The Wolf Den #64 - Trades, Tips, News, Bitcoin And More
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Bitcoin has been chopping up bulls and bears alike for quite a while now. I had 3 successful longs in the past week, but am currently short Bitcoin for a SCALP trade from $9,565 after closing my last long. I am not bearish in the grand scheme of things - just a quick trade based on what I am seeing on smaller time frames. This is somewhat of a no trade zone if you are taking swing trades or longer term positions, in my opinion. I am having fun on smaller time frames, but only with a small fraction of my overall portfolio.
MONTHLY CHART
I post this chart every week, even though the monthly candle is far from decided. I just want everyone to see the key levels on the large time frames. We want to see the monthly close above $9,243. Below that, I have buy orders at $7,777. A break above the $10,540 would be epic - a higher high and an end to any bearish argument. Paid members, keep an eye on the MACD chart I posted last week.
WEEKLY CHART
Want to be super simple? Bitcoin is sideways on the weekly chart between $9,764 and $8,729 - the two blue lines. Bullish above the top line, bearish below the bottom line. The bottom line is also in confluence with the 50 MA, which has acted as strong support.
I have discussed this with paid members a bunch of times, but that supply zone above has been heavy resistance. It should not hold if tested again, as price has pierced it completely. That said, 5 weekly candles have wicked into that area and been rejected. The REALLY SAFE trade at this point is above the red line when the bearish case is completely annihilated.
DAILY CHART
The ascending wedge that we have been watching broke down. Price reentered slightly, but is having trouble getting back above resistance, which is one reason that I took a short in this area. When a pattern breaks down, you expect a retest as resistance. From this area, the bullish case really begins again in my mind with a break of the descending blue line. That would be a clear break in this recent downtrend from the local top above $10,400. Much like the weekly had some key levels to watch, if you are trading the daily, we are once again sideways here with the black lines being the key - long above, short below. I took a short at the top one when it wicked above.
The 50 MA seems to be a key level on this time frame, as you can see. That blue line has been providing support, and all of the moves below have resulted in a long wick and close back above. Yesterday's daily candle was decidedly bullish.
4-HOUR CHART
We can get a better look at the ascending wedge, which is currently holding as support on this time frame. Price is stuck between the 50 and 200 MAs - whichever breaks will likely determine direction in the short term. You can see that price recaptured the blue trading range after breaking below - a nice bear trap. That said, the line I shared for a short is in confluence with the midrange (EQ or equilibrium) of that range. Clear spot to take a shot at a solid risk/reward short. If the wedge breaks down, I will ride this position longer.
I posted this on Twitter, but this is why I went long when seemingly everyone had turned super bearish and was shorting. There was a clear bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the 4 hour, my favorite long signal. Further, RSI had broke it's own resistance - price usually follows up when that happens. Here is a better look at that.
Pink resistance broke on RSI, price broke it's own resistance soon after. RSI patterns are a great way to see what is likely to happen with price. You can also see that price had formed a nice descending channel - statistically was highly likely to break to the upside. That channel has also been retested as support.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Beniamin Mincu
Beniamin Mincu, CEO and Co-Founder of Elrond is tackling some of the biggest challenges in the cryptocurrency space. With Bitcoin and Ethereum only able to process a handful of transactions per second, Elrond is launching its product to handle a world's worth of transactions - over 10,000 per second. Scott Melker and Beniamin Mincu further discuss technologies that can be put on the scale of evolution and change the course of humanity, a potential influx of a billion users in the blockchain space, commonalities of the world’s greatest inventors, creators and artists, mental mapping and applied philosophy, the uselessness of conventional education, thinking big, Bitcoin reaching an inflection point, and more.
THE PODCAST IS ON YOUTUBE! I have to wear pants when I record now, oh well. We will be including video moving forward.
Ternio BlockCard - Review
I recently had a great podcast conversation with Daniel Gouldman, the founder and CEO of Ternio and had the opportunity to try out the virtual card myself - I'm waiting for the physical card to arrive. I'm a huge fan so far.
Here are the highlights.
BlockCard is a debit card that allows you to buy what you want using your cryptocurrency. It is accepted at over 50 million merchants worldwide and allows you to use crypto like regular money.
They offer up to 6.38% crypto back on all of your purchases - including gas, groceries, mobile phone bills, and more. 6.38% is an absurdly high number and there are no limits. This is a huge selling point for me.
BlockCard syncs with Apple+Google pay and earns you rewards even when you don't have your physical card with you. It's incredibly easy to use when you are shopping online, which is how I do most of my transacting.
In short, BlockCard is as easy to use as any traditional debit or credit card, allows you to stay completely in crypto and offers tremendous rewards for spending. I highly recommend you grab one of your own. HERE'S THE LINK IF YOU WANT TO TRY IT OUT. To be clear, this is not a ref link, I get nothing from sharing it.
Trading Tip - Put Losses And Mistakes Behind You
I absolutely love this tweet, as it touches on one of the most important mental aspects of trading.
One of the most common mistakes that traders make is to actively attempt to "earn back their losses." This is a losing mentality and rarely ends well. There are a few reasons that this is the case.
1) Fixating on a bad trade often leads to revenge trading. Revenge trading is taking poorly planned trades on an asset to try to recoup losses. In reality, it makes no difference what asset you lose or gain money on - it's probably better to close the chart on the loser and find a better trade elsewhere. This is easier said than done.
It's never a good idea to take a fresh trade on the same asset right after you take a loss. I used to have a rule that after closing any trade, whether at a loss or in profit, I would close that chart for 24 hours. This stopped me from revenge trading.
2) It creates a losing mentality, because your mind is permanently fixated on the money lost and not the potential gains. People have different names for this phenomenon - the law of attraction, the power of positive thinking etc. I do not believe there is a universal law at play, I just believe that it's important to be focused on the potential positives in the future and not on the negatives from the past. When you are focused on a loss, you will inevitably continue to lose.
3) Good traders plan their losses and accept that losing is part of trading. If you are fixated on your "bad move," it is an indication that you are not mentally ready to be a trader. You should not be trading at all until wins and losses have a similar emotional effect on you - none at all.
4) If you take a loss on a trade, but that trade followed your system, it is not a "bad" trade. Most traders fail to realize this. As I have said many times, a good trade is one where you execute it and follow your plan. A bad trade is one where you do not have a plan or change your plan in the middle of the trade. The result has nothing to do with the quality of the trade. Losing money does NOT mean it was a bad trade.
You cannot undo the past. In trading and in life, you have to accept your losses and move on, realizing that everything ahead of you is a brand new game and opportunity for success.
Mass Migration From Coinbase
I am late to discuss this, but it is still worth mentioning, as users have been deserting Coinbase on a massive scale since the news broke.
"The behemoth cryptocurrency exchange has initiated procurement deals with a number of U.S. agencies, including the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), for a cryptocurrency investigations tool called “Coinbase Analytics,” according to publicly available documents. The Block first reported on the prospective deals Friday."
While Coinbase denies that they have disclosed or used any customer data, it's crystal clear that crypto believers want nothing to do with an exchange or company that is working to make Bitcoin less private - especially with the government.
Bitcoin is a hedge AGAINST corrupt governments - we don't need our allies helping those very governments access our data.
The US Refuses To Disclose Bailout Recipients
Steven Mnuchin really puts the douche in fiduciary.
US taxpayers have shelled out more than half a trillion dollars in loans to businesses under the Paycheck Protection Program, but those same taxpayers haven't yet been able to find out which companies received the money.
Some 438 publicly traded companies have disclosed about $1.38 billion worth of loans in regulatory filings, according to FactSquared, which has been checking thousands of filings. In some cases, large companies returned the money (just under $1 billion worth) after public backlash forced the Treasury Department to tighten its rules for the program and more closely review applications.
But for the other $529 billion of loans that have been doled out, there is no current plan for public accountability.
"We believe that that's proprietary information, and in many cases for sole proprietors and small businesses, it is confidential information," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Wednesday. Usually, the Small Business Administration — which has overseen the PPP — discloses recipients of its loans.
Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland asked an obvious question - "How can we know which businesses still need help if we do not know which businesses have received help?"
It's one thing to bail out zombie companies and send money to cronies. This has been done publicly for years. It is a COMPLETELY other thing to refuse to tell taxpayers where their money is going. This is unconscionable and borderline criminal.
Can you see why people choose to opt out of this financial system and buy Bitcoin?
Altcoin Trades
For free members and new members. I do NOT give signals, I post setups. The idea is for me to show you how I am viewing trades and looking at charts and the levels that would trigger interest for me. I do NOT want people blindly copying trades, because everyone manages them differently. I have posted a number of trades that I never took because the criteria required were never fulfilled. I shared a few on Friday that totally qualify - they never broke out, therefore I never traded them. No harm, no foul.
My trades are generally an "if, then" scenario - if a certain thing happens, then I will consider a trade. This is called trading on confirmations and gives far safer and better entries, where tighter stops are generally justified.
Here are a few ideas. I share far more on Thursdays and often Fridays. Paid members, revisit those trades as many are approaching validation still. XVG and ERD obviously already went absolutely nuts! I am still watching AION, ICX, MATIC, HOT, ENJ, POWR, WRX, TCT, TOMO and more.
AGI/BTC
I posted this on Twitter yesterday and have already exited half of the position. When I saw this clear ascending triangle, I entered at 189 sats. I sold half of my positions just below the first target, at 207. 208 is the target, but I always place my orders a bit below resistance and above to support to avoid being front run. I am still holding the rest for the higher targets.
As a fresh trade, the 2 entries to watch for on an ascending triangle are a bounce off of support, or a break of the horizontal resistance (208) at the top. If that breaks, you can enter the breakout, or wait for the safer entry - a retest as support. Be aware that sometimes that retest DOES NOT HAPPEN. But those have been the best trades when they do, and offer great risk reward because it's easy to let them go if support fails. The target above is based on extrapolating the depth of the triangle and measuring it above the triangle top. Other areas of potential friction are marked.
CHZ/BTC
I shared this on Friday, so this is an update as it looks likely to play out soon. I am looking for a clean break above the pink line and then a retest as support. The target based on the depth of the triangle is shown. Very easy. The trade becomes invalidated with a break of the ascending pink support line. A bounce off of that could be a nice entry as well.
ENG/BTC
Weekly chart, should take weeks or months to play out. I have been sharing this for weeks already. Still a beautiful chart - clear flip of horizontal resistance to support and clear break from the down trend. I REALLY like this chart because if the massive potential gains if it does continue up.
SC/BTC
This is another one that I have ALREADY successfully traded and only have a fraction of my position left. That said price is pushing through daily supply, a key area of resistance on the chart. This looks a lot like ZIL did before it really exploded, which is why I am continuing to keep a close eye on it. It exited the trading range at the bottom, retested it as support and made a strong move up. That was a clear bottom and accumulation. The real trade to consider here now is a CLEAR break above that red zone (anywhere above 39-40 is fine) and retest as support. Then play the levels as you see fit. No trade here yet for now.
WAN/BTC
I shared this with paid members last week - I am already in on the retest of that purple zone as support. All eyes are on the black descending line. If that breaks and is retested as support, then sky is the limit for this pair. This is AT RESISTANCE and has already been rejected with a strong wick through. We do not buy resistance. Fibonacci levels are targets, with the top of the descending black line being the ultimate hopium.
XTZ/BTC
This another "if, then" setup that has not triggered yet. The first entry was a bounce from the support zone drawn near the bottom. This coincided with a clear bullish divergence with oversold RSI on the 4 hour chart. However, it should be noted that hidden bearish divergence printed after, effectively canceling the further power of the bull div. At this point, an entry would be warranted if the descending white line is broken. Anything below that line now is below resistance. If it drops, you could consider another show at the support zone below, but the more that is tested the weaker it will become.
Once again, there is no trade here yet. A break of the descending line is a potential entry - a safer entry is a break and retest as support, which may not happen. The hopeful target would be the top of the descending white line.
Stock Charts
APT (ALPHA PRO TECH)
I have been watching this stock and bought it today. This is simple - they make protective gear like masks and face shields. This is an investment based on the idea that the virus will continue to be a problem and that there will be a large second wave. I believe that, so this is the shot I am taking on investing based on that idea. The chart looks beautiful as well.
SPY
SPY is an ETF that tracks the performance of the S&P and is the main vehicle I use to bet on the market as a whole. I am short with a cost basis of $315, so roughly even at the moment. I believe the market is due another correction, even with the irrational rise and Fed money printing. The chart agrees, but that does not mean much - clear break down from ascending blue support and almost a retest today as resistance. Also, the entire drop has retraced over 80%, which is not a surprise after a parabolic move. I personally think this could be the top, but what I "think" should not be important to you.
Can Crypto Traders Write Off Unlimited Losses?
"If you are a cryptocurrency “trader” in the eyes of the IRS, you may be able to greatly benefit from a frequently overlooked tax election called the “475(f) election.”
This loophole could be a tremendous boon for crypto traders with losses to write off. At present, the code states that you can declare up to $3000 per year in losses against earnings, no matter how much your actual losses were.
Read the article above for more clarity, although it's still a grey area at best.
Phemex - The Best Derivatives Exchange
This newsletter is sponsored by Phemex, the only leverage exchange where I now trade. I have been offered the opportunity to work with almost every exchange in the space, and held off for years on choosing to endorse one. It was a huge decision for me to start trading and publicly sharing Phemex with my followers and have been nothing but impressed with my experience.
Here are a few important points:
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6 Crypto trading pair + GOLD/USD
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Proprietary Cold Wallet System
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Traditional financial products soon, after licensing from MAS
New pairs coming soon
Fund managing options (Up to 200 Sub-accounts, simplified withdrawals, full API integration)
No fee spot trading
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Voyager - No Fee Trading, Interest and Insurance
Voyager is my favorite crypto broker. You can trade crypto fast and commission-free. Earn up to 6% interest on top coins with no lockups and no limits. You literally earn interest on your holdings while you trade at a rate higher than you can get in any legacy bank account or fund.
This is where I personally invest in Bitcoin on a daily basis. They are a publicly traded company on the Canadian Stock exchange - I trust them implicitly to protect my funds.
More importantly? USD held on Voyager is now FDIC insured!
Use code SCOTT25 when you download the app to get $25 in free Bitcoin when you fund your account.
How To Identify And Trade Gaps
I have shared this before, but feel that it is worth revisiting. All of us have heard about gaps, but very few are able to identify the different types and trade them correctly. Read the article!
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Voyager
This is where I invest, commission-free. They now let you earn interest on your Bitcoin held in Voyager, so you can compound while trading. Not only that, you’ll get $25 in free BTC when you download & fund.
Rewards Code: Scott25
Phemex
This is where I trade with leverage and can also trade spot with no fees.
RoundlyX
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought. Further, they have integrated with Voyager (see above) to offer commission-free purchases.
Rewards Code: WOLF
TexasWest Capital
This is where I spend my days teaching and learning! Our Discord group is a one stop shop for everything you need to learn to trade and control your emotions. Feel free to DM me on Twitter or respond to this email for questions.
Choice IRA by Kingdom Trust
Self-Directed IRA for Americans - allows you to invest in Bitcoin and any other asset for your retirement, with all of the tax benefits of a normal IRA.
Efani
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
A new crypto rewards debit card that I have been testing and loving.
BlockFi
BlockFI is where I personally store part of my long holdings. They offer up to 8.6% annually, compounding, depending on the asset (BTC, ETH or GUSD), which is much better than any legacy savings account or investment.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
Previous Successful Trades
There have been a few that have failed, plenty that never triggered and some that went for small gains. Here are some of the better trades that I have shared in the past few weeks. There are A LOT MORE than I am posting here, but I want to give free members a sample of the success that we have had recently. You can click on the link, push "play" on the chart and advance the price action. You can also read the description and setup from when it was posted. I will share the fresh chart as well.
BAND/BTC
This was shared in the last free issue and did a quick 2x soon after. We had a number of additional successful trades on this higher up as well! This never dropped below the stop noted at 102. Entry was the break of the descending white line, as discussed. You can see all of the trades marked below, including the last bull flag that hit the target at the recent top before the drop.
I am not trading this now, but would consider it again with another break of descending resistance.
ERD/BTC
This was a perfect trade - twice. This dropped down to the 22 sat entry that I mentioned, followed the path closely and finally hit the target at 35 sats. I think this likely has more in the tank, honestly, so I am keeping a large position. If it can hold 35 sats as support, sky is the limit. Here is the updated chart, with fresh levels to watch.
REN/BTC
Here is the updated chart. I am COMPLETELY out of this trade. I took profit at the green line and channel top, as discussed. If this can flip the top of that channel to support, then the all time high is the next target. Above that would be price discovery.
TFUEL/BTC
This did a 10x from the posted first entry at 25. Not much more to say, hit play on the chart!
VET/BTC
This did a 2x from the entry in late May. I recently entered again when it retested 86 sats as support. Levels marked.
XVG/BTC
This is an XVG trade that I posted on Friday. It did not return to 58, but did flip 71 and gave two perfect retests, to the sat, as support before continuing up. Fresh chart with key levels is below. Arrow marks the entry.
ZIL/BTC
We all know how this one turned out. The entry was perfect to the sat. The second entry I posted is circled in green. This was also perfect to the sat. All of the key levels are drawn. If you are still looking to trade this, you can use them as support and resistance. I am completely out of this trade after doing 3X from the first entry, but am watching 204 for another support test.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.