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In This Issue:
Bitcoin Is Bigger Than BlackRock
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Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Discovering Bitville: The Hidden City Of Digital Gold
Prime Trust / Bitgo Deal Falls Through
Binance Strikes Back
Report Proves That Web3 Is Not Dead
The Memes Never Stop
ETFs Gone Wild! | 30k BTC - Will Altcoins Catch Up?
Bitcoin Is Bigger Than BlackRock
While it's true that a Bitcoin ETF represents a significant milestone, it is certainly not the final destination for Bitcoin. It's just one step in a much bigger journey, one that's likely to see Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies transform the way we think about money and financial transactions.
Think back to a few years ago when El Salvador made the groundbreaking move to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. Although other Latin American nations like Paraguay, Uruguay, Cuba, Brazil, Mexico, Panama, and Argentina fell short of doing the same, it painted a vivid picture of what might be possible.
Remember also when MicroStrategy took the bold step of adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet? This move encouraged other tech companies, such as Square and Tesla, to follow suit. Michael Saylor further fueled this momentum by hosting the “Bitcoin For Corporations” event, providing a roadmap for corporate leaders to invest in Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency adoption often takes us by surprise, springing up unexpectedly in bull markets. If we go back to Bitcoin's early days, when it was merely a tool for anonymous online transactions, no one could have predicted the success of centralized exchanges and wallets in listing this asset worldwide.
Many of the 'big ideas' in the Bitcoin community may not have materialized yet, but these attempts are vital in paving the way forward. Without the efforts of ARK, VanEck, ProShares, WisdomTree, and others in pursuing ETFs - despite multiple setbacks - the path wouldn't be laid out for heavyweights like BlackRock to potentially push adoption further.
The upcoming BlackRock ETF is certainly a significant event, but it's just the tip of the iceberg for Bitcoin. Its acceptance by companies is still minimal, institutional exposure is in the early stages, national adoption is a nascent concept, and governments are yet to buy in.
But picture this: imagine the numerous countries that might have been on the verge of adopting Bitcoin following El Salvador's move, or the tech companies that nearly hit the buy button after Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy. Consider the asset managers, miners, and funds that might have been just a step away from taking a transformative risk.
The nature of Bitcoin is such that one brave move or a pioneering idea can make the seemingly impossible a reality - a sentiment that BlackRock's ETF proposition echoes. But it's unlikely that BlackRock will stop at Bitcoin. With Ethereum still largely uncharted territory and areas like NFTs, DeFi, Web3, and the metaverse looming on the horizon, there's much more to explore and understand.
Progress often requires failure and setbacks, and the same holds for the cryptocurrency market. With or without Bitcoin on their balance sheet, companies like BlackRock have a vested interest in Bitcoin's success. Imagine the possibilities when a series of ETFs gets approved, companies start accepting Bitcoin, institutions begin buying, and legislation swings in our favor.
Yes, it might be ambitious to expect all these developments to occur simultaneously, but a confluence of these events would indeed be momentous.
Bitcoin is gradually moving towards becoming a global monetary standard - that's the endgame. A Bitcoin ETF is a major step, but let's not lose sight of the bigger picture. There's so much more that Bitcoin can achieve, and it's within our grasp. Let's carry this optimism into our next Crypto Town Hall meeting and continue to dream big.
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Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Just a reminder that we have a confirmed inverse head and shoulders pattern with a clean retest of the neckline around $25,212 with a target around $41,185.
While patterns rarely hit their targets, sometimes it is worth eliminating all of the noise and looking at the bigger picture.
Legacy Markets
Global markets are facing volatility due to fears of recessions driven by higher interest rates and weak economic activity data, particularly in the euro area. Investors are increasingly moving their funds into the perceived safety of bonds, leading to the biggest weekly decline in global stocks in over three months. The US stock market is also feeling the pressure, with US index futures falling and Siemens Energy AG's shares plummeting 36% after a profit warning. Meanwhile, central banks' aggressive policies, such as the Bank of England's unexpected interest rate hike and the Federal Reserve's indications of further rate increases in 2023, are exacerbating investors' anxieties.
The economic slowdown is affecting key economies, as evidenced by Germany’s economic activity losing more momentum than expected in June, primarily due to a services slowdown and sustained factory weakness. This has led to a sharp drop in the Euro following these reports. France is also experiencing economic stagnation, with data suggesting a slump in the past three months. Investors have shifted $5 billion from global equity funds and added $5.4 billion to bonds as a protective measure. The rise in interest rates by central banks, including an unexpected hike by the Bank of England and potential further increases by the Federal Reserve, are stoking fears of a recession and driving these cautious moves.
Key events this week:
Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 4:46 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed
The MSCI World index fell 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.4%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0861
The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2709
The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.05 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 7.2151 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $30,037.39
Ether was little changed at $1,888.44
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 3.74%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined 14 basis points to 2.36%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 4.24%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.7% to $68.35 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,929.90 an ounce
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is still very active in the fight against inflation.
Discovering Bitville: The Hidden City Of Digital Gold
Thank you, ChatGPT…
Once upon a time in the vibrant city of "Bitville", there was a rumor about a hidden treasure, an extraordinary kind of gold named "Bitgold". Unlike regular gold, Bitgold was digital and only 21 million pieces existed in the world. The only way to find this gold was by solving incredibly tricky puzzles. The smartest computers in town worked day and night, mining this valuable Bitgold. This process was known as "mining".
To keep track of who found what and when, the city installed a giant, transparent ledger in the town square, named the "Block Ledger". Whenever someone found Bitgold or traded it, the details were written on this ledger. Because it was in public view, any mischief was easily spotted, making the process safe and transparent.
People stored their Bitgold in digital wallets. These wallets were unique, and each came with a key. If you lost this key, your Bitgold was lost forever, just as if you had dropped your wallet full of coins in the ocean.
The citizens of Bitville were very privacy-conscious. When they dealt in Bitgold, they used pseudonyms, like superheroes, masking their real identities. So, the Block Ledger would record that "Captain Crypto" sent 1 Bitgold to "Blockchain Buster", keeping their real identities a secret.
The most interesting thing about Bitville was its independence. There was no mayor or governor ruling over Bitgold. The city was a large community, where everyone contributed to keep the system going. This is what made Bitville special. It was a city where the people, their computers, their secret superhero identities, and their beloved Bitgold created a unique, decentralized world.
And thus, the legend of Bitville and its digital treasure spread far and wide. People from all corners of the world started to learn about Bitgold (aka Bitcoin), and how the citizens of Bitville had created a whole new way to think about value and trust.
While this is a simple tale, it carries the basic principles of Bitcoin: its digital nature, mining process, the blockchain ledger, wallets, the privacy aspect, and its decentralized system. And just like any story, the real action and adventure lie in the details.
Prime Trust / Bitgo Deal Falls Through
Before we delve into the latest developments, let's briefly revisit what happened just a week ago. Galaxy Digital's planned acquisition of Bitgo was abruptly halted, leading to a legal dispute. Bitgo sought damages in court, arguing that Galaxy Digital had unjustly terminated the deal. However, the court ruled in favor of Galaxy Digital, asserting that they had a "clean termination right". Fast forward to the present day, and Bitgo finds itself in an ironic twist of fate, being on the terminating end of a deal. As the legal dispute between Galaxy Digital and Bitgo was drawing to a close, Bitgo penned a letter of intent to acquire Prime Trust, a custodian facing financial challenges and desperately in need of a rescue plan.
Initially, this seemed like a much-needed respite for Prime Trust, but now the deal has fallen apart, setting off a domino effect that's impacting companies with financial ties to it. The final blow came on Wednesday when the Nevada Financial Institution Division issued an order to Prime Trust to stop all deposits and withdrawals. This development forced Stably, a crypto exchange dependent on Prime Trust, to do the same, as did Coinmetro, another exchange finding itself in a similar predicament. As the day progressed, it was revealed that "Prime Trust was unable to honor withdrawals due to a shortfall of customer funds caused by a significant liability on the balance sheet owed to customers." This unfortunate turn of events serves as another black mark for the crypto industry, albeit likely a necessary one for progress to be made.
Remember, Prime Trust is a regulated CUSTODIAN, tasked with protecting the assets of exchanges and institutions.
I reported on this matter on Crypto Town Hall a few weeks ago, but chose not to share the rumors that we were hearing about Prime Trust. When Bitgo stepped in, I truly hoped that this would be resolved but assumed based on inside knowledge that due diligence would fail.
When the story comes out in full, we will likely see fraud by another trusted and regulated crypto institution. I am currently working on putting it all together for YouTube at 9 AM EST today.
Binance Strikes Back
Rather than sharing an article, I will simply post this amazing thread from my friend James Murphy, who will be joining me on YouTube today to discuss.
Let’s just say that Binance is ready to fight and going on a major offensive.
Report Proves That Web3 Is Not Dead
Far from being obsolete, Web3 still has a great deal of potential. To substantiate this, Coinbase partnered with The Block to study Fortune 100 and 500 companies, yielding surprisingly positive results. Instead of paraphrasing, I've outlined some of the key findings from the research below.
52% of Fortune 100 companies are investing in crypto or blockchain initiatives since the start of 2020.
83% of surveyed Fortune 500 executives who are familiar with cryptocurrency or blockchain say their companies have either current initiatives or are planning them.
The U.S. is at risk of losing out on 1 million web3 developer jobs and 3 million related non-technical jobs to other countries between now and 2030 if it continues on its current path of regulation by enforcement.
Citi Ventures, Google Ventures, Microsoft Ventures, and Goldman Sachs have made as many crypto-private investments as all other Fortune 100 companies combined.
I'd like to conclude by drawing your attention to the following graphic. You'll observe that the primary deterrent for Fortune 500 executives is a "lack of investment return," closely followed by "regulation." Although these two are separate categories, I believe the latter significantly influences the former. Concerns about regulation directly affect how the industry assesses profit potential. The last thing a well-established company wants is to entangle itself in a securities lawsuit or bankruptcy proceedings. Once there's clarity in the regulatory environment, the industry will be able to cleanse itself, paving the way for innovation to thrive.
The Memes Never Stop
I decided to take a detour and visit OpenSea and found something rather amusing. Currently trending on the homepage is a new collection of 999 BlackRock NFTs. These are visually identical to Ether Rocks, except they are black. It's quite evident that the meme-crafting prowess of our community is unmatched. Like everything else, NFTs will have their resurgence, but for now, the spotlight is on Bitcoin.
ETFs Gone Wild! | 30k BTC - Will Altcoins Catch Up?
I am joined by James Seyffart (Bloomberg) with whom I discuss Bitcoin ETF and Korean Jew Trading, who will join me at 9:40 am EST to share his trading ideas and thoughts about the market.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.