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In This Issue:
Your Guide To Seeking Alpha
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
If You Think $BTC Is In The Bear Market, I've Got Bad News For You
Copyright Lawsuits Are Coming For NFTs
Avoid Crypto TikTok At All Costs
Zimbabwe To Issue Gold-Backed Digital Currency
Transforming Tomorrow: Marathon Digital's CEO Fred Thiel on the Global Impact of Bitcoin Mining
Your Guide To Seeking Alpha
Like a river, information in the crypto world flows through various channels, each with its own speed and clarity. Navigating this network can be challenging, which is why I've decided to create a guide to the landscape where knowledge and insights travel. While no two rivers are the same, some sources of information may be more misleading than others. As your guide, I'll help you identify and rank different sources of crypto information to help you stay in the know.
In essence, this concept aims to illustrate how individuals, like your nephew, personal trainer, or accountant, may be either well-informed or uninformed when they discuss crypto. Occasionally, useful information can be found in less reputable sources, but as a general rule, the closer you are to the source, the more reliable the information. There's nothing worse than being at the bottom of the river, believing you have accurate information, only to find out you're fighting for scraps with the catfish.
For those willing to go the extra mile for clean sources of crypto information, I promise you won't be disappointed. I've ranked various information sources in the crypto space to help you determine where you stand. But first, please read my disclaimer!
Disclaimer: The tier ranking provided below is subjective and based on my personal opinion. You may have a different ranking for the sources listed or different sources altogether. Use this guide as a starting point and adjust as necessary. If you already have a reliable system in place, stick to it. Continuous improvement is key.
*The grading system starts with 'S-tier' (superior) and ends with 'D-tier' (dumps).
S-Tier: These sources are considered the most reliable and informative for obtaining accurate information about the crypto sector. Trustworthy and primary sources, they often provide detailed and in-depth analyses of the cryptocurrency market and technology.
Institutional-grade trading platforms
Academic research papers
Legal precedent
Academic and official certificate programs
Onchain analytics
A-Tier: S-tier information is present in the A-tier category but in lesser quantities. These sources are generally reliable and informative but may not be as well-established or well-known as S-tier sources. They still provide valuable information and insights but may not have the same level of reputation or trustworthiness.
Whitepapers and roadmaps
CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko
GitHub
Twitter (Depending on who you follow)
CoinDesk
Cointelegraph
Cryptocurrency exchanges
B-Tier: Decent sources that are not as reliable or comprehensive as those in higher tiers. Additional research is needed to vet the information found in this category. B-tier sources often contain hidden gems that provide valuable insights into higher-tier sources.
Medium
Reddit
Podcasts
(Crypto) Newsletters
(Crypto) Courses
YouTube
C-Tier: Proceed with caution here. These sources are typically less established or regarded, and the information they provide may be less accurate or comprehensive.
Conferences, events, and meetups
Facebook groups
Telegram/Discord/Slack
D-Tier: Stay away from this category. Sources here are likely to provide unreliable, inaccurate, and misleading information, often driven by ulterior motives.
TikTok
Regulators
Celebrities
Pop culture references
Additional Notes:
Any item on the list can contain information ± any number of tiers based on quality. For example, Twitter contains accounts with bad information (D-tier) and some regulators (placed in D-tier) actually understand crypto and should be considered S-tier (e.g., Hester Pierce). These are exceptions, not the rule.
Telegram, Discord, and Slack were difficult to place due to the lack of oversight and prevalence of scammers. However, some of the best discussion groups and helpful individuals can be found in this category. With extra caution and time, these platforms can be considered A-tier when engaging with good faith actors.
Most B-tier sources comment on information from S and A tiers. This doesn't mean they're wrong, but they're not primary sources. Even this guide falls into this category, along with many other newsletters and content that I highly recommend. Information often becomes more digestible in this category, but it may lose its original clarity.
Whitepapers and roadmaps are unique because they can be considered primary sources, but their quality can vary significantly. For example, reading the Bitcoin or Ethereum whitepaper is a different experience than reading a speculative NFT project's roadmap with anonymous founders who have been absent for months.
Take some time to evaluate where you stand in terms of information sources. As an investor, being at B-tier and above typically leads to above-average returns and results. Ultimately, we all want to move up this river of knowledge, so share what you know and help others when you can. Mainstream adoption begins with sharing knowledge! I hope this guide helps you in your crypto journey, and here's to a fantastic week ahead.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin currently looks a bit rough on the monthly chart. Good thing we have a week left before the candle closes. At the moment, we have a gravestone doji through key resistance at $28,600. The candle body is below the line, with a long wick above.
Remember, a candle is only bearish if confirmed on the next candle… so a long time to wait to see how all of this plays out. Still worth keeping an eye on.
Ugly bearish engulfing weekly candle. The huge blue candle makes last week’s push above $28,600 look like a deviation, so we can’t get too excited about that move. That said, the weekly trend continues up, with higher highs and higher lows, so this looks like more of a correction than a new bearish trend for now.
RSI never managed to close overbought, which is a good thing in my mind. It should still complete that trip, and once it does hit overbought it usually stays there for quite a while.
We have a nice retest of the 50 MA on the daily chart - the first since the major move up during the banking crisis. For now, this means that we have a simple correction and mean reversion back to an obvious trend.
Not too bad for now, but something we need to watch.
RSI has not made it back to oversold yet, which aligns with my idea that I have been harping on - that price should come back to retest $25,212, which usually means either that price gets front run and it bounces higher, or we get a big move below it to scare everyone off.
We never were able to confirm a single bullish divergence on the way down… price continued to drop and RSI made a lower low.
Good, that makes for a better entry.
A candle close below $27,262 on Binance and then an elbow up on RSI would give us clear oversold bullish divergence. This now is possible on the 6-hour and 12-hour charts as well… even the daily. That’s what I like to see.
Let’s watch and wait.
Important to always wait for confirmation… a potential divergence is nothing but an idea, as proven on Friday.
Legacy Markets
European stocks and US equity futures were largely flat as traders assessed the latest corporate earnings reports at the start of a week packed with economic data that may help illuminate the path for interest rates. Energy companies led declines as crude prices extended last week’s slump, while banks gained. The euro gained against the dollar. Meanwhile, swaps markets continue to see Federal Reserve rates peaking in coming weeks before a series of cuts later this year. A busy week for earnings includes reports from Coca-Cola, First Republic Bank, and tech giants such as Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.
Key events this week:
ECB Governing Council members Boris Vujcic, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, speak at events, Monday
US new home sales, consumer confidence, Tuesday
South Korea GDP, Tuesday
Australia CPI, Wednesday
Sweden rate decision, Wednesday
Eurozone economic, consumer confidence, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, GDP, Thursday
Bank of Japan meets on interest rates, Friday
Euro-area GDP, Friday
US personal income, Friday
Earnings highlights:
Monday: Coca-Cola, First Republic
Tuesday: Pepsi, General Motors, General Electric, McDonalds, Microsoft, UBS, UPS
Wednesday: Boeing, Meta, Hilton
Thursday: Amazon, American Airlines, Intel, Mastercard, Southwest Airlines, Hershey, Honeywell, Barclays
Friday: First Citizens Bank, acquirer of Silicon Valley Bank
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 was unchanged as of 10:57 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1005
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 134.37 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.9017 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.2434
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $27,291.01
Ether fell 0.6% to $1,838.43
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.54%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.48%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.77%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.1% to $81.55 a barrel
Spot gold was little changed
If You Think $BTC Is In The Bear Market, I've Got Bad News For You
My good friend Birb recently shared a Twitter thread that has deservedly garnered high praise. I thought it would be worthwhile to share it with those who haven't seen it yet. The thread offers a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is now generally bullish, suggesting that investors may need to overcome their biases to accept this conclusion. Birb does an excellent job of supporting his analysis with data, so I recommend giving the thread a read after finishing here.
Copyright Lawsuits Are Coming For NFTs
NFTs, though a relatively new concept, are not exempt from copyright and trademark laws. It's now official that Yuga Labs' Bored Ape Yacht Club has won its lawsuit against Rider Ripps' identically-named collection. Rider Ripps created an NFT collection called "Rider Ripps Bored Ape Yacht Club" or RRBAYC, which directly infringed on Yuga Labs' existing name. It's worth noting that many unpopular NFT projects often resemble popular ones. This trend is likely to change in the next cycle, fostering healthier growth within the sector.
Avoid Crypto TikTok At All Costs
Research confirms that TikTok isn't a reliable news source - no surprise there. To tie in with the theme of our earlier discussion, I came across a study specifically examining Crypto TikTok, or "Cryptok." Just typing that out makes me cringe. The study mentioned above discovered that "over 1 in 3 videos on Cryptok were misleading" and "47% of all Cryptok creators are trying to push their own services to make money." Using the analogy from our introduction, TikTok is where the undrinkable water is discharged - it's best to steer clear.
Zimbabwe To Issue Gold-Backed Digital Currency
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe plans to introduce a gold-backed digital currency as legal tender to stabilize the local currency and combat depreciation against the U.S. dollar. This initiative will allow small amounts of Zimbabwean dollars to be exchanged for digital gold tokens, offering protection against currency volatility. Zimbabwe's annual consumer price inflation reached a one-year low of 87.6% in March. The central bank's governor, John Mangudya, expects the parallel market exchange rate to stabilize as tobacco farmers receive their U.S. dollar payments in the coming weeks. Zimbabwe has struggled with currency volatility and inflation for over a decade, leading to multiple changes in its official currency. Crypto adoption has grown in many African countries due to economic challenges, with the Middle East and North Africa being the fastest-growing region for crypto adoption.
Transforming Tomorrow: Marathon Digital's CEO Fred Thiel on the Global Impact of Bitcoin Mining
Fred Thiel is the CEO of Marathon Digital, a leading Bitcoin miner in the US. In this episode, we discuss the correlation between Bitcoin price and the hash rate, the geography of Bitcoin mining, the reasons why Russia is starting to play a significant role in the industry, the environmental issues of crypto mining, and much more!
In this episode with Fred Thiel, we discussed:
Bitcoin price and hash rate
Bitcoin mining cycles
Mining in China
Geography of Bitcoin mining
Geography diversification
Environmental issues
Anti-crypto agenda
Threats to Bitcoin mining
Russia & Bitcoin
Fred Thiel’s way into crypto
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin vs other blockchains
Existential threat to Bitcoin
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.