The Wolf Den #707 - Voltaire Was Right
Voltaire Understood Money
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
Trade on Bitget!
Bitget is the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage, world’s largest crypto copy trading platform, the official partner of Juventus Football Club and a top 5 exchange by volume as listed on CoinMarketCap!
Sign up using my link to Bitget and you will get:
Up to an $8000 sign-up bonus 🔥
15% discount on ALL futures trading fees 🔥
In This Issue:
Voltaire Was Right
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
Paxful Marketplace Shuts Down
Coinbase Beefs Up Derivatives Services
Anti-Bitcoin Mining Bill Passes In Texas, Uncontested
Visa Is Finished - Crypto Is Coming To Eat Their Lunch | Mark Smargon, Fuse
Voltaire Was Right
François-Marie Arouet, more widely recognized by his nom de plume, Voltaire, was a distinguished French Enlightenment author, historian, and philosopher born in the late 17th century. His oeuvre has garnered acclaim from scholars globally, yet many may be unaware that he is often erroneously credited with the well-known adage, "paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero."
Despite the quote's absence from his works, it is attributed to Voltaire due to his extensive commentary on currency and economic matters.
Does this prediction hold water?
While there have been cases of fiat currency collapses, the popularity of paper money has only increased, presenting an apparent paradox.
In the decades following Voltaire's death, France's paper currency, the French Assignat, dramatically lost value within a mere seven years. More recently, the Zimbabwean dollar, German mark, Hungarian pengő, Yugoslav dinar, and Venezuelan bolívar have suffered a similar fate. This prompts the question: are these instances the norm or the exception?
At present, 180 currencies are recognized as legal tender by United Nations member states. Furthermore, numerous other currencies not acknowledged by the UN or ISO serve as legal tender within their respective nations. Given this context, is it reasonable to anticipate that a handful of currencies among nearly 200 will collapse each century?
The answer is no. The history of paper money dates back to ancient China during the Tang dynasty (618-907 AD), yet no currency older than 329 years remains in circulation today. The most enduring fiat currencies currently in use include the British pound sterling, the United States dollar, and the Swedish krona. This reveals a stark truth: fiat currencies always die.
One might argue that contemporary fiat currencies differ from their historical counterparts, but such contentions fail to address the crux of the issue: the human proclivity for power and greed. Modern governments may possess sophisticated methods for managing currency supply, but human nature remains constant, and the same blunders that have plagued currency management since ancient China persist.
Humanity is ill-suited to controlling currency.
Although contemporary governance structures differ from feudal systems, counterfeit measures have improved, and the understanding of paper money has deepened, these factors do not negate the fact that the money-printing process is unstoppable. The inherent flaws of fiat currencies are well-known to historians and cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike. The concept of fiat currency may endure, but the dollar's days appear numbered. As the world embraces trustless, decentralized digital currencies such as Bitcoin, it becomes clear that Voltaire was right.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I am going to sound like a broken record, but $28,600 is the key resistance… and today is the 10th daily candle to interact with that line. We have not had one close above it yet. Is today the day? A close above should signal a quick move to 30-32K.
This is what to watch.
Altcoin Charts
I am seeing quite a few bullish posts about alt coins and an upcoming alt season, which I believe is a real possibility. That said, scanning charts it seems that many coins are at resistance, including Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rockets up, I would rather be focused there than on alt coins, which will inevitably lag.
I am sure there are some great opportunities arising, so I will start to look more closely and will do a charting live stream today to get the pulse. Tune in.
Legacy Markets
Global stocks and US index futures fell as hawkish stances from the central banks of New Zealand and Australia signaled a prolonged fight against inflation, raising concerns about a deeper economic slowdown. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly raised its benchmark rate by twice the forecast, while Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe stated that policymakers still expect a need for higher rates. Investors are now awaiting data on the US labor market to gauge the extent and duration of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Gold surged to a 13-month high due to inflation concerns and worries over a US recession. The hawkish moves by central banks suggest that the world economy may face more significant challenges ahead.
Key events this week:
Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Wednesday
US ADP employment change, Wednesday
US trade, Wednesday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks, Thursday
US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
Good Friday. US stock markets closed, bond markets close for part of the day
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.2% as of 9:55 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.2%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0947
The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 131.46 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8797 per dollar
The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2484
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $28,556.15
Ether rose 1.7% to $1,910.29
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.36%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.29%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 3.49%
Commodities
Brent crude fell 0.1% to $84.85 a barrel
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,024.71 an ounce
Paxful Marketplace Shuts Down
Another day brings news of another exchange's downfall. This particular incident is particularly disheartening, as I have been an ardent supporter of Ray Youssef and Paxful since its inception. For those unfamiliar, Paxful was a marketplace where users worldwide could trade an extensive array of goods and services for cryptocurrency. The platform functioned as a digital bank for the unbanked and underbanked populations. Although the site remains operational, the absence of its marketplace leaves Paxful a shadow of its former self. Below is the official statement from Ray Youssef:
“This will probably come as a big shock to many. While I cannot share the full story now, I can say that we unfortunately have had some key staff departures. Also, regulatory challenges for the industry continue to grow, especially in the peer-to-peer market and most heavily in the U.S. While we work through these issues, we have taken the most secure option and ask you to explore self-custody and trade elsewhere.”
Please be assured that all customer funds remain secure. However, it is recommended that users retrieve and transfer their funds to another location
Coinbase Beefs Up Derivatives Services
As the crypto community focuses on Binance's FUD and Paxful's shutdown, Coinbase is discreetly advancing its developments, now partnering with Transaction Network Services (TNS). For those unfamiliar, TNS is a legacy payments infrastructure company renowned for providing interoperability solutions. Through this collaboration, TNS will bolster the Coinbase Derivative Exchange by offering "lower latency trading, enhanced storage, and increased processing of large data sets," essentially adding a new layer of robustness.
Boris Ilyevsky, CEO of Coinbase Derivatives Exchange, commented on the partnership, stating, “TNS helps us deliver a resilient product that traders and investors can trust. Crypto has witnessed both volatile and liquid markets and with institutional adoption remaining strong, we believe the time is right for the offering that TNS brings to the table. Dedicated cloud infrastructure connectivity coupled with our derivatives exchange represents a mission-critical step toward supporting and maintaining a vibrant and reliable crypto derivatives market.”
Anti-Bitcoin Mining Bill Passes In Texas, Uncontested
The Texas Senate Committee on Business and Commerce has passed Senate Bill 1751, which proposes to amend the state's utilities and tax code to impose restrictions on crypto mining facilities. If enacted, the legislation would cap crypto firms' participation in a program compensating them for load reductions on Texas' power grid and remove certain tax abatements. Critics argue that the bill would effectively eliminate incentives for crypto miners to create jobs in rural Texas. The state has been a hub for crypto miners due to its lenient regulatory environment and crypto's inclusion in its commercial code since 2021. The bill will likely proceed to the Texas state Senate for a floor vote.
Visa Is Finished - Crypto Is Coming To Eat Their Lunch | Mark Smargon, Fuse
Join us for an exciting episode of our podcast as we sit down with Mark Smargon, the founder of Fuse - a Layer 1 blockchain platform, and a prominent figure in the payments industry. Many of you may already be familiar with Mark's previous venture, Colu, which introduced the innovative concept of city coins. Today, Fuse is making waves in the blockchain world, boasting over 500K users across multiple countries with the ambitious goal of replacing Visa.
In this episode, we delve into the intricacies of blockchain technology and discuss the challenges and opportunities facing the industry. We also explore Mark's vision for the future of payments and his journey as an entrepreneur. So, whether you're a blockchain enthusiast or just curious about the latest developments in the payments space, this episode is not to be missed. Tune in now to learn more!
In this episode with Mark, we discussed:
Getting into crypto
Technology should not be speculative
City coin
Fuse
Competition in curriences
Future of payments
Solving UI problem
Stablecoins is a gamechanger
Fees
Scaling issues
CBDCs
Alternatives to crypto
Ethereum is a financial product
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
Appreciate all the commentary you provide. I start my morning every day, in the Den. Thanks and Take easy. T
thanks man, love your content!