The Wolf Den #766 - Are We Still Early?
I think so…
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In This Issue:
Are We Still Early?
Crypto Town Hall Interviewed 3AC
Coinbase Earnings Date & Event Calendar
OKX Signs A Huge Deal
Were Economists Wrong? The Economy Is Not Collapsing. Market Rally | Macro Monday
Are We Still Early?
Bitcoin’s market capitalization is roughly $601 billion. Although it may not seem like it, we are absolutely “still early.”
When compared to the total value of financial assets on the planet, Bitcoin is like the Earth sitting next to the sun. Our beloved coin is like a distant star, barely visible to the naked eye.
Here are a few comparisons to put the size of Bitcoin in perspective.
Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Bernard Arnault could team up and buy the entire supply of Bitcoin.
All of it.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gates may hate Bitcoin, but together, the two could buy a third of the supply. There are quite a few billionaires in the same boat.
About 2,750 billionaires control 3.5% of the world’s wealth. Any combination of them could dominate the entire market without noticing the money is gone.
Bitcoin is a blip, a couple of basis points in the grand scheme of things.
What about institutions? Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway with a market capitalization of $746B could buy the entire Bitcoin supply and then most of the Ethereum supply.
Not impressed? BlackRock has everyone beat because they manage almost $10 trillion. They make Warren Buffet look poor. BlackRock has enough capital to comfortably buy the Bitcoin supply 15 times.
The top 10 largest money managers have over $30 trillion in combined AUM. Bitcoin is still a thought experiment to them.
How does Bitcoin compare in size to gold? Gold is estimated to have a market capitalization of somewhere around $12 trillion. If gold’s market capitalization never rises again, Bitcoin would need to be worth over $600,000 a coin to surpass it.
And companies? Apple is a $3 trillion dollar company, Microsoft is $2.5 trillion, Saudi Aramco is $2.1 trillion, Google is $1.5 trillion…. the list goes on and on and on.
It was estimated that the high point of 2021, the size of the stock market was $100 trillion.
And then there are the m1 and m2 money supplies, plus the world’s money supply, which added together are said to be approaching $1 quadrillion dollars.
At a market capitalization of $601B and a price of $31,000, Bitcoin is quite small. I don’t think that Bitcoin is designed to completely replace these sectors or be the global currency of the world anytime soon, but it is absolutely stealing value as it carves out its own niche. The best part is that you can probably read this same newsletter next year, and three years from now, and it will still be early.
Bitcoin is on an ambitious mission to space that just cleared the launch pad.
Crypto Town Hall Interviewed 3AC
If you missed out on Spaces yesterday, you can relisten by clicking the image above or HERE. A lot was covered, but the gist of the conversation was a deep dive into what 3AC was doing before their blow-up, what caused the blow-up, what Kyle and Zu are doing now, and what creditors can reasonably expect moving forward.
One of the interesting moments in the Space was Kyle sharing his philosophy on making creditors right. If you are calling bullsh*t, I completely understand, but I’ll share this Coindesk article HERE, which goes into more detail as to what Kyle was saying related to “karma” and the “shadow recovery process.”
I am not buying it.
Side note - there are not charts today and limited news today, as I have no access to a computer! I will be fully back tomorrow.
Coinbase Earnings Date & Event Calendar
Subscribers of this newsletter are well-aware of my interest in Coinbase stock ($COIN). However, I'd like to draw your attention to a few obstacles that Coinbase still needs to navigate before we can anticipate clear sailing. First, the Q2 2023 quarterly earnings report, expected to be released in early August, will be a significant determinant. Second, the outcome of the Coinbase lawsuit under SEC scrutiny, in conjunction with Coinbase's role as the designated custodian for ETFs, could impact the stock's trajectory.
Nonetheless, it's promising to see Coinbase begin to ascend the proverbial 'wall of worry', with patient investors reaping the rewards. With the legal uncertainties subsiding, Coinbase stands to benefit immensely from ETF approval, even with potential erosion of its market share. Both retail investors and institutions alike would likely continue to rely on Coinbase for Bitcoin ownership. Furthermore, initiatives like Coinbase International and Build On Base are just starting to make their mark. In my view, with a valuation at $18.75B, Coinbase's current valuation doesn't do justice to its true worth
In additional news, Coinbase is now officially the named exchange as the SSA counterpart following BlackRock’s resubmission. Both Bitcoin and COIN will pop BIG if the ETF is approved.
OKX Signs A Huge Deal
English Football Club Manchester City has a new sponsor, who also happens to be one of the sponsors of this newsletter - OKX. So cool. I can't thank all of you enough for making things like this happen, it’s the reason why this newsletter remains free and I continue to find the passion to write it each day. You can see the sponsorship on the left sleeve of players (both men and women) for this upcoming season. The slogan for the sponsorship is Bringing Web3 ‘closer to the game,’ which I am still geeking out over. If OKX interests you, you can click the link HERE.
Were Economists Wrong? The Economy Is Not Collapsing. Market Rally | Macro Monday
Macro Monday with Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and Alex Kruger
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Keep it up Scott first thing I read each morning.