The Wolf Den #783 - Bitcoin Will Win The Presidential Election
RFK is just one pro bitcoin candidate...
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In This Issue:
Bitcoin Will Win The Presidential Election
Bitcoin Remains Uncorrelated
Is Doge The Global Reserve Currency Of The Future?
Stocks Continue To Skyrocket After FOMC
Sign Up For Meld
The NFT Marketcap At A Glance
The Fed Took A Hike
Worldcoin Paid Test Subjects Differently
“Saratoshi Nagamoto”
Doge To $1? Bitcoin To 50k? | David Duong (Coinbase) & Chris Inks
Bitcoin Will Win The Presidential Election
I love the crypto industry, but I often find myself frustrated with the day to day grind of following and reporting on the ins and outs. However, there are those occasional moments, like yesterday, when everything comes together beautifully, filling me with profound appreciation. The opportunity to host a presidential candidate who genuinely embraces Bitcoin is simply unbelievable; I am still pinching myself to ensure it's real.
Let me introduce you to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. If you're not familiar with him, he hails from a renowned family. He's the son of Robert F. Kennedy, a former U.S. Attorney General and New York Senator, and the nephew of John F. Kennedy, the 35th president of the United States. RFK Jr., as I'll call him to avoid any confusion, has had a distinguished career in law, politics, and writing. He joined a Twitter Space I hosted just yesterday.
Before we dive into the details of our chat, a quick flashback: RFK Jr. made headlines in the crypto space when he announced his presidential bid at the 2023 Bitcoin conference, skyrocketing to fame overnight. From that pivotal moment, he's championed the crypto industry, outlining forward-thinking policies that could mold our nation under his potential presidency. With this backdrop, let's delve into the key takeaways from our conversation.
The chat frequently ventured beyond just "Bitcoin and Freedom" - our interview's theme. But for this newsletter, I'm zoning in on the Bitcoin-centric discussions, highlighting some standout moments.
It's important to note that hosting this interview doesn't equate to a political endorsement. While I find merit in many of RFK Jr.’s ideas for the crypto sector, not all of his views resonate with my personal stance, a sentiment I likely would have with any politician. If more opportunities arise, I'll continue exploring how crypto factors into various campaigns. To that end, I will be hosting Mayor Francis Suarez on Monday, but that is a discussion for a different day.
Now, let's dive in.
Where It All Began
My orange pill moment was watching the Canadian trucker movement. The government was freezing the bank accounts of law-abiding citizens at the same time other restrictions were happening in Italy and China. We are seeing forms of control happening in the West too with Chase Manhattan Bank as the most recent example. It occurred to me that freedom of transaction is as important as freedom of expression and these incidents echo the importance of moving toward Bitcoin.
[In regards to backing the U.S. dollar with Bitcoin] My proposal is very modest, to make a small number of T-bills backed by hard assets. Something similar to what my uncle did. Unrestrained spending has created a massive risk for the economy. Gradually inserting new commodity reserve assets at the base may be a way to discipline the Fed and the market. My purpose is to rebuild the middle class in America
Crony capitalism and the lack of free markets is not a party issue. Money printing has created a huge concentration of wealth. The top dogs have gotten 10x richer while workers have basically stayed the same. We need to get the Fed out of Wall Street and Bitcoin is part of the process because it allows small investors to have an inflation-proof currency. That is part of freedom. Fiat currency is at the mercy of the system that is designed to strip wealth from workers, the poor, and the middle class and put it into the pockets of the super-rich.
BlackRock
Money laundering is a legitimate issue but most of the KYC and environmental issues are smokes screens toward Bitcoin. There is favoritism to BlackRock, Goldman, and friends on Wall Street. As soon as there is an approved Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock will transform the ETFs into CBDCs and enslave everyone there.
(For the record, Mr. Kennedy’s BlackRock comments are not something that I have seen supported with factual evidence. Maybe Mr. Kennedy knows something we don’t, but this sounds more like conspiracy and speculation rather than fact.)
What we did with Silicon Valley, we need to do with Bitcoin. There needs to be a suspension of capital gains taxes for Bitcoin. We want to avoid creating windfalls for BlackRock and Goldman. Maybe there will be a million-dollar cap on capital gains. For those that convert Bitcoin, you are doubled tax if you buy something. It incentives an exodus to drive the best thinkers out of the country. I want to keep them here in a better system.
RFK Jr. went on to discuss Bitcoin mining and environmentalism at length, but I decided to skip this to keep the most interesting parts here for you.
Final Comments
It is troubling to me that Bitcoin is treated as a commodity. When countries follow El Salvador, there will be pressure for countries to remove capital gains taxes. We need to encourage the use of Bitcoin amongst smaller investors and holders. We need to turn it into a currency where it can be used for transactions without being punished for it.
Bitcoiners are a neat breed. Of all the financial people I have met in my life that are entranced with making a big pile of money, Bitcoiners are different because they can make money while promoting freedom. Bitcoin is a symbol for freedom and currency for freedom. I feel a spiritual bond with you.
And the best part was the following…
Before I went to the BTC Miami conference, I received criticism for not owning Bitcoin. Right after that conference, I got a paycheck from the Monsanto case, I then bought 2 Bitcoin for each of my 7 children. Nobody can say I didn't put my money where my mouth is.
Hosting RFK Jr. was a privilege, and I'm eager to see what he and his team propose this election season. Early polling suggests RFK Jr. is rapidly gaining traction. Thus, it's crucial we pay close attention to his perspectives, given he might become the next U.S. president.
Best wishes to him, and a big thank you to all who tuned in.
You can listen to the full conversation below.
Bitcoin Remains Uncorrelated
While the stock market has put in a historic 13 straight days of gains (I still think the top is coming soon), Bitcoin has remained relatively boring, if not slightly bearish.
As you can see, price bounced a few hundred dollars after FOMC, but we still have a bearish retest of the range lows for now. If we start closing candles back in the range, this will look more like a deviation, which is what we saw last time price visited the range highs.
If you are a leverage day trader, the current price is a classic short. Not because price has to go down, but because you can set a tight stop as invalidation. Remember, with trading it’s about entering when you stand to lose the least when you are wrong.
I am not trading this, just watching. I would love to see this end up being a simple deviation.
Is Doge The Global Reserve Currency Of The Future?
No, obviously not. And all of the assumption about Doge and Twitter are ridiculous.
But sometimes it only takes a narrative to send things flying, and we all know that Doge can fly like no other.
As you can see on the chart, price has broken the downtrend (blue line) from 15 cents that started last November. That makes 15 cents a reasonable target for this move. More compelling is the breakout and retest of that same blue line, usually the “safest” entry for a trader.
Personally, my stops are around 6.9 cents, just below the obvious .70 cent level. My first target is around 9 cents, then 15 cents, then we will see.
Doge was one of the first assets I ever traded for significant profit in 2016/2017, so I have an affinity for this lovable meme. That said, it has precisely ZERO real value to me - it is simply an instrument for trading.
Stocks Continue To Skyrocket After FOMC
Global stocks rose, and the dollar fell as investors speculated the Federal Reserve might have concluded its 16-month policy-tightening phase. Strong earnings from prominent companies fueled this optimism, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index climbing 1% to a two-month peak. Despite the Fed's recent rate hike, many believe there won't be further increases soon, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the raised borrowing costs might be influencing inflation. Timothy Graf from State Street Bank & Trust Co. suggested the US economy is performing better than expected and markets have underestimated some major investment themes. Notably, many companies have exceeded analyst predictions this quarter. In particular, Meta Platforms Inc. saw a significant premarket rise after reporting promising results and revenue projections. The dollar has been declining, and as its support diminishes, it could weaken further, signaling a positive trend for other global assets. Meanwhile, US stocks have surged, with the Dow Jones marking its longest winning streak since 1987. The US economy's upcoming quarterly data is predicted to reveal a slight slowdown in its growth rate.
Key events this week:
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
BOJ rate decision, Friday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1% as of 10:54 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1.3%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1132
The Japanese yen was little changed at 140.11 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1493 per dollar
The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2969
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $29,553.66
Ether rose 0.2% to $1,885.08
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.87%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.48%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.30%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.9% to $83.68 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,974.92 an ounce
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The NFT Marketcap At A Glance
I came across a fascinating time-lapse of the NFT market on Twitter and felt compelled to share it with you. As with most markets, the distribution of wealth leans heavily towards the top. When it comes to NFTs, it's primarily about Punks, Apes, and the rest. For those invested in NFTs, once you've read through this letter, circle back and click on the image to watch the video.
The Fed Took A Hike
At the last FOMC decision in early May, Jerome Powell hinted that the tightening cycle might be winding down. However, the Fed recently chose to increase rates by 25 basis points. Powell made some noteworthy comments during this decision: “I don't see inflation back at 2% until about 2025. The staff are no longer forecasting a recession and it's possible we’d raise in September if the data warrants it.”
Ok. I think we have all had enough of analyzing Powell.
Worldcoin Paid Test Subjects Differently
Hong Kong users of the eye-scanning crypto project are reportedly earning rewards nearly four times greater than participants in other regions. For instance, test subjects in Indonesia were compensated $15 for fulfilling the same criteria that garnered higher rewards in other countries. While there's no official explanation for this disparity, I speculate it might be linked to the varying rates of crypto adoption and income levels in the respective countries.
“Saratoshi Nagamoto”
If "Saratoshi Nagamoto" was on your 2023 Bingo card, go ahead and mark that off. It's astonishing how uninformed some of our elected officials appear to be, though it's sadly not entirely unexpected. Can we genuinely rely on lawmakers when they seem so disconnected from current events? I doubt it.
Doge To $1? Bitcoin To 50k? | David Duong (Coinbase) & Chris Inks
David Duong, the Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, along with Chris Inks from Texas West Capital, delves into the recent developments in the cryptocurrency sector, analyzing their influence on the valuation of Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and other digital assets.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.