The Wolf Den #645 - Bold (Bad) Predictions
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In This Issue:
Bold (Bad) Predictions
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
The 3Commas Leak
Liquid Exchange Plans To Return Funds
Fijians Elect A Bitcoiner
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Bold (Bad) Predictions
Price predictions can be a controversial and risky endeavor, as they often generate significant attention and can have unintended consequences. In a volatile and unpredictable market, it is important to be cautious and consider the potential consequences before making a prediction or trusting a prediction from someone else.
The year 2022 serves as a reminder of the dangers of making bold predictions, and it is important to hold ourselves accountable for our beliefs and strive for greater wisdom in the future. By acknowledging the residual effects of past predictions and working to cleanse our beliefs, we can strive to make more informed and responsible decisions.
What started this idea is an article titled, “These Crypto Traders Failed Miserably at Predicting the Markets in 2022.”
It lists a few failed predictions - including one from me. Let's take a look at a few more failed and yet-to-be-tested predictions from last year.
Tim Draper
Tim's repeated prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $250,000 has garnered significant attention, as he has adjusted his forecast multiple times. In a recent email to CNBC, he stated that he has extended his prediction by six months and remains confident that $250,000 is a realistic target.
Tim's rationale for this prediction centers on the idea that women, who are known to control a significant portion of retail spending, are underrepresented among Bitcoin holders. He believes that this imbalance is unsustainable and that the market will eventually shift in favor of increased adoption by women.
It remains to be seen whether Tim's prediction will come to fruition, but it is worth noting that the accuracy of price forecasts can be difficult to determine and is influenced by a range of complex factors.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper thinks bitcoin will hit $250,000 a coin by the middle of 2023
PlanB
Over the past few years, PlanB's price models have gained significant recognition for their accuracy and have been widely regarded as some of the best in the industry. However, recent events have led to increased scrutiny and criticism of these models.
In late 2021, PlanB's prediction that the price of Bitcoin would reach $98,000 by November did not come to fruition, leading to questions about the validity of his forecasts. Despite this, PlanB maintained his belief that Bitcoin would eventually reach $100,000 by 2023. It appears that this target has since been adjusted to 2024.
PlanB @100trillionUSD Claims BTC Will Reach $100K by 2024
Willy Woo
My buddy Willy said this in his newsletter.
“I would say we will be right in the middle of it. It’s like $100,000 by the end of next year. And whether we whip up or down, it could go much higher and come back, but roughly the middle line is somewhere around $100,000.”
Maybe next year.
Peter Schiff
“It’s not a crypto winter” nor a “crypto ice age,” because that implies a spring thaw is coming. Schiff insists bitcoin’s price is not going to bounce back and this time around he thinks we’ll see a “crypto extinction.”
I don't feel the need to say anything else about Peter.
Cathie Wood
“Bitcoin to $1,000,000 by 2030 and Bitcoin is coming out of this smelling like a rose.” Cathie Wood has also predicted a $500,000 price for Bitcoin by 2026. We will see if this one comes true.
Me (Scott Melker)
I was included in the Beincrypto article for the 2022 wishlist that I wrote at the end of 2021. In that wishlist, I was overly optimistic and hoped for a new all-time high in 2022. This is what I wrote - “I expect many of these items to develop naturally. Others we will have to fight tooth and nail for.”
Guilty as charged.
Michael Saylor
“The value of bitcoin will overtake gold within ten years—potentially giving bitcoin a $500,000 price and a market capitalization of $10 trillion.”
“As it marches toward $100 trillion, you’re going to see the growth rates fall, the volatility fall, and it’s going to be a stabilizing influence in the entire financial system of the 21st century.”
We will see.
Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered, a multinational bank, has made some wild predictions. First, they said this - “cyclically, we expect a peak around $100,000 in late 2021 or early 2022. And we structurally value Ethereum at $26,000-$35,000.” Then they said “that bitcoin price could fall as low as $5,000 in 2023."
Standard Chartered is both concurrently a top-and-bottom signal.
John McAfee
“It's time to brush up your basic math skills and run some f*^#$ng numbers!!!! It is mathematically impossible for Bitcoin to be less than $1 mil by the end of 2020.”
RIP John McAfee, your comedic antics are missed.
Hal Finney
And lastly, we have the legend, Hal Finney, RIP (I wanted to end on a more positive note).
In the OG archive mailing list, in January 2009, Hal Finey predicted the following: “imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.”
I wish Hal was right, but price may get there yet. Maybe in 2023, right?
Happy New Year, everyone.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
I think we all know by now that there is little to see on the Bitcoin chart.
But the yearly close will come this weekend, which gives a chance to truly zoom out. Looking at the yearly chart, we can see that Bitcoin has never had two red years in a row.
Ever.
History does not need to repeat itself, but if the 4 year cycle holds and Bitcoin avoids a consecutive down year, we could be setting up for a decent 2023 and a much better 2024.
Nothing wrong with a little hope.
It is worth noting that the stock market has also avoided consecutive down. years since 2000-2002. Even with the great recession.
Markets tend to trend up if you zoom out far enough.
Legacy Markets
I guess we did not get that famed "Santa Claus Rally" to end 2022. Let's hope for a better 2023.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% as of 7:53 a.m. New York time
Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%
The MSCI World index was unchanged
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0683
The British pound was little changed at $1.2045
The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 131.84 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $16,497.96
Ether fell 0.2% to $1,192.81
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.84%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.51%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 3.67%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $78.16 a barrel
Gold futures were little changed
The 3Commas Leak
Over the past few months, many users of the trading platform 3Commas have reported unauthorized trades being made on their behalf on exchanges such as Binance, KuCoin, and Coinbase. It is estimated that the hacker or hackers responsible for these attacks have caused losses of over $6 million, with the number continuing to rise.
The circumstances surrounding the attacks are unclear, as it is not yet known whether the breach was an external hack or an internal leak. The CEO of 3Commas is aware of the situation and other exchanges are working to minimize the damage. However, the hacker has reportedly obtained more than 100,000 API keys and plans to leak a full database in the near future.
If you have ever used an API key on 3Commas, it is recommended that you disable it immediately. API keys are software code that identify and authenticate users, and it is important to keep them secure to prevent unauthorized access to your accounts.
Liquid Exchange Plans To Return Funds
There has been little positive news surrounding the FTX situation, but it seems that some progress is being made. The Japanese exchange Liquid, which is owned by FTX, has announced its plan to start returning customer assets in 2023. This will apply to both FTX Japan and Liquid Japan customers. While this development may not directly impact those outside of Japan, it is good news for those who have been affected by the situation.
Fijians Elect A Bitcoiner
The newly elected prime minister of Fiji, Sitiveni Rabuka, has expressed support for the use of bitcoin as a legal tender. Lord Fusitu’a, a Tongan noble and former member of the Tongan parliament, met with Rabuka via Zoom to discuss the adoption of bitcoin as a legal tender in Fiji. Tonga plans to introduce bitcoin as a legal tender as early as February 2023. Fiji, which has a population of almost 900,000, faces similar economic challenges to Tonga and could benefit from increased financial inclusion through the adoption of bitcoin. Remittance into Fiji accounts for over 11% of its GDP, and only half of the female population has access to a bank account. Bitcoin could act as a tool to improve remittances and increase access to financial services. Additionally, Fiji may experiment with bitcoin mining using geothermal volcano energy.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
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