The Wolf Den #530 - Is Bitcoin The Only Commodity?
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In This Issue:
Is Bitcoin The Only Commodity?
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
Who Will Rescue BlockFi?
Is GBTC A Good Buy?
Celsians Are Still Receiving Rewards
NBA Star Tokenized His Career And Is Making It Possible For Everyone Else - Spencer Dinwiddie
Why This Emirati Billionaire Invested $100 Million To Build Metaverse Cities | Ali Sajwani, DAMAC
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
Is Bitcoin The Only Commodity?
A soundbite of Gary Gensler talking about Bitcoin grabbed the attention of the entire crypto space. Gary was rambling on about “speculation, tokens, securities, and crypto financial assets" in his typical fashion.
There was little said of any particularly interest, until Bitcoin was specifically mentioned and some questionable commentary followed.
Seemingly everyone "quoted" the statement and immediately jumped to the same false conclusion.
This was what people shared - Gary Gensler says Bitcoin is the only commodity.
I went digging for the interview myself to confirm this point and concluded that either I am crazy or the crowd is blind. Gary is very careful with his words, stopping, starting, and restarting, but nothing major was edited below.
"Many of these crypto-financial assets have the key attributes of a security. So some of them are under the SEC. Some, like Bitcoin, and that’s the only one I am going to say because I am not going to talk about any one of these tokens, my predecessors and others have said they’re a commodity."
Goldman Gary is not definitively saying that Bitcoin is the ONLY commodity in the digital asset space.
Sorry, you'll need to pick a different fight or find something else to be outraged about today.
First off, he is non committal as to his own thoughts, clearly mentioning “others and predecessors.” Second, it appears that he is categorizing crypto into two groups - securities and commodities. Fine. Third, Gary clearly only wants to talk about Bitcoin, as usual. He likely wants to avoid putting a spotlight on other coins, especially while legislators are forming policy, regulators are waiting for a mandate, and litigators are attacking Ripple and others.
Gensler is clearly stating that Bitcoin is a commodity, not a security. He is making no specific statement about the status of any other coin.
Here is what SBF had to say.
"To be clear he said BTC was the only cryptocurrency he was comfortable saying was a commodity, while many were securities. It didn't address explicitly what all others were."
It's easy to jump to convenient conclusions, but it is essential that we search for the truth. This is a story that is yet to be written.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Boring.
For the exercise, I dug into the 4-hour chart, knowing that the larger time frames are what truly matters at the moment. By I think, by now, we all know about the weekly 200 MA and 2017 ATH and there's little to discuss there.
We have a potential inverse head and shoulders, which we have seen play out on multiple altcoins as well. To confirm this pattern, we need a clear break of the descending black neckline with an increase in volume. Head and shoulders patterns require a specific volume pattern to be valid, which includes a spike in the left shoulder, then head, then on the breakout from the right shoulder. As you can see, the target is roughly $28,000, which lines up perfectly with the horizontal resistance from the last breakdown. This target is dependent on where the breakout occurs.
Right now, this is just an idea.
I used to use the Ichimoku Cloud as my primary technical tool. Yesterday, I interviewed Josh Olszewicz, who's early videos on the cloud helped me to learn the technique. This inspired me to take another look.
As you can see, price has entered the bottom of the 4-hour cloud. When the cloud bottom is flipped to support, you expect a move from edge to edge, meaning that you target the top of the cloud. This is around $24,600.
The light blue Tenkan (a moving average) is currently acting as local resistance. The large red cloud is a signal of general market bearishness.
Legacy Markets
What to watch this week:
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is interviewed by LinkedIn’s chief economist, Tuesday
US GDP, Wednesday
ECB President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak at ECB event, Wednesday
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks, Wednesday
China PMI, Thursday
US personal income, PCE deflator, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Eurozone CPI, Friday
US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 5:50 a.m. New York time
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%
The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was unchanged at $1.0584
The British pound was little changed at $1.2259
The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 135.94 per dollar
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.23%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 1.64%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.48%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.4% to $111.15 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,827 an ounce
Who Will Rescue BlockFi?
When news first broke of FTX extending a $250 million emergency line of credit to BlockFi, it appeared to be the only offer on the table. BlockFi was, “in serious talks” and the decision was to be made very soon, or so we thought.
Supposedly, a leaked call from Morgan Creek Capital led by Mark Yusko has revealed that there is far more competitive interest in BlockFi beyond FTX. The list includes Morgan Creek, a major investor in BlockFi, and other venture funds with their own proposals.
The dialogue of the call has not been made public, but leaks suggest that Morgan Creek is concerned about their investment in BlockFi if the FTX deal is accepted. Essentially, if BlockFi were to be bought out, BlockFi's early investors would likely walk away with nothing.
This has raised questions about order in which salvaged funds would be distributed. Zach Prince, the CEO of BlockFi seems to have prioritized customer funds first. This makes sense - if customers are left wanting then there is no business to salvage.
Rumor has it that there is a possible win-win scenario for everyone. Mark Yusko said he is, “open to an in-between deal with FTX” and that talks with SBF may be possible. More to come.
Is GBTC A Good Buy?
A July 6 deadline for an SEC ruling on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust conversion application looms.
There are pros and cons to GBTC right now. With the discount so low, some investors see an opportunity. If Grayscale's ETF were to be approved, it would be an epic catalyst.
Pros
Almost 30% discount - huge
Discount covers fees of normal trading and GBTC holding
Michael Sonnenshein (CEO) is 100% committed to ETF conversion
Jane Street and Virtu Financial will be partners if ETF happens
SEC has another filing to answer by July 6
Cons
You don't own "real" Bitcoin
The discount can drop lower
SEC does not seem interested in approving an ETF
Unnecessary volatility
Will a premium ever return?
Personally, I am buying normal Bitcoin. But that doesn't mean that GBTC is bad if it's your cup of tea and you understand the pros/cons.
Celsians Are Still Receiving Rewards...
Despite all of the bad news, rewards are still being "earned" on the platform - wild considering no money can actually leave a user's account. Not to be the bearer of bad news, but this isn't a guarantee that things are going to clear up. The good news is that Celsius has managed to successfully pay off some USDC and WBTC loans that were due, but there are more to come. There's also the possibility that the market dumps and the situation instantly goes south. Regardless, I think everyone wants to see investors and users made whole!
NBA Star Tokenized His Career And Is Making It Possible For Everyone Else - Spencer Dinwiddie
NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie and former financier Solo Ceesay are putting their heads together to build the new creator economy for Web3.0. Their goal? To empower more meaningful and fulfilling fan experiences. I sat down with them at Consensus to discuss their journey together thus far and what we can expect to see moving forward. We chatted about why Spencer went all in on crypto, why Solo made the switch from Wall Street to the Metaverse, and their newly coined term “Web2.5.”
Sponsored by Mercury and Vauld.
Why This Emirati Billionaire Invested $100 Million To Build Metaverse Cities | Ali Sajwani, DAMAC
I sat down with Ali Sajwani, an Emirati businessman from one of the richest families in the country, whose construction business is responsible for many of the UAE's iconic luxury properties. Recently Ali started a new company D-Labs, that invests in building cities, but with a twist: it builds cities in metaverse. What is it and why Ali Sajwani decided to put $100 million in this venture? Find out in this interview!
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
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