The Wolf Den #690 - The Daily Close (My Brand New Newsletter!!!)
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share the news, my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and my random musings. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE. Subscribe!
In This Issue:
The Daily Close
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Coinbase Is Making Big Moves
Bybit Announces USD Disruption
Multicoin Had A Hard Year
This Economist Doubts We Will Have A Recession, But Crypto Has More To Lose | Frances Coppola
The Daily Close
I am really excited.
Those of you who watch my YouTube streams may have heard me discussing a fresh newsletter that I have been working hard to create, alongside my friends at The Tie.
The Tie is the industry leader in real-time data. They are basically the Bloomberg of crypto. Institutional customers of The Tie and Bloomberg pay tens of thousands of dollars a year for terminals and for access to news and data in real time.
This is where the big boys get their edge.
I am fortunate to have access to The Tie myself. It’s a major cheat code, but also insanely complex and way above my pay grade. I probably access about 5% of what is available. So I reached out to them to create something for retail - a daily newsletter that will come out at the daily crypto close, 7 days a week, summarizing the news of the day and including all of the key data and metrics to help your investment decisions.
This is completely data and AI driven - there is no opinion or human analysis. This is the most important news and metrics, every day, presented to you in a simple to read and understand format.
More importantly - it is a work in progress. We are launching, but would love your feedback as to what is useful, where we can improve, and how we can make this better. We have big plans - potentially a Discord group with real time updates and a larger community for subscribers.
To test it out, we are launching today - with a 7 day free window.
You can subscribe here - https://www.thedailyclose.io/
Here is what you will see every single day, at a minimum:
Trending News - The most interesting articles over the last 24 hours (curated by AI).
Macro Futures - Macro broadly is having an ever-increasing impact on crypto prices. Monitor the most important traditional assets and compare their performance to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Top 20 Largest — 24 hr Price Returns - Track how the largest coins performed over the last 24 hours.
Top 20 Largest — Tweet Volume vs. Trading Volume - Monitor which of the largest coins experienced the most unusual social or trading activity over the last 24 hours.
Daily Outliers - Which coins are outliers today that should be further researched for opportunities.
Top and Bottom 5 by Exchange Netflows - Coins experiencing net inflows into exchanges could suggest increased selling pressure. Those with net outflows could suggest investors are looking to hold and not sell.
Top 10 by Relative Active Addresses - These coins have the most active addresses on the Ethereum, Polygon, and Avalanche blockchains in the last 24 hours compared to each coin's own average over the last 30 days.
Top 10 by Whale Accumulation - Whales are accumulating these coins the most over the past 24 hours, as a percentage change in total balance compared to the previous day's total whale balance. A whale is an address that has at least 0.1% of the coin's supply on-chain.
Trending Searches - The top 7 coins investors are searching for in the last 24 hours.
Hottest NFT Collections - The highest-volume collections today and how their floor prices have changed.
You can sign up to test it out for the next week RIGHT HERE for free. After that, it will be $25 a month, which is basically enough to keep the lights on.
To be crystal clear, nothing will change with the Wolf Den! I will continue to pour my heart and thoughts into this newsletter, 5 days a week. It will ALWAYS be free.
I would love to have you sign up to the Daily Close and test it out!
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
The low time frame Bitcoin chart is very exciting, right!?
Thursday to Saturday showed some of the most absurd price action that I have ever seen on the Bitcoin chart.
RSI was effectively a flat line, much like the EKG shown above. After the sizable $1300 drop in under 15 minutes last week on real volume, buyers and sellers both completely disappeared.
The structure of the 4-hour candles is ridiculous. For days, every single candle was a doji, with a tiny body and small wicks both up and down. Talk about indecision.
There is a clear case that this was a single actor making a huge sell order, which rocked the market briefly, then leaving the rest of the participants scared to do anything. My friend Dave Weisberger made this case clearly.
Regardless of your thoughts on why the drop happened, since it did there has been NOTHING to look at.
4-hour RSI hit oversold, so at least we can now look for bullish divergence. This would require one small push down to make a lower low on price and a higher low on RSI. That is what I will be watching for.
Legacy Markets
Global stock markets were mostly subdued on Monday as investors kept a close eye on US Treasury yields and China's economic growth target. Europe's Stoxx 600 index edged up slightly, while futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 remained flat, struggling to build on Friday's gains. Chinese leaders' announcement of a lower-than-expected economic growth goal could indicate that Beijing will not deploy large-scale stimulus, which hurt commodity prices and mainland Chinese shares. However, it may also prevent another round of price growth from the world's second-largest economy.
US 10-year Treasury yields fell below the key psychological level of 4%, standing at around 3.93%. Bloomberg's dollar gauge remained flat after losing 0.8% last week. Eurozone bonds strengthened as investors reduced their bets on peak interest rates in the bloc. Investors are waiting to see if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Senate and House committees this week echoes the recent hawkish comments from other Fed officials. However, the current market pricing is for interest rates to rise to 5.4%, in line with the amount of tightening suggested by Fed officials.
Commodity markets were hit by China's new growth target, with iron ore, crude oil, and copper prices softening. The Bloomberg commodity index declined by as much as 1%, while the commodity-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars lost ground. The Credit Suisse Group's shares also declined further in European markets after news that Harris Associates had sold its entire stake in the lender after owning it for about two decades. However, US premarket trading saw a boost for shares in Apple and Tesla, with the former gearing up to launch its next slate of laptops and desktops and the latter cutting prices for the second time this year.
Key events this week:
US factory orders, durable goods, Monday
US wholesale inventories, consumer credit, Tuesday
Fed Powell’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee, Tuesday
Australia rate decision, Tuesday
Euro area GDP, Wednesday
US MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change, trade balance, JOLTS job openings, Wednesday
Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
Canada rate decision, Wednesday
EIA crude oil inventories, Wednesday
China CPI, PPI, Thursday
US Challenger job cuts, initial jobless claims, household change in net worth, Thursday
Bank of Japan policy rate decision, Friday
US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, monthly budget statement, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 4:37 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%
The MSCI World index rose 0.2%
S&P 500 futures were little changed
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.5%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.0637
The British pound was little changed at $1.2030
The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 136.04 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.6% to 6.9363 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $22,390.83
Ether fell 0.5% to $1,563.51
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.93%
Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.68%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.85%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $79.19 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,857.90 an ounce
Coinbase Is Making Big Moves
Coinbase has acquired One River Digital Asset Management, a digital asset investment firm, for an undisclosed amount. The acquisition aims to expand Coinbase's institutional access to cryptocurrency assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, and offer institutional clients more opportunities to invest in the cryptocurrency market. One River Digital Asset Management “will transition to become Coinbase Asset Management (CBAM), and will operate as an independent business and wholly-owned subsidiary of Coinbase.”
One River Digital has a unique approach to cryptocurrency investing, which includes offering exposure to both traditional and digital assets through its institutional-grade infrastructure. The acquisition will also provide Coinbase with access to One River's trading, research, and risk management capabilities.
Bybit Announces USD Disruption
Over the weekend, Bybit issued a statement announcing the suspension of USD payments and transfers on its platform. The cause of the disruption remains unclear, but it has been attributed to a "service outage from a partner." There has been speculation that this development may be linked to Bybit's involvement with Genesis or the numerous banking issues currently affecting the crypto industry, but these are merely rumors at this point. Bybit's announcement, which we have provided below, outlines the details of the suspension:
“We have temporarily suspended USD deposits via Wire Transfer (including SWIFT) due to service outages from our end-point processing partner until further notice.
Withdrawals via Wire Transfer (including SWIFT) will also be suspended at Mar 10, 2023, 12AM (midnight) UTC due to the same end-point processing partner. If you wish to make any withdrawals via these methods, please do so before Mar 10, 2023, 12AM (midnight) UTC.
You may continue to buy cryptocurrencies with your credit card on our One-Click Buy page. You may also continue to make crypto withdrawals.”
Multicoin Had A Hard Year
Yes, you read that correctly: Multicoin Capital experienced a staggering 91.4% drop in AUM in 2022. This information is based on investor letters that have been sent out, detailing the firm's performance throughout the year. Despite successfully avoiding Celsius and Luna, Multicoin did have around 10% exposure to FTX, which may have contributed to the decline. Additionally, the firm had accumulated a significant position in Solana and FTT, which likely did not help matters.
Although Multicoin Capital faced significant challenges in 2022, the firm has already begun to turn things around in the new year. In fact, in January, the fund posted a remarkable 100% return. Moreover, despite last year's difficulties, Multicoin reports that it remains up 2,866% since its inception. One could think of Multicoin Capital as a way to professionally gain strategic exposure to the altcoin market. Going forward, the firm intends to remain steadfast and will not attempt to time the market.
This Economist Doubts We Will Have A Recession, But Crypto Has More To Lose | Frances Coppola
Frances Coppola is a financial economist, author, blogger, and former banker. You might have seen Frances in our weekly Macro Monday live shows. In this episode of the Wolf Of All Streets podcast, Frances explains why the housing market won’t collapse as it did in 2008, why she believes we will not see a recession, and what will happen to Bitcoin and crypto.
In this episode with Frances, we discussed:
Bitcoin vs physical cash
Control over money
CBDCs
Safe assets
We are much richer than before
Yield curve control
Housing market, interest rates & inflation
Fed always overshoots
Real estate collapse
Labor market
Bigger recession?
Easy money
Crypto to lose more
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.