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In This Issue:
The Bitcoin Rich List
Bitcoin’s Bear Flag
Earnings and FOMC To Rock The Market?
Bitcoin Reaches 800,000 Blocks
The Only ETF Timeline That Matters
Who Is Behind Worldcoin?
This BlackRock Study Is Bullish
Eyeballs For Sale | Is Worldcoin The Next Big Thing In Crypto? | Seth For Privacy & Big Cheds
The Bitcoin Rich List
The Bitcoin Rich List is a fascinating tool. I've discussed it here before, but today I want to dive in deeper because there's a lot to learn from it. Instead of just talking about it, let's also look at an image to get a better idea.
At first glance, I know the table can be a little confusing, so I will briefly explain it below. If you already know how to read the table, then skip this bulleted section.
The first two columns, “Balance, BTC” and “Addresses” are self-explanatory.
The third column, “% Addresses (Total)” can be a little confusing. Essentially, the first percentage indicates the total percent of addresses that exist in that balance, and the second percentage indicates a running total percent of the addresses accounted for in each subsequent line.
If the running total percentages confuse you, try using this statement in your head: 100% of the Bitcoin addresses exist at this balance or greater, and then 92.6% of the Bitcoin addresses exist at this balance or greater…
Or, start at the bottom and you will notice that the running percentage stacks the previous amounts.
The fourth and fifth columns, “Coins” and “USD,” are self-explanatory.
The final column follows the same structure as the third column.
Now we get to the fun part, which is interpreting what the table is really saying.
25% of Bitcoin addresses hold between 0.0001 and 0.001 Bitcoin
Most addresses exist in the 0.0001 to 0.001 range.
Over 50% of Bitcoin addresses hold .0001 Bitcoin and below.
Addresses with balances below 0.01 BTC (almost 50% of addresses) collectively hold about .03% of the total coins.
Owning .1 Bitcoin puts you in the 91st percentile of owners.
Owning 1 whole Bitcoin puts you in the 98th percentile of owners.
0.03% (balances greater than 100 BTC) of addresses hold about 59% of the total coins.
The largest amount of Bitcoin exists in the 1,000 to 10,000 wallet range.
23% of the Bitcoin supply sits in wallets that hold between 1,000 and 10,000 coins.
2,017 addresses account for 39.2% of the supply.
Only 4 addresses hold somewhere between 100,000 and 1,000,000 coins.
Does your brain hurt?
One standout fact about the Bitcoin Rich List is that holding just 0.1 Bitcoin places a wallet in the top 91% of all addresses. Even owning a single Bitcoin catapults one to the 98th percentile. While these stats may shift with market dynamics, I'm fairly confident that holding between 0.1 to 1 BTC will always be a mark of distinction in the upper percentiles.
Here's the thing: it's becoming increasingly challenging to own even a tenth of a Bitcoin, largely due to its limited supply. Just imagine the scenario when big institutions step in. Large asset managers will cater to wealthy individuals wanting significant stakes, which, given Bitcoin's rarity, might mean owning relatively small amounts.
Looking ahead, it's conceivable that owning just one Bitcoin could put you in the elite 99th percentile or even the 99.9th over time. Holding 0.1 Bitcoin could soon be seen as a significant achievement. While it's tempting to wish for more, remember that most of us, myself included, always desire just a bit more.
My two cents? Take pride in your current holdings. If your goal is to acquire more Bitcoin, stay focused. Most of the world hasn't yet grasped Bitcoin's importance or the concept of true hard money. Simply by owning any Bitcoin, you're already ahead of the majority.
Bitcoin’s Bear Flag
The price of Bitcoin has been steady since the drop, which is usually a sign of bearish consolidation. As you can see, price is forming a bit of a bear flag (does not matter unless it confirms by breaking down), floating up slightly on decreasing volume. Each small attempted push up has resulted in a long wick up, which is a sign that bears are in control.
My bias is still for a drop to at least the $28,600 area, although the bear flag would target a bit lower (high $27,000s). In the grand scheme of things, those are relatively close prices.
Earnings and FOMC To Rock The Market?
Global stocks faced turbulence on Wednesday, with eyes on the Federal Reserve's impending policy actions. Despite signals of an economic slowdown from major European and American corporations, European stocks dipped after a six-day rise. LVMH's 4.5% decline led the luxury sector downward, while the mining sector was hit by Rio Tinto Group's profit drop. In contrast, Rolls Royce surged by 25%.
In the U.S., the Nasdaq 100 index futures experienced pressure, with Microsoft declining nearly 4%. However, Alphabet Inc. enjoyed a 7% boost following strong revenue results. Aarthi Chandrasekaran of Shuaa Asset Management noted on Bloomberg TV that a slowdown in corporate earnings and economic growth was likely, but not enough for a full rate reduction in 2023.
The U.S. consumer confidence index reached a two-year high on Tuesday, and the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points. The Dow Jones has been on a 12-day rise, the longest in over six years. Globally, the IMF predicts a 3% GDP growth for 2023, up from its April forecast of 2.8%.
Asian markets remained cautious, with Hong Kong tech stocks down over 1%. Lastly, the dollar index and oil prices both retreated slightly.
Key events this week:
US new home sales, Wednesday
FOMC rate decision, Fed Chair Powell news conference, Wednesday
China industrial profits, Thursday
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
BOJ rate decision, Friday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% as of 9:49 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1072
The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 140.37 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.1514 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2908
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $29,226.61
Ether fell 0.4% to $1,854.67
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.88%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.45%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.28%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.5% to $83.24 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,971.71 an ounce
Bitcoin Reaches 800,000 Blocks
It's truly remarkable that since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has clocked 800,000 blocks. What's more, in roughly 40,000 blocks, we'll witness Bitcoin's 4th halving event, slashing the block rewards from 6.25 BTC down to 3.125 BTC. And if I've got my calculations right, by around 2027, Bitcoin should be celebrating its 1,000,000th block. Curious, isn't it? Where do you reckon the price of Bitcoin will stand in 2027? Here's a stimulating perspective: Could Bitcoin's value somehow be proportional to the number of blocks on its chain?
The Only ETF Timeline That Matters
BlackRock may have ignited a new ETF competition, but it's Cathie Wood’s ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF that remains at the forefront of the SEC's agenda. Yet, there's a chance Grayscale could overshadow all by winning its lawsuit against the SEC and gaining approval for an ETF conversion ahead of the rest. Such an outcome could be a significant boost for the industry, as Grayscale's success might pave the way for other filings.
There are also some unpredictable scenarios: Grayscale could win the lawsuit without gaining ETF approval, or the SEC might give the green light to all the ETFs simultaneously. A part of me hopes to see a seasoned crypto asset manager clinch the first approval, while another part envisions a grand celebration with all filers getting approved together. Whatever route the SEC takes in approving the ETFs, it's bound to be a positive step forward.
Who Is Behind Worldcoin?
Curious to know who the financial backers are behind Worldcoin? I have the answers.
If you want to explore this more, click the link HERE, and select “Funds and Backers.”
Tier 1: a16z, Blockchain Capital, Coinbase Ventures, and Multicoin Capital (series C, amount raised = $115M)
Tier2: 1confirmation, Bain Capital Crypto, CoinFund, DCG, Distributed Global, Hashed Fund, Hypersphere Ventures, Kenetic Capital, and Variant (funding round, amount raised = $100M)
Tier 3: Apollo Capital and Blockchange Ventures
Tier 4: Day One Ventures and Khosla Ventures
Tier 5: Fifty years
Others: Reid Hoffman, SBF, and 3AC
This BlackRock Study Is Bullish
The image that circulated on Twitter yesterday didn't stir the same excitement in me as it did for many. True, it's from BlackRock, but they aren't adopting this strategy or recommending it to investors. It's likely research from BlackRock exploring high-return strategies. I doubt an 85% Bitcoin allocation aligns with BlackRock's risk tolerance at all.
Eyeballs For Sale | Is Worldcoin The Next Big Thing In Crypto? | Seth For Privacy & Big Cheds
The Worldcoin token has begun trading on various exchanges, causing a stir with its potential to redefine digital identity. Today, we will delve into understanding what Worldcoin is and how it may impact your privacy. Joining me is a foremost privacy expert - Seth For Privacy, along with renowned market analyst, Big Cheds, to discuss the financial implications.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.