The Wolf Den #55 - BTC Dominance And Alt Setups
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
Charting dominance is a bit of a meme. I really don't believe in it, but since so many people do it, it has become a thing which makes it worth watching. It was clearly rejected at descending resistance 2 weeks ago and is now breaking what I view as the key support. If it continues to drop... alt season becomes likely. I do NOT expect alt seasons like 2017, so adjust expectations. To me it means that we can trade alts safely for profit. That's it.
SETUPS
BAND/BTC
BAND is a gift that keeps on giving. 12936 is the key resistance now and price has been consolidating below it in a bull flag. I expect a nice pop up from this flag (which is potentially already breaking out). Targets are shown based on the recent highs and the length of the flagpole. When you have a bull flag, you measure the flagpole and then take that measure move from the breakout to determine the target.
BCH/BTC
Same as LTC, ETH and TRX. Bull div from last week is still pushing up, price looks like it should follow. First this needs to flip the blue zone to support. Next target would be the descending line. If that breaks, this has likely bottomed. Read the ETH, LTC and TRX descriptions I wrote below for how to approach this. It's redundant.
CELR/BTC
This has been a beast already, even with the small moves. That's the beauty of low sat coins - when they move a few sats you make a ton of money. I am still in with 25% of my original position from 23. I sold on the way up at 37, 30 and 33 respectively. I am planning to hold the rest for the foreseeable future, as I think this setups still has a lot of potential. It broke that huge descending line, signaling an end to the macro down trend. It also broke the range high at 27, which was the bottom consolidation. Now it is holding above 27 and looks ready to break through the local descending black line. You can use Fibonacci levels are longer term targets, as shown. They actually line up almost perfectly to where you would draw support and resistance - which happens often. Conservative targets are definitely 33 and 42.
COTI/BTC
COTI has been ranging and trying to find a bottom. It's at the top of the range, so a flip of 233 to support would signal the bottom is in - much like we saw with ZIL. Targets are shown with Fibonacci levels - I would expect at least 280s or so assuming this gets out of the range.
DOGE/BTC
DOGE is in it's longest accumulation phase between cyclical pumps ever. Just a reminder to never overlook this one. As expected, it's bouncing from support at 26. If it breaks the descending line, I will look to the range highs. After that, hopefully a full DOGE cycle to 100 at least.
ERD/BTC
I posted this setup on Twitter when it broke 22 sats, because it was not a newsletter day. That was my entry - I sold 50% at 30 sats and have bids once again at 22 to refill the entire position, which very well may not happen. Either way, 22 was a key level, so I expect it to be retested, or front run at 23-24. Not being greedy, my target is simply 35. If it flips that, I would be willing to reenter or hold a bit for higher targets. Stop loss here would be 19-20, depending on your risk tolerance. Size your position accordingly.
ETH/BTC
I posted the daily bullish divergence with RSI last week and price has moved up since. This has also broken the descending resistance, which should signal that this was a bottom and price is headed up. "Should!" Things never seem to really work out as they should, do they? Fibonacci levels show the targets of this potential move - I will update further if it gets that far, of course. For now, it's holding the 23.6% as support, which could be a decent entry if you believe it will continue.
FTM/BTC
This thing has given so many opportunities to make money it's almost criminal. It is working on yet another resistance to support flip at 59 sats. If 59 holds (that's the entry for a trade now, but a bit risky after it's been so good). We will target the fibs shown below. I ultimately would expect 91 on this move, for another 50% profit. Above that would take some real effort, but totally possible.
LINK/BTC
Link ultimately held support in the demand zone. My last update showed that if it hit the red area, it was likely to break down. It didn't and continued up like a champ. Now it is once again testing a significant zone of resistance. What I am watching for now is a potential Adam & Eve double bottom. This pattern occurs when there's a sharp drop and reversal, then price comes back down and makes a second rounded bottom. This would be confirmed with a break of the red line. After all of this movement up, I can't see entering now - but if it breaks that red line and flips it to support, sky is the limit. The measured move based on the depth of the pattern would target roughly 515, as seen below.
LTC/BTC
It has been a week since I shared the daily bull divs on a number of large caps. As I said, they can take a really long time top lay out and start moving. It looks like that is finally starting to happen for Litecoin. The local resistance is the red line at 4724. Flipping that to support should send this to the next level. Ultimately, we are watching for a break of the descending black line, which would signal a true bottom and reversal with much higher targets. I will update that if necessary - too much needs to happen first to worry about it for now.
TFUEL/BTC
I do not chase pumps and will not be entering this. I missed it, even though I charted it for you guys and had the setup perfectly nailed. That said, if you are interested in trading this and like the fundamentals (apparently a potential deal with Netflix etc.), then 64 could be a nice entry. It may have already been front run on the drop today. Key areas are marked. Again, I am not interested because even with the chart, we have seen these huge pumps revert all the way back to the beginning.
TRX/BTC
This looks like a pressure cooker that is ready to explode. A week later, RSI is still pushing up with little price movement. Further, RSI broke through it's own resistance and retested it perfectly as support. Price tends to follow a move like that. All of that said, we need to flip 160 first - just like Litecoin is finally breaking it's own local resistance. Then we target the fibs and the descending black line. If that breaks, the bottom should be in and we should be heading up. Use fibs as targets for now - if it keeps going up, I will give more targets.
WRX/BTC
Just a quick update to tell you nothing has changed at all. Still a potential double bottom that cannot be traded for now. Either way, It is still holding support in this demand structure. Hopefully it will finally close a daily candle above and start to move. I am in this.
XTZ/BTC
This is one of very few alts that I am genuinely interested in beyond just trading, but it's been an absolute gift for us as traders. As you know by now, I bought the first retest of the top white line on March 13th. I waited well over a month for that entry with bids sitting there and then waited almost as long for it to actually go up. It went up nearly 50% from there and I sold. We then placed bids in the same spot again, which filled at the dead bottom of the recent move. Really perfect. It is at resistance now at the pink line. If it flips this, I expect a move to the recent high and then all time high. If it flips that top white line, sky is the limit. Stop loss is still below the second white line, in my opinion, with a bit of room to avoid a wick. For now, I think it continues up. If it doesn't, catch the same bid again!
ZIL/BTC
I shared this chart last week and on Tuesday and it played out perfectly so far - exactly to the sat at 94. I filled at 94 and 95 - my bids had been sitting there for days. It immediately popped and headed back towards the top. I am still looking for a move back to the black line and then hopefully above if Bitcoin behaves. If you did not catch this yet, there's always a chance it drops back down to the 94 area for another test. If it does, it's a bit less likely to hold, but the R/R is good with a stop somewhere below 90 to account for any shenanigans. The next entry would be a flip of the black line at 119.
This range was a bottom at all time lows. Now we have broken it, so in theory this should be a real reversal over time. Below are longer term targets based on Fibonacci levels and resistance. You can use all of those lines as you see fit, if this continues up and does not range down here further.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor.