The Wolf Den #593 - Is The Bull Market Back?
Welcome to The Wolf Den! This is where I share my ideas about the market, technical analysis, education and advice regarding trader psychology and emotional control. The newsletter is released every weekday and is completely FREE.
Trade all spot pairs on Bitget for ZERO fees! You read that right, zero fees...
Bitget is the best crypto exchange for both spot and leverage, world’s largest crypto copy trading platform, the official partner of Juventus Football Club and a top 5 exchange by volume as listed on CoinMarketCap!
Sign up using my link to Bitget and you will get:
• Up to an $8000 sign up bonus
• 15% discount on ALL futures trading fees
• 0 fees on ALL spot market pairs
In This Issue:
Is The Bull Market Back?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
ETH Vs. BSC
Coinbase Made A Documentary
Elon Is Back
Ray Dalio Resigns
Generic Blockchains Don’t Work. Building A Layer 1 Specifically For DeFi | Piers Ridyard, CEO Radix
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Is The Bull Market Back?
Bitcoin's price has barely risen 3% and the crowd has somehow managed to completely flip biases, exclaiming that "the bull market is back!" Monday, the assumption was that there was an emergency Fed meeting because everything was breaking... and now there was apparently an emergency Fed meeting because they are ready to pivot!
Which one is it?
It doesn't matter, and none of us will know.
What I want you to realize is that sideways price action makes anxious investors go stir-crazy.
OGs will remember when Bitcoin did absolutely nothing from August of 2018 to early November of 2018. No amount of poking it with a stick was able to trigger a rally. Instead, price fell off of a cliff, losing 50% of its value in a matter of weeks.
After that blood bath was over, price chopped sideways for another 3.5 months until Bitcoin popped to the upside, kicking off the 2020/2021 bull market.
Quiet periods in the crypto market are almost always followed by a deafening explosion. A look at the charts proves this. Unfortunately, this means that investors not only have to wait out an inevitable move, but they don't know which direction it will go.
It's a coin flip.
If the Fed does pivot, Bitcoin "should" break to the upside. If anything else collapses in the global economy, then we can expect all hell to break loose.
When Bitcoin was trading between 3K and 4K, the consensus was that triple-digit price action was likely. The reality? It was the buying opportunity of a lifetime. The crowd seems to share a similar feeling about the current price. It "has" to go down further. The reality? 20K is probably a great buying opportunity, just like 10K would be if it comes.
Nobody knows. So just stack sats.
So say this with me.
There will be another bull market.
There will be another bull market.
There will be another bull market.
It is only a matter of time.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Price is predictably struggling to break the 50 MA on the daily chart. No surprises here. As you know, I view everything that is happening now (and since June) as sideawys chop.
Legacy Markets
"US equity-index futures fell as investors took a pause from a rally driven by bets for less hawkish central banks, and sought more evidence that inflation is moderating."
Key events this week:
OPEC+ meeting begins, Wednesday
Fed’s Raphael Bostic speaks, Wednesday
Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
US initial jobless claims, Thursday
Fed’s Charles Evans, Lisa Cook, Loretta Mester speak at events, Thursday
US unemployment, wholesale inventories, nonfarm payrolls, Friday
BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks at event, Friday
Fed’s John Williams speaks at event, Friday
Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.9% as of 8:11 a.m. New York time
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.9%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%
The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.9%
The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
The euro fell 0.8% to $0.9908
The British pound fell 1.2% to $1.1340
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.45 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 1.6% to $20,013.69
Ether fell 2% to $1,334.87
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.70%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 1.93%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 13 basis points to 4.01%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $86.66 a barrel
Gold futures fell 1% to $1,713.90 an ounce
ETH Vs. BSC
I found an interesting article that offers a balanced side-by-side comparison of Ethereum and Binance Smart Chain. The article makes the valid argument that Ethereum is more popular in the west and “tends to dominate most English language crypto news sites” and that “Binance is popular in densely populated, non-English speaking countries.” This differentiation in media coverage is probably why consumers in the U.S. rarely hear much about the 4th largest cryptocurrency (BNB), but hear so much about the 2nd largest (ETH).
The article is a great summary of the various differences and similarities, and may make you question your biases towards one or the other.
Coinbase Made A Documentary
Love 'em or hate 'em, Coinbase deserves credit where credit is due. Their documentary, releasing this Friday, will show the good, bad, and ugly of the tech startup turned public behemoth. Coinbase has made immense strides in ensuring that our sector stays at the forefront of policymakers' minds.
This documentary is just one example.
"I hope you all go and see the film - and that policymakers see it as well. I believe it will help advance the cause of cryptocurrency, showing the motivations of the many hard-working people driving this industry forward" - Brian Armstrong.
Elon Is Back
Elon Musk is once again interested in purchasing Twitter for $44 billion.
Twitter stock jumped +12% on the news that Musk will honor his $44 billion offer to buy the social media platform. The original deal was to buy the company at $54.20 per share, which is what he is now offering. There are endless rumblings as to why Musk has changed his mind, but at the end of the day, what matter is the impact that this will have on crypto and free speech. Twitter has become the go-to hub for social interaction around crypto and fostering that spark will go a long way.
This is likely great news for our space.
Ray Dalio Resigns
Legendary hedge fund manager and founder Ray Dalio has stepped down from Bridgewater Associates. He started the fund in his 2 bedroom apartment in 1975, and managed to turn his idea into the largest hedge fund in the world - with 140 billion in AUM.
People rarely step down in the midst of a bull market, but I am sure that Bridgewater will continue to thrive into the future.
Generic Blockchains Don’t Work. Building A Layer 1 Specifically For DeFi | Piers Ridyard, CEO Radix
Piers Ridyard is a CEO at RDX Works, a core developer of the DeFi protocol, Radix. We met with Piers at Mainnet by Messari to talk about why Radix is building the decentralized finance-focused blockchain and how he sees the future of DeFi.
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Proud sponsor of The Wolf Den Newsletter. The world's biggest crypto copy trading platform, up to a $3000 bonus for signing up.
I use RoundlyX to buy small amounts of Bitcoin every single day. They automatically round up my credit card purchases (with 10x multiplier) and invest them in crypto. Absolutely brilliant. Passively invest money you don’t need without a thought.
Rewards Code: WOLF
Concierge Phone Service for Americans that protects your from SIM Swaps and other phone related hacks. I cannot stress enough how amazing this service is.
Subscribe to my YouTube channel for free daily content.
Follow me on Twitter at @scottmelker. This is where I am constantly updating my trades and sharing ideas.
On-chain and fundamental analysis, research, predictions and indicators, all in one place. Highly recommend.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
IF YOU HAVE ANY ISSUE WITH THE NEWSLETTER OR YOUR SUBSCRIPTION, PLEASE CONTACT: PREMIUMSUPPORT@GETREVUE.CO