Wilson believes the current rally in stocks is primarily driven by policy, similar to 2019.
Other stock movements saw Carvana Co. shares dip following Jefferies' bearish outlook, while MetLife Inc. saw a boost due to a potential purchase by Singapore's Great Eastern Holdings Ltd. Asian stocks, especially in China, are experiencing growth, spurred by anticipated government stimulus. Vey-Sern Ling of Union Bancaire Privee believes the Chinese government's supportive stance will translate to tangible stimulus actions.
Lastly, focus remains on Japan as the BOJ Governor, Kazuo Ueda, indicated the potential for more flexibility in the 10-year bond yield. This could be a precursor for broader changes in Japan's monetary policy, affecting global assets.
Key events this week:
Australia RBA rate decision, Tuesday
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, unemployment, Tuesday
UK S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Tuesday
US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Tuesday
China Caixin Services PMI, Thursday
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Thursday
UK BOE rate decision, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, productivity, factory orders, ISM Services, Thursday
Eurozone retail sales, Friday
US unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 10:02 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1032
The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 142.35 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1491 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2853
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $29,391.77
Ether rose 0.1% to $1,868.21
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.98%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.36%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.1% to $84.90 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,954.87 an ounce
tomi - Privacy, Anti-Censorship And Freedom Of Speech
I take meetings with projects on a regular basis, trying to keep my finger on the pulse of the crypto space. Rarely do I follow up. In the case of Tomi, we have had multiple meetings and I am now working with them on a potential brand ambassadorship. I have become smitten with their ethos and the people behind it. Here’s why:
Did you know that more than 2 billion people don’t have full access to the Internet? And in countries that label themselves as ‘free,’ governments and organizations take control of the domains they wish for their citizens to see. It’s a broken system that the little guy can do very little about - this is the reason why I am exploring tomi.
I like tomi because it is a web3 solution to web2 problems. Through tomi, the internet and its users can finally take back the power and reshape the freedoms we should be granted. In crypto terms, tomi is an alternative internet network controlled by the community through a DAO. Through tomi, you can use the tomi browser, the tomi DNS, and a bunch of other novel products that give real promise to web3.
“tomi's vision is to create a new internet that is a completely clean slate, one where giant companies do not control the information that reaches the people or the information that is collected about them. An internet where no one can control what will be said and what will be kept silent. A platform where people can freely and privately buy and sell cryptocurrency and government and corporate surveillance is impossible. tomi is a place where the citizens are the ones who decide what should and should not be censored, where the big media companies no longer determine what we can see and what we can't.”
To read more about tomi’s vision, click HERE or watch the video below.
Happy Birthday, Ethereum
A tad behind schedule, but that won't stop us from celebrating Ethereum's belated Birthday at the Wolf Den! Here's a fun fact to ponder: On Bitcoin's 8th birthday, it sported a market cap of a mere $16.65B. In stark contrast, Ethereum boasts a whopping $225B as of now. Admittedly, drawing a direct comparison might seem far-fetched given the exponential growth of the crypto space over the years. However, it provides a fascinating lens to gauge progress. And to think Ethereum was in its infancy, just 1.5 years old, when Bitcoin celebrated its 8th year! Oh, how time zips by. For those who appreciate a dash of nostalgia, I'veshared a celebratory note from the ETH team during its inception.
“A few minutes ago, many of you generated and loaded the Ethereum Genesis block, marking the inception of Frontier, the first Live release of the Ethereum project. The Dev team joins me in thanking each and everyone of you for your support during the past year and half. It’s incredible to see the progress that has taken place since that humble first commit on Christmas Eve 2013. The vision of a censorship-proof ‘world computer’ that anyone can program, paying exclusively for what they use and nothing more, is now a reality.”
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BALD
The latest trending coin, $BALD, linked humorously to Brian Armstrong's hair (or lack thereof), has seen a remarkable 40,000% return in just 48 hours. However, there's a twist: it can't be sold yet. Currently, Bald operates as a meme coin on BASE, which is Coinbase's fresh layer 2 network. The issue is there's no way to cash out because a bridge from Base hasn't been developed. This implies investors are essentially trapped, unable to realize their gains, and might stay that way if someone beats them to selling.
Although the expectation is that Base will provide an exit point in the future, for now, investors are left in limbo, hoping they'll be at the front of the queue when it's time to sell, which underscores the risk involved with Bald. There are murmurs suggesting that Bald is a strategy to drive liquidity to Base or that its creator has ties to cbETH or even Brian Armstrong. However, these are just speculations. Personally, it's hard to believe Brian would be directly involved, considering the potential negative optics, but the crypto world can be full of surprises.
Another Bank Collapsed
The Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas folded on July 29th, becoming the year's fifth bank to do so. The defunct bank, with its four branches, will now come under the umbrella of Dream First Bank, ensuring its customers face no losses. Financially speaking, this collapse has left a $54.2 million dent in the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF). As of March, the bank reported assets around $139 million and deposits close to $130 million. In essence, this situation can be distilled down to: Bitcoin could address this.
The Litecoin Halving Is Soon
A slew of optimistic mainstream articles has highlighted the Litecoin halving this week. Going against the grain, I sought out an article that offers a more pessimistic view. Come August 3rd, block rewards will decrease from 12.5 LTC to 6.25 LTC, signaling Litecoin's 3rd halving event. The article points to a diminishing Litecoin mining industry and notes a decline in its overall popularity and current social chatter. While I can't predict the future, the lack of significant updates from the Litecoin community is notable, and it raises concerns about the coin's trajectory. I'd be keen to hear groundbreaking news from the community, but there's a nagging feeling it might not materialize – navigating the crypto world is indeed challenging.
Collaborative Finance & Applying Graph Theory To Money | Ethan Buchman, Cosmos
Ethan Buchman, co-founder of Cosmos and a crypto-nerd-core-rapper, came to my show to discuss what's going on with Cosmos, what is collaborative finance, and how he wants to apply graph theory to finance.
In this episode with Ethan, we discussed:
Cosmos & Bitcoin
Crypto rap
Cosmos update
Collaborative finance
CoFi for people
Making blockchain user friendly
Interoperability vs one chain
DeFi
New world on blockchain
Timeline for mainstream adoption
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.