The Wolf Den #529 - On Perfect Timing
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In This Issue:
On Perfect Timing
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Legacy Markets
$100M Hack
Goldman Sachs To Buy Celsius?
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Neal Stephenson & Peter Vessenes
My Recommended Platforms And Tools
On Perfect Timing
So if I can sell this coin, at this specific time, to enter into another coin, at this other specific time, then flip back to the other coin at the right time…
This thought process plagues the mind of the crypto enthusiast. The inclination to move funds toward a shinier object or irrationally cut bait with a frustrating investment is pervasive, especially in the depths of the bear market.
There's a persistent urge to just DO SOMETHING to help your portfolio improve.
As tempting as this thought process sounds, it tends to end poorly, regardless of market conditions. Playing shitcoin roulette is akin to gambling.
But there is some value to the feeling.
There are bad investments and trades that you are emotionally attached to that are often worth cutting. Realizing that you are making an emotional decision is half the battle. What will get you killed is trying to make the jump from one boat to another boat and back with perfect timing.
The waves are crashing overhead left and right, and it's impossible to see far enough ahead to know if bigger waves are coming. Now is not the time to be a hero, but rather to batten down the hatches and ride the storm.
If you are going to cut bait with an asset, then truly cut bait with it based on a strong investment thesis. Moving from a random shitcoin to Bitcoin for the long haul could be a good idea for your portfolio, but not if you are planning to jump back in the second both coins move again. You are extremely unlikely to time the move properly, and there's likely no need to ever own that other asset in the future.
Many altcoins will survive our current storm and will become very strong in the process. But a lot of the investments out there are just patched-up vessels bound to be shipwrecked permanently if things get a little worse.
If you are strongly considering moving weak assets into stronger assets, now is the time to get serious. There's no need to attempt to time it perfectly - do what is your best for your portfolio sooner than later, regardless of the market.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
WEEKLY CHART
Let's stay focused on larger time frames, shall we? As you can see, we have two weekly candle closes below the 200 MA for the first time in history. In March, 2020, we had one weekly close slightly below before a rally the next week that was ultimately the dead bottom.
This week's candle was a spinning top, considered a pause in the market and sign of indecision. We need another candle to get more information.
For now, the support from the 2017 all time high has held, around 20K. That needs to continue holding on candle closes to discuss any bottom scenario.
At the moment there's not much to see. A potentially rally is in sight, especially if we can break back above the 200 MA. Testing that line as resistance is very likely, regardless.
Legacy Markets
Global stocks extended gains on Monday after posting their best performance in a month last week.
What to watch this week:
US durable goods, Monday
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly comments, Tuesday
ECB President Christine Lagarde, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester due to speak at ECB event, Wednesday
US GDP, Wednesday
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks, Wednesday
China PMI, Thursday
US consumer income, PCE deflator, initial jobless claims, Thursday
Eurozone CPI; US construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 7:25 a.m. New York time
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.6%
The MSCI World index rose 2.6%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0577
The British pound was little changed at $1.2266
The Japanese yen was little changed at 135.32 per dollar
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.16%
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 1.54%
Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 2.38%
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $107.97 a barrel
Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,837.70 an ounce
$100M Hack
Horizon was hacked over the weekend for $100m. Horizon is a bridge on Harmony, not to be confused with Horizen, a separate blockchain. If you haven't noticed, DeFi bridges seem to be the target of choice for hackers looking to steal coins. We just saw EGLD’s new bridge undergo a dangerous exploit, Ronin saw a $500m hack a few months ago, and there was the Wormhole bridge, which set a record as the second-largest DeFi hack ever.
Few details have arisen regarding this exploit. The hack raises many questions about the Horizon bridge's security, which apparently relies on a single multi-sig wallet that only needs 2 of 4 signatures to conduct an inside transaction. Not so decentralized. Vitalik has been an outspoken critic of cross-chain bridges, saying that by nature, they are susceptible to hacks.
DeFi is clearly broken at the moment, and each hack or exploit drives us further from the original ethos of decentralizing finance.
Goldman Sachs To Buy Celsius?
This news is being reported far and wide, on every mainstream financial channel. Goldman would be looking to raise $2B to buy the remaining distressed assets from Celsius if they go bankrupt.
However, there is also conjecture that this news is fake.
Simon Dixon is one of the main investors in Celsius, and tweeted the following:
This is a story worth following, as it would be huge news to see Goldman step in, although we have no idea what that would mean for Celsius users.
The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast Ft. Neal Stephenson & Peter Vessenes
Today we’re joined by legendary futurist Neal Stephenson and crypto pioneer Peter Vessenes - the team behind the new Lamina1 blockchain. Neal (Chairman) conceived the idea of the metaverse 30 years ago in his book Snow Crash and Peter (CEO) is the founder of The Bitcoin Foundation. Together they’re building the first-ever carbon-negative blockchain. We got together to discuss how today's metaverse is different from the idea 30 years ago, monetizing the space, what all of this means for the creator economy, and what to expect moving forward.
In this episode with Neal and Peter, we discussed:
About our guests: Neal Stephenson, Peter Vessenes
The metaverse 30 years ago vs now
The early days of Bitcoin: why and how we got in early
Monetization of the metaverse and changing the creator economy
An L1 built for a specific community
Interoperability and multi-chain future
Predicting the future of the metaverse
Why you should learn to code
Capturing memories vs experiencing memories
Built on game engines by game people
Creating compelling visual inputs
Building Lamina1
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.
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