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In This Issue:
Anything Is Possible On This Platform…
Sweep The Lows, Johnny - Bitcoin Analysis
Is Inflation Topping In The UK? Legacy Markets
OpenSea Isn’t Open For Gambling
Presidential Candidates Are Making Big Crypto Promises
Introducing The Torres Doctrine
Gary Gensler Is Disappointed That He Can't Break The Law! | What's Next For Bitcoin
Anything Is Possible On This Platform…
In an otherwise quiet crypto landscape, today offers an opportunity to dive deeper into Polymarket, a platform I've only touched upon previously. Launched in 2020, Polymarket remains an intriguing, yet divisive site that, despite its growing user base, remains somewhat obscure to the mainstream audience.
So, let’s delve in.
For the uninitiated, Polymarket operates as a dynamic marketplace, enabling users to speculate on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. While the idea itself is captivating, it's the mechanics behind Polymarket that are interesting. The platform leverages smart contracts to facilitate the creation, trading, and conclusion of these prediction markets.
When a new prediction market emerges on Polymarket, a smart contract takes root in the blockchain. This contract outlines the market's parameters, including potential outcomes, timeframes, and related trading details. Furthermore, this contract safeguards participants' funds, ensuring market authenticity.
A glance at Polymarket reveals a diverse array of markets, spanning contentious subjects to the more obscure or specialized. To illustrate, with just a few clicks, you might juxtapose the opening weekend earnings of a Barbie movie against the potentiality of an incident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility. Truly, it’s a testament to the variety of our modern world.
One commendable feature of Polymarket is its relevancy to contemporary crypto trends. For instance, did you know Polymarket enthusiasts currently assign a 12% likelihood to Binance becoming insolvent by 2024? Indeed, Binance’s financial stability has become a tradable market on this platform. For a clearer understanding, consider the following specifics.
Using the Binance scenario: a $100 wager, if correct, could yield a 733% profit, netting you $833.33 for a 'Yes' bet, or a 12.35% gain totaling $112.36 for a 'No' bet. Understandably, these figures fluctuate, but as time dwindles, the 'Yes' and 'No' probabilities will respectively gravitate to 100% and 0%, settling the contract.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Polymarket. A recent controversy erupted when the platform allowed users to speculate on the fate of a missing submarine. With the market titled, “Will the missing submarine be found by June 23?” it saw $2.3m in transactions. This led to an uproar on social media, epitomized by a tweet reading, “What stage of capitalism is investing in someone’s death?”
Polymarket grappled with legal issues when, last January, they agreed to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty to the CFTC, attributed to licensing and registration lapses. Although they sought to rectify this by liaising with regulatory agencies, the incident beckons introspection on gambling ethics and the prospective direction of this sector.
While Polymarket's trajectory remains ambiguous, I'm inclined to believe 2024 might be a big year. Political subjects, undoubtedly the platform's forte, will be abundant given the impending political season. Although I've abstained from using Polymarket, it could become a player in the future.
To be CRYSTAL clear, I was not paid by Polymarket, I do not KNOW anyone at Polymarket and Polymarket has no idea that I am writing this intro. I simply find the platform interesting and worth giving a closer look.
Sweep The Lows, Johnny - Bitcoin Analysis
I had the opportunity to make a Karate Kid reference, and I took it! So why did I mention “sweeping the lows?” Here you go.
I was watching for the low of the range to be swept and Bitcoin did not disappoint. Just like when we saw price hit the top of the range and get rejected, we saw the bottom of the range tapped, with a small wick through and then a nice bounce.
For now Bitcoin remains sideways, but the question is this - did bulls find enough liquidity below the range for a move to the top and then a breakout? Or do we need to see price drop a bit further to really get buyers interested?
Time will tell, but if you were trading this on lower time frames, buying those lows was a great move.
My gut still says we go a bit lower…
Is Inflation Topping In The UK? Legacy Markets
The pound depreciated after a more-than-expected slowdown in British inflation, prompting speculations on the Bank of England's future interest rate hikes. As a result, global bonds experienced a rally. In June, the UK's Consumer Prices Index was 7.9% higher than the previous year, down from May's 8.7%. This was the first unexpected drop in five months and was lower than economists' 8.2% prediction. Consequently, the pound dropped 0.9% against the dollar. Two-year UK government bonds' yield also dropped significantly.
Stocks in the UK and Europe showed positive growth. Real estate stocks, sensitive to rate changes, led gains in Europe, with UK homebuilders experiencing the most substantial surge since 2008, fueled by optimism regarding less aggressive interest rate hikes.
Barclays strategist Emmanuel Cau commented on the relief brought by the weaker-than-expected inflation figures and the potential for a powerful short covering due to investors' current bearish stance on the UK.
In individual stock movements, luxury group Kering SA's stocks rose with the announcement of the Gucci brand head's departure. Aston Martin saw a boost after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded the carmaker, while Volvo Group experienced a decline despite its earnings beat.
In the US, Wall Street stocks remained consistent, with strong results from Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley. Euro-area inflation accelerated more than initially reported in June, reinforcing the expectation of an interest rate hike.
Despite positive inflation news from the UK, global central banks' tightening campaigns to control prices might be winding down. Key US companies like Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and Tesla are set to release results.
In Asia, shares in Hong Kong and mainland China lagged, with the offshore yuan weakening. The market remains pessimistic about China's economic outlook, awaiting potential measures from an upcoming Politburo meeting.
European mining stocks dropped as Rio Tinto Plc reported decreased iron ore shipments to China, reflecting China's economic recovery challenges. The yen also weakened due to the Bank of Japan Governor's remarks on maintaining monetary easing.
Key events this week:
Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
US housing starts, Wednesday
China loan prime rates, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
Japan CPI, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% as of 10:14 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
The euro was little changed at $1.1235
The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 139.74 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.5% to 7.2285 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2938
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $29,950.61
Ether rose 0.7% to $1,907.4
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.75%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.34%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined 17 basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
Brent crude rose 0.7% to $80.18 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
OpenSea Isn’t Open For Gambling
Nothing is quite as satisfying as when a randomly chosen intro perfectly matches the unfolding story of the day. Today's tale revolves around Ether.Fi, an emerging NFT project that recently launched a series of NFTs underpinned by staked ether. The initial reception was explosive, with all 3,000 NFTs being minted within a mere 24 hours. However, in an unexpected twist, OpenSea delisted the project without prior notice.
Amidst rising concerns and queries, OpenSea's response was clear-cut: the platform "doesn’t allow NFT collections that 'carry out any financial activities subject to registration or licensing. When we identify collections or content that contravene our Terms of Service, we employ various measures, ranging from delisting collections to, on rare occasions, banning accounts."
But this explanation didn't sit well with the CEO of Ether.Fi. He voiced his frustration by stating, “OpenSea has essentially operated an unlicensed casino where individuals partake in potentially devastating gambling, dropping millions on images of monkeys and the like. They seem perfectly fine with this, yet listing a collection that offers real utility is deemed unacceptable simply because it's functional.”
So, where do you stand on this? Did OpenSea act justly, or should they have thought twice before delisting the NFTs?
Presidential Candidates Are Making Big Crypto Promises
Florida Governor Ron Desantis has certainly established clear stances regarding crypto during his presidential campaign. Just recently, amid the buzz surrounding Ripple, Desantis declared, “If I am the president, on day one, we will eliminate central bank digital currency. It's over. Finished. It won't materialize in this country.”
For those curious about the likelihood of Desantis upholding such a promise, his actions in Florida provide some insights. In 2021, he proposed that the state's financial services department begin accepting state fees in cryptocurrency. Furthermore, this past May, he enacted a law in Florida that bans the use of federal CBDCs as a recognized form of money.
The upcoming 2024 presidential race appears encouraging for voters from both major political parties who are seeking a pro-cryptocurrency candidate to endorse.
Introducing The Torres Doctrine
The displayed image features a letter penned and endorsed by Rep. Ritchie Torres (not to be mistaken with Judge Torres) addressed to Gary Gensler. In the letter, Rep. Torres contends that there's a clear guideline set for altcoins in relation to securities, suggesting that they “shall bear the name Judge Torres.” Several prominent Congress members have backed this letter, aiming to counteract Gensler's approach of regulation through enforcement. Personally, I'd love a front-row seat to see Gary's reactions to these letters as they arrive – it's an experience I'd willingly pay for.
Gary Gensler Is Disappointed That He Can't Break The Law! | What's Next For Bitcoin
Join Bruce Fenton and Tradeboi Carti as we discuss the future of Bitcoin.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.