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In This Issue:
This Subtle Trend Is Killing Our Reputation
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The Fed Is Hiring…
Don't Bet On Hamsters
Twitter’s Unwind Or A New Beginning?
Eye Scans For All! Worldcoin Launches.
Revolutionizing The Film Industry With Blockchain | Leo Matchett, Decentralized Pictures
This Subtle Trend Is Killing Our Reputation
Here we go again with the news being as dry as old bread. So, I've been doing some thinking to find a fresh angle. Good news - I've found something interesting.
Ever wondered why some new online platforms, even if they're not originally about crypto, start off by adopting big names like Bitcoin and Ethereum but also throw in some older, outdated cryptos?
If you haven't noticed this trend, let me lay it out with a few examples I've come across recently:
Customers in the US (except Hawaii) can buy, sell and hold four different cryptocurrencies on Venmo: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash.
Customers in the U.S. and U.S. Territories (excluding Hawaii) can transact with 4 different Cryptocurrencies on PayPal: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Bitcoin Cash.
Start trading Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, and Ethereum Classic – you don’t even need to set up a crypto wallet. (SoFi)
US users can transfer, send and receive Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, and Tron. (Webull)
With TradeStation Crypto, traders in approved states and countries can trade Bitcoin (BTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and Ripple (XRP).
UK’s digital challenger bank Revolut allows customers to buy, sell, and transact with five cryptocurrencies — Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and (XRP).
US users can transfer, send and receive Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, Stellar, and Tron. (eToro)
Some platforms have shifted their strategies over time, but there's an undeniable trend where many, especially those not originally in the crypto space, seem to adopt older or less relevant coins. This move is perplexing, especially when we're in a rapidly evolving industry. Though I aim to be objective, it's evident that a few of these coins seem out of sync with crypto's foundational values.
This leads to a key question: Are these companies including these coins (outside of BTC and ETH) because it's just what's been done traditionally? Or do these particular coins have strong marketing arms and networks that push them to the forefront? While it's hard to pin down an exact answer, it seems like a combination of both. Notably, there aren't many prominent figures in the crypto sphere championing these coins beyond their core teams.
It's possible that these coins are included because they're perceived as "safe" bets, less likely to be labeled as securities. I recall Gensler categorizing many of these as commodities before his tenure at the SEC.
Speaking candidly, it seems the crypto landscape can be condensed primarily to four major coins: BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC. Time and again, they've showcased their utility and resilience. While there are other coins with distinct features, these four stand out for their sustained relevance. The others, to a degree, seem more speculative.
For those curious about potential up-and-comers in the altcoin world, a few names stand out in the current cycle: Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, Uniswap, and Lido.
It's concerning to see platforms with limited crypto expertise inadvertently misdirecting newcomers. It's our collective responsibility in the crypto industry to provide clearer guidance. It's disheartening, for instance, to see newcomers being steered towards older tokens like BCH.
This ongoing trend might be a sign of the industry's maturation phase, but its impact is tangible. The future could see a decline in the relevance of these older coins, with platforms eventually removing them. While corporations might chalk it up as a learning curve, the individual investors are often the ones who feel the pinch, a recurring theme.
I'm optimistic about the trajectory of the crypto realm, yet it's clear there are hurdles ahead. My intent in highlighting these points is to foster a more informed community. Here's to a productive week, and let's keep driving the industry forward!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin had another extremely boring weekly close, but then opened the week by finally breaking down. As you know, I have had no interest in Bitcoin until it reached $28,600, and price just bounced slightly above that for now. I am also watching the red 200 weekly MA below. I have been anticipating this breakdown and drop now for weeks, so no surprised. The consistent rejections and wicks above $31,000 showed us what we needed to know, alongside bearish overbought divergence on the daily etc. The signs were all pointing to a correction.
Sometimes you have to go down to go up.
Price is breaking down from the range, finally. But the day is not over. Bulls want to see a close back in the red range, which would offer a nice wick down and indication that liquidity has been engineered for a move up. As you can see, the Daily 50 MA offered perfect support on this move down. This was the first retest of it as support since it broke as resistance a month ago. That could be the bottom of this move, as it is only $300 above the “obvious” $28,600 area discussed on the weekly chart. Usually price does not perfectly tap and obvious area - it either gets front run or nukes through for more liquidity.
RSI is now trending towards oversold, so my gut says we eventually get there before a major move up. That could line up well with a bit more correction. It is currently at 43.
If the day closes below the red range, you would expect more retracement.
Zooming in to the 4-hour, bulls have about an hour left to close back in the range, which is possible. This would be a great sign.
You can see we have a decent volume spike here, but nothing compares to the last times we have visited the range highs and lows, which I have circled above. The volume on all of those moves was MUCH larger. You can interpret that either way - that bulls are exhausted here and ran out of buying steam, or that bears are not willing to push hard. Choose your narrative, but it’s clear this area is not as interesting as it was before.
Legacy Markets
European bonds rose while the euro dipped against the dollar due to concerns from declining manufacturing and service measures, sparking worries about the global economy's stability. Investors are apprehensive at the beginning of a week filled with critical central bank policy decisions and corporate earnings. This is due to concerns about further interest rate hikes and their potential impact on economic growth. The euro area's private sector saw a more significant contraction than expected in July, affecting the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision.
The euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar as a result. German 10-year bond yields, representing the euro-area, decreased, and European stocks showed mixed results. Spanish stocks, in particular, faced challenges due to unresolved election results. Market watchers anticipate both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hike interest rates, with close monitoring of potential further increases.
US stocks saw little change, with tech companies experiencing sales drops after less than stellar results. In Europe, some companies like Philips saw stock plunges, while others like Ocado Group Plc witnessed increases. In the US, Mattel Inc. benefited from the success of its Barbie-themed movie.
Major US companies like Alphabet Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp., and Meta Platforms Inc. are set to release their reports, and Asian investors are closely watching companies like Samsung Electronics Co. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro region fell below the growth threshold, dropping further than economists had anticipated.
Last week's data already raised concerns about the Chinese economy. However, other Asian markets, like Japan, are currently experiencing a boost. Lastly, in commodities, oil prices saw a slight decrease after its fourth consecutive weekly rise.
Key events this week:
US Conf. Board consumer confidence, Tuesday
US new home sales, Wednesday
FOMC rate decision, Fed Chair Powell news conference, Wednesday
China industrial profits, Thursday
ECB rate decision, Thursday
US GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
BOJ rate decision, Friday
Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence, Friday
US consumer income, employment cost index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 9:42 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1068
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 141.50 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 7.2124 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2812
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $29,768.5
Ether fell 1.1% to $1,871.58
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.82%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.41%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.20%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.3% to $80.84 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
The Fed Is Hiring…
If you happen to be in the market for a job building destructive financial tools, the Fed is hiring! According to the official job post, “the Federal Reserve System (FRS) seeks a technologist to perform central bank digital currency (CBDC) research and development.” To me, this sounds like the Fed is more focused on hiring a candidate that can build their weapons of mass destruction rather than research them.
The first two requirements to land the job are the following:
“Bachelor’s degree with concentration in Computer science, Management information systems or comparable technical field, or equivalent experience.”
“Hands-on programming experience developing production applications; C++/ Python/AWS experience preferred.”
The requirements are then followed by this statement:
“You will engage directly with management, other developers on the team, development operations teams, and vendors to ensure the Federal Reserve is well-positioned to design, develop, and implement technology to support a CBDC as may be required by the Board of Governors.”
Don't Bet On Hamsters
It's kind of wild that I'm writing about hamsters, but that's where we're at! Over the weekend, hamsters had their moment. A new site, Hamsters.gg, emerged recently, letting users bet on hamster races. And yes, there's a related crypto token because of course there is. But here's the twist: there are rumors that the races might not be genuine. Some folks suggest that they just keep changing the hamster names and replaying the same race footage. My advice? Be wary of getting scammed by anything wrapped up in cute fur. Maybe it's a good idea to stick with the tried-and-true Bitcoin.
Twitter’s Unwind Or A New Beginning?
Elon's vision of turning Twitter into an "all-in-one" platform is becoming clearer. The iconic blue bird logo we've known will be replaced with "X" this weekend. One can't help but wonder if Elon's fascination with the letter "X" is part of a bigger scheme or just his personal branding style.
With the pace things are moving, if you type X.com into your browser, you're taken straight to Twitter. Whether or not you're a fan of this rebrand, the new 'X' (or Twitter) is ahead of the curve compared to other social media platforms in terms of intellectual content. This makes me hopeful about its future direction. I genuinely wish 'X' all the best, even though referring to it as 'X' feels a bit odd right now.)
Eye Scans For All! Worldcoin Launches.
Worldcoin, co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, released its ecosystem token on July 24. The project aims to address income inequality and online identity verification and has received mixed reactions, with some applauding its vision and others deeming it unsettling. Worldcoin introduced the World ID, a digital passport stored on users' phones, to verify human users without revealing personal data. The project also launched a gas-free crypto wallet for verified humans. While user data isn't stored, a proof is generated to confirm a user's human status. As the token was introduced, major crypto exchanges like Binance and Bybit announced listings. However, a counterfeit Worldcoin token was flagged for fraudulent activity. While the initiative has supporters, critics like Jack Dorsey have voiced concerns about corporations' influence on the global financial system. Worldcoin's World ID project garnered over 2 million sign-ups by July 14, with Altman aspiring for 2 billion users. The project secured $115 million in May for its decentralized identification system, leveraging AI to offer a decentralized online protection solution.
Revolutionizing The Film Industry With Blockchain | Leo Matchett, Decentralized Pictures
Leo Matchett is the co-founder of Decentralized Pictures - a startup trying to disrupt the movie industry by giving control of what to film to the audience. They have already produced movies with Kevin Smith and Steven Soderberg. In this episode, we dive into what Leo’s team is building, why they chose to do it with blockchain, and much more!
In this episode with Leo, we discussed:
Decentralized Pictures
Why use blockchain?
Involvement of famous directors
The goal
Mining in the studio
Other projects
Regulation
The tech behind Decentralized Pictures
Why non-profit
Follow Leo & DCP
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.