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In This Issue:
The IMF Is The Enemy
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The WEF Endorsed Bitcoin Mining
This Bank Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 Next Year
Dormant Addresses Are Waking Up?
Coinbase Sues The SEC
Fed Decision Imminent - Bull Or Bear? | Macro Monday With Mike McGlone & Dave Weisberger
The IMF Is The Enemy
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: the IMF is arguably the most villainous entity in the global financial world.
In May of last year, Argentina's Central Bank decided to impose a blanket ban on crypto and deny institutional access to it. This decision was devastating for the people of Argentina. According to Chainalysis, Argentina ranks 13th in the world for crypto adoption, primarily due to rampant inflation and the need for a store of value. In isolation, the IMF's ban seems nonsensical.
However, Argentina is not operating in isolation.
In March, the IMF granted a $45 billion loan to Argentina to address the country's most pressing fiscal challenges. This loan came with stipulations concerning cryptocurrency. The IMF essentially forced the country to choose between the loan and crypto. Left with no alternative, Argentina's fate was sealed when their Congress approved the IMF debt deal, which discouraged crypto usage. The IMF is demonstrating its unwillingness to allow countries to break free from the fiat bondage for which it is responsible.
Below is the clause from the Letter of Intent (the download link for the letter is in the article) that the government of Argentina published this month. This clause discourages the use of cryptocurrency in order to appease the IMF's demands.
Did you know that in Argentina, over 40% of the population lives below the poverty line, and inflation reached as high as 103% in February this year? Here's the outlook: half the country lives meal to meal, prices of goods and services are doubling annually, and now crypto is off the table. The IMF has prevented a desperate country from exploring new financial opportunities and has instead trapped them as a fiat debt slave.
The IMF has no issue with publicly stating its stance. Take a look at what the IMF said in February about El Salvador's shift towards crypto.
“Financing purchases of Bitcoin by issuing tokenized securities should be eschewed because of fiscal risks. Given the legal risks, fiscal fragility and largely speculative nature of crypto markets, the authorities should reconsider their plans to expand government exposures to Bitcoin, including by issuing tokenized bonds.”
Argentina isn't the IMF's first victim, though. Ever since El Salvador decided to accept Bitcoin, the IMF has targeted the country and slowed down relief efforts. A $1.3 billion loan has been indefinitely stuck in negotiation since 2021 and is most likely scrapped now because nothing has developed for a year. My guess is that El Salvador will have the last laugh.
The IMF's goal is to capitalize on the desperation of impoverished nations, locking them into a debt cycle from which they can never escape.
The Central African Republic adopted Bitcoin last year. Here's what the IMF had to say about it immediately afterward.
“The adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in C.A.R. raises major legal, transparency, and economic policy challenges,” the fund said in an emailed response to questions. “IMF staff are assisting the regional and Central African Republic’s authorities in addressing the concerns posed by the new law.”
The IMF is acting out of desperation to maintain its fiat monopoly.
Fighting Bitcoin won't be cheap. We know what's coming. An open-source, decentralized, digital, and immutable technology will prevail.
Forget the IMF. Bitcoin solves this.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Incredible.
Bitcoin continues to bounce right at the level that we want to see broken to give us clear bullish divergence - $27,262. When you have equal lows and RSI making higher lows, it is called “exaggerated bullish divergence,” which I consider a somewhat weak signal.
I will keep watching, as this is the only thing that is worth discussing at the moment.
Legacy Markets
European stocks fell as investors assessed earnings reports from major companies, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index dropping 0.5%. UBS Group AG and Banco Santander SA weighed on banks, while US equity futures declined. In other earnings news, Nestle SA, Kuehne + Nagel International AG, Novartis AG, and ABB Ltd. all posted positive results, while Associated British Foods Plc and Boliden AB disappointed. Contracts on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 traded 0.5% lower.
Market sentiment remains cautious amid concerns over the economic and monetary climate's impact on earnings. Despite some better-than-expected Chinese data, weak bottom-up corporate earnings and guidance have caused uncertainty in the equity market. Investors are advised to remain defensive as inverted yield curves, slowing consumer spending, and credit tightening could impact markets in the medium to long term.
Key events this week:
US new home sales, consumer confidence, Tuesday
Australia CPI, Wednesday
Sweden rate decision, Wednesday
Eurozone economic, consumer confidence, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
Bank of Japan meets on interest rates, Friday
Euro-area GDP, Friday
US personal income, Friday
Earnings highlights:
Tuesday: Pepsi, General Motors, General Electric, McDonalds, Microsoft, UPS
Wednesday: Boeing, Meta, Hilton
Thursday: Amazon, American Airlines, Intel, Mastercard, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, Honeywell, Barclays
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.5% as of 10:21 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.6%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.1040
The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 134.05 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.3% to 6.9263 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2471
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $27,378
Ether fell 1% to $1,821.27
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.45%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.46%
Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.74%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.1% to $82.63 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
The WEF Endorsed Bitcoin Mining
Nothing is more enjoyable than watching the WEF indirectly promote our trusted methods for Bitcoin mining. A recent video released by the WEF endorsed Cruose Energy, a startup focused on capturing and utilizing excess flare emissions produced by the oil and gas industry. The video explains that, thanks to the Cruose model, "the environment is saved from harmful methane emissions" and "mobile and modular data centers" are powered.
What the Bitcoin community noticed is that Cruose is actually a major player in the crypto mining industry. This fact wasn't mentioned in the video, but I find it hard to believe that the WEF is unaware of it. The homepage of Cruose's website features crypto mining as one of their core focuses, and the WEF's video appears to show BTC miners. Whether they're willing to admit it or not, we are winning. You can watch the video I am referring to HERE.
This Bank Predicts Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 Next Year
I want Bitcoin to hit $100,000 just as much as the next HODLer, but could it be that Standard Chartered is making a bold prediction for its own benefit? I do believe $100,000 is inevitable, but I've retired from guessing when it will happen. Investors have been saying '$100,000 is next' since 2017, and now, nearly 6 years later, there's still a LONG way to go – go figure. If Bitcoin performs well, Standard Chartered will bring in more business; their bias is pretty easy to discern. Standard Chartered has to be bullish.
"We see potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach the USD 100,000 level by the end of 2024, as we believe the much-touted 'crypto winter' is finally over. The current stress in the traditional banking sector is highly conducive to BTC outperformance – and validates the original premise for Bitcoin as a decentralized, trustless, and scarce digital asset. Troubles faced by stablecoins (competing digital assets) have also helped Bitcoin regain its reputation as 'digital gold.'"
Also, for the record, I don't agree with their last statement regarding stablecoins. I don't think stablecoins losing stability is good for Bitcoin.
Dormant Addresses Are Waking Up?
For now, I'm categorizing the rumors I'm about to share as FUD, but I'm keeping a close eye on them. What we know for a fact is that "the largest dormant address holds 79.9k BTC ($2.2 billion), having gone dormant in March 2011. Its last activity was recorded this Monday, sitting at an unrealized profit of $2.2 billion." The rumor involves speculation that older wallets are being cracked, possibly because key generation was easier back then. This narrative is great if you're hoping the price drops, but so far, we have no evidence supporting this theory. Assuming the wallets aren't lost, they're bound to 'wake up' at some point.
Coinbase Sues The SEC
And so it begins.
Coinbase has sued the SEC, seeking regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. The top US crypto exchange requested a federal court to press the SEC to respond to its previous rulemaking petition within seven days. In July, Coinbase asked the SEC to propose rules for identifying which digital assets are securities and how securities laws apply to them. The company also requested clarity on the treatment of staking services in March. However, the SEC has not provided a response or comment, according to Coinbase. The lack of formalized decision-making has created uncertainty for crypto companies and blocked their ability to adequately prepare for the future.
Good to see Coinbase going on the offensive - this is exactly what we need to see from the biggest player in the US.
Fed Decision Imminent - Bull Or Bear? | Macro Monday With Mike McGlone & Dave Weisberger
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Great issue Mr. Melker!